bedsitter23

I did a few posts this year about when candidates attack.  Of course the worst part about a candidate coming to town is a candidate coming to your town.

At least that is my takeaway from a Marshalltown, IA newspaper article that I thought had potential to go viral, and feel is worth sharing.

Marshalltown is a town of 27,000- so it is a decent sized city, helped by the fact that it is midway between Des Moines and Iowa City, and in the framework of Iowa, it is the 16th largest city.  So important.

It is also well known as being home of Billy Sunday- maybe the most famous of the early 20th century evangelical preachers.  Sunday was a baseball player who used the fame to combat the devil alcohol and sexuality.  Another famous person from the city was Cap Anson.  Anson was the first of baseball's greatest players, though his legacy now is more known for being the man who segregated the sport.

Marshalltown also too is the home of Eugene Debs' two-time running mate Ben Hanford, and unexpectedly, home of some of the best local music acts.

In any case, this is worth sharing:

The dust has settled from several high profile candidate appearances in January featuring former President Bill Clinton, Republican presidential candidates Ben Carson and Donald Trump, and former Secreatary of State and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

All put Marshalltown in the national limelight.

But the exposure cost the city $7,071.

hose were expenses the Marshalltown Police and Fire Departments said they incurred for duties ranging from traffic and crowd control to counting visitors entering public facilities.

The only candidate who paid was Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., seeking the Democrat Party's nomination for president. And he is the only one without a Super Political Action Committee funding his campaign.

Trump and Hillary Clinton appearances

By far the highest expense was Trump's visit to the Marshalltown High School Roundhouse early evening Jan. 26, which cost the MPD $3,596 in police overtime, according to an email sent to the Times-Republican last week by Marshalltown Police Chief Mike Tupper.

Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul, drew 1,486 visitors, according to Marshalltown Fire Chief David Rierson.

To a lesser extent, Hillary Clinton's event at Miller MIddle School later the same evening cost $2,474.

She drew 400, said Rierson.

"These costs do not include the salary expenses for salaried employees who do not receive overtime compensation but still worked the events," said Tupper. "These costs also do not include the expenses (time) that were incurred planning and preparing for these events.

Carson and former President Clinton

"Additionally we incurred $800 in expenses for Carson's event at the Best Western Regency Inn Jan. 24, and $201 in expenses for former President Bill Clinton's event (campaigning for spouse Hillary) at Marshalltown Community College Jan. 15," said Tupper.

Tupper said not all candidates requested services and the MPD generally received requests from those who have secret service protection.

Sen. Sanders

"Occasionally, a candidate without secret service protection makes a request, but these are not common and are generally minimal," he said.

"Sen. Sanders was in Jan. 10," (at the BWRI). Tupper said. "He does not have secret service protection and did request security assistance. The Sanders campaign paid. That is a welcome deviation from the norm."

Marshalltown Fire Department

Fire chief David Rierson told the T-R in an email Jan. 29 it had incurred roughly $675 in expenses.

"Since deputy chief Johnson and I are salaried, no overtime was incurred," he said.

Rierson could be see dutifully counting people as they entered political events as part of fire safety concerns.

Offsetting city expenses

However, money spent at numerous Marshalltown businesses and elsewhere by campaigns was noticed.

"The visits from presidential candidates certainly had an impact on the Marshalltown economy," Lynn Olberding, executive director of the Marshalltown Area Chamber of Commerce told the Times-Republican last month.

"(There were) extra visitors at hotels, facility and room rentals, stops in convenience stores and gas stations, restaurants and entertainment."

Marshalltown's image enhanced

Marshalltown's image gained too, she said.

"Visits from Democratic and Republican candidates has shown the media what a great community Marshalltown is and the important role our diverse community makes in the political arena. Iowa continues to be the first in the nation caucus for a reason and every four years, communities like ours play a part on the national stage as candidates vie for votes," she said.

The TL;DR version is that Bernie Sanders paid his way as he did require security (He did not have Secret Service detail as others did).  Whereas the people who have the most, also cost the most- Trump left a bill for $3600 in police overtime and Hillary for an event of 400 incurred almost $2500.

All told $7000 for visits from The Donald, President and Secretary Clinton separately, and Ben Carson.
All
 

I think everyone knows that Iowa has a caucus.

Most states have a primary and that is what I grew up with.  It's just like a general election.

However, Iowa is known for its caucus.

I think people know that it's different, but many don't know how a caucus works.

I think this article from KRCG- the ABC affiliate in Cedar Rapids helps explain.

The bulls, named Ole and Midnight, were fed a large meal and then led to separate pens.

On the ground in each pen was a tarp with pictures of the 2016 candidates for the presidency, one for Democrats and one for Republicans.

Ole wore a blue scarf around her neck and caucused with the Democrats.  Midnight, in a red scarf, did the same with Republicans. After the gates closed, it was a waiting game to see which candidates they would select.

Ole picked Hillary Clinton to win, while Midnight took some time before settling on Donald Trump.

Pretty glamorous and the pundits were right, Clinton and Trump won.

See you in the next four years

Following up from last week, means not much has changed, so just sharing the new stuff.

Rand Paul- Rand has run a social media game, but I can't recall any TV ads before now.  Stand With Rand talked about freedom, but the way I heard it was "Vote for me.  I am the only guy who is going to legalize Weed."  I am not sure what to make of Paul.  His dad had a dedicated group of followers.  My friend on the Cruz campaign said they went there, but of course, he would say that.  Paul says he has 1000s of college students who will vote for him, but I think they went over to Bernie.  We will see.

Jeb Bush- When Jeb's PAC is not attacking Marco Rubio, Jeb is playing the meme "You need to elect a governor" and he reminds you three Governors are running.  Which of course tells you 1) Bobby Jindal dropped out (Who knew?) and  2) tells you Jeb is competing with Christie and Kasich.  Kasich has been a nonentity in Iowa.  Of course, if you are following the national campaign, you know him, but this is his first mention.  Which makes me think this will cause Bush supporters to realize Kasich is an option.  So while I postulate last week, Bush lost his support to Christie, he will probably lose everyone else to Kasich now.  Bush, of course, is still running his billboards, and with his previous strategy, is positioning himself as a Washington outsider.  Which of course, is true by record.  He is not a Senator like Cruz or Rubio, and it's worked well for Carson and Trump.  Bush was a businessman and a Governor.  He has not spent time in Washington.  Though, of course, the time he spent there visiting father and his brother.  So, good look with that.

Donald Trump- This household of course checks off all the liberal marks, so that means near daily fliers from HilRod and The Bern, but also phone calls and direct mail from The Donald.  21st Century Politics is very targeted.  If you are a members of the Teachers Union, a registered Democrat and subscribe to Mother Jones, Ted Cruz isn't going to waste money on you, right?  Makes sense.  Still, Trump is a brand, so in theory, anyway, i see where it makes sense to try and reach out to everyone.  I received a call from an anti-Trump PAC last night in which said he has been the most vocal of all candidates in support of Universal Healthcare.  Which of course, 1) backfired at this house.  (hmmm.. maybe I should consider this guy) and 2 seems rich coming from someone in the Romney camp.

Marco Rubio- I mentioned this last time, but still bears mentioning- his blitz of ads includes the one that says he is the only one who is able to beat Hillary.  I don't like the "I might not be your favorite candidate, but I am electable" strategy.  That is how John Kerry won in Iowa we are told (which probably isn't even 100% true, Kerry had a better ground game in Iowa than Dean, that is why he won), so while it might be bad long-term strategy, i think it might be bad short-term strategy too.

Ben Carson - Ben has moved from his "United Colors of Benetton" ads to one where he talks about being the candidate who has actual lives in his hand.  I am sure that is a powerful message, though I took it as a darker turn of phrase in a "I can decide if you live or die" way.  I notice Carson tends to use still pictures in his ads instead of videos, which I think is smart.  People like the idea of Carson, and this guy looks confident, trustworthy, even stoic, as opposed to someone who mumbles in a sleepy, low energy manner.  Not to slam the guy, but his poll numbers have more serious issues than me making comments.

You know, Iowa is about over, and so I am going to leave this here.  There are two weeks to go, and anything can happen, but I think it is safe to say, this will be the final rundown of TV ads in Iowa.

Donald Trump-  The Donald's ads talk about cutting the head off Isis (see what he did there) and are very us against them.  Trump got his theme from Reagan, and these well-produced ads are a throwback to the USA vs Soviet Union heyday of the 80s.  Trump is switching out the USSR for Isis.  They look old school Presidential and are a better play than his radio ads which feature him barking about all the things he stands for.  It should be noted Trump's support has a ceiling, but it also a basement.  It's hard to think of him in terms of Bernie or Ron Paul, but indeed, some people will vote for Trump no matter what.

Ted Cruz- So Ted Cruz wins Iowa.  Even if Trump wins, I don't see any way that Cruz doesn't come out the winner.  He has done the right things and it is paying off.  So Cruz doesn't really have to run ads.  Like at different times in this election cycle where Trump and Carson did not run ads, Cruz gains nothing by running ads.  That is modern day politics, you are only running ads if you are running behind.  Now Cruz has run ads and they are Cruz looking Presidential.  Agree or disagree with the guy, he's run a good campaign here.  Now, what does that say for the Nomination, I am not sure.  Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa and both seemed like they might have a shot and failed at a nationwide scale.  How does it go from here, I don't know.

Mike Huckabee- Despite lagging way behind, Mike has run some ads.  Huckabee is the guy who drunk texts.  Remember how we loved each other eight years ago.  Well, I still love you.  Don't you?  Remember how good we were?  You still love me right?

Ben Carson- While the GOP ads almost to a man talk about Isis and talk about Obamacare and the issues of the day, Carson's ad is about "Hands'.  These hands work and these hands give and these hands hug and in Carson's case, these hands heal.  This could be a Coke ad.  This ad was born of Benetton not Rove.  Touchy feely is a Democrat thing.  This "Come together" approach is totally Hillary/Barack, not Trump and fearmongering.  Which you know gives me an idea.  There is one way and only one way Carson will be President, but i think it will work.  Carson has a life altering experience (he can fake a campaign bus crash), comes out and says he was wrong about Obamacare, wrong about everything and has been reborn a liberal.  Laugh if you want, but this is the only way you are getting elected, Ben, so you can thank me later.

Bernie Sanders-  Bernie ads are pretty much what you expect.  I don't know what else to say

Hillary Clinton- Hillary's ads are now aimed at whoever the GOP candidate will be.  Her ads feature quotes from Trump, Cruz, Christie, Jeb, and Marco which scare liberals.  It's clear, right?  Ignore Bernie.  Remind people you are the 'electable' one.  I think Hillary shouldn't count out Bernie (who one poll said was trailing by 2 points in Iowa).  i know this seems like a good idea (to assume you have the nomination) but is it?

Marco Rubio- I have a pretty good idea how Iowa will play out.  Cruz and Trump will be 1 and 2.  Carson will have something, though I think his momentum has not only stalled, but stopped; he will get something.  Someone will get 4th and someone will surprise.  Everything seems to indicate Rubio would be the 4th major player.  I am not saying he won't be. Indeed, nearly all polls show Rubio in third at this point.  Still, I have doubts.  Of course, what I am saying is not unfounded.  Indeed, conventional wisdom suggests that there will be a voice for the "moderate" candidate.  Which is why Jeb is attacking Marco hard.  It is also why Jeb is going after Marco and not Trump or Cruz or Carson.  My guess is Christie will be the surprise.  He has not done much here, but he did get the endorsement of the state's Republican governor.  Even then, it could of course by Rand or Carly who end up being the surprise here.  I doubt it.  Perhaps, John Kasich will have a last minute surge. 

I want to spend some time talking about Rubio's ads.  Rubio is the GOP's Hillary Clinton.  His ads press how Presidential he is.  Indeed, he has the look, though it takes more than that to convince.  Rubio has been running as the candidate who will beat Hillary.  Indeed, the same strategy as HilRod, "I am just going to ignore all else" mentality.  Interestingly, Rubio has been running ads during football games (and this time of year, there's a lot of those) which make it look like they have called him into the studio to ask him some football themed questions (No, really.)  It's like those fake news ads that they run about "Doctors announce a breakthrough today" and it really an ad for a laxative.  The interesting follow up is Cruz's PAC has run a disingenuous ad which compiles footage of the news of the day-  With ISIS on the move, Iran and Russia acting out, Syria in peril, what would Marco Rubio do,  and then cuts to a clip of Rubio saying "I know I got this debate, but I got to check on my fantasy football team.  Oh snap!

Jeb Bush- Jeb has spent a lot of money trying to be where Rubio is.  His PACs have hit Rubio hard on being a flip-flopper.  The fact that Rubio has worked with Chuck Schumer on an immigration "amnesty" bill has drawn straight fire from the likes of Limbaugh and Mark  Levin and anybody who thinks they have a shot at the White House.  Bush has spent money on a billboard campaign which includes quotes of Jeb.  I have not seen the Donald Trump one, but these are all over Des Moines, and have been mocked all over the internets.  I can name a few reasons while this isn't working, but you probably already know.

Bush's campaign is a slight variation on the Hillary strategy and again, is a pretty textbook one.  With his record as a governor, he has a claim on being the candidate with most administrative experience.  Indeed, what he is trying to stress is that he could govern from Day One.  Although I dont know that this was going to be successful, it did seem like a good angle.  Then, I saw the next ad in the series.  Jeb claimin to be the right person in the White House to make decisions on terrorism.  Jeb is the right person to decide what we need to do to take action.  I am going to slow down a bit- a Bush in the White House being the man to make the decision whether we should go to war overseas or not.  Yeah, maybe shouldn't have went with that angle.

After the talk of polls in yesterday's post. I figured it was once again time to break out the Al Bedsitter Bumper Sticker poll.

I introduced this in 2012 for the general election and predicted Obama's victory which means I have been 100% accurate.

Of course, it's flawed, and I gave some of the reasons here. 

I believe in the veracity of the poll because of the simple fact that only the most dedicated voters will choose to represent themselves by applying a bumper sticker to their car.  Fads come and go, but loyalty is a sticker (I also made the choice to include yard signs as well).  

I do have to allow myself that I have to drive safely first of all, and so if I am uncertain of a sticker it won't count (This year has been particularly rough, and so when I see a sticker that says simply "Bernie" or the only word I can make out is "Rand", I only assume that it's for those candidates.

In any case, I stand by doing my best.  I consider myself in prime position- in Des Moines in the most purplish of states- or on Interstate 80 the road that goes from San Francisco to New Jersey.

Ok, so it's caucus time, so I am hesitant to say that this is a "can't miss" predictor.  However, I do stand by it as some sort of indicator.  It does show the devotion that follows certain candidates (even when pundits say Bernie Sanders has no chance).  Also, conventional wisdom suggests an establishment candidate like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush will win the nomination.  Or when someone says Donald Trump's support isn't for real (it does exist). How can that be when no one loves them enough to affix their name to their SUV.

Anyway, let's get to the results, shall we:

Bernie Sanders 7
Ben Carson 7
Donald Trump 5
Hillary Clinton 3
Rand Paul 2
Ted Cruz 2
Bobby Jindal 1

Others getting votes

Barack Obama 8
Ron Paul 1
Mitt Romney 1

Yes, even now, I would say no one could beat Obama.

Will Carson and Sanders win the nomination (or even Iowa).  I am not sure, though to be fair, they were leading various polls during the last three months while I was conducting mine.

In terms of percentage, things look like this:

Bernie 70%
Hillary 30%

Carson 41%
Trump 29%
Cruz 12%
Paul 12%
Jindal 6%

There's been a lot of talk about neither Carson or Trump being able to finish.  Maybe Cruz indeed is the strongest challenger.  Indeed, maybe there is a base of support for Paul or Jindal. 

I have been keeping track since Labor Day or maybe before.  I will reset everything and  maybe post again when we get closer.  We are in the final 100 day count before the caucus in Iowa.  Perhaps, you got a glimpse of what is to come right here

The interesting part of Presidential politics is that things happen before anything really happen. Know what I am saying?

Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the last election because of abysmal poll numbers, though by the time the actual campaign came around, everyone had a look at the front runner status- Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich- and the Iowa caucus was won by someone with even worse historical numbers- Rick Santorum. Hindsight tends to think maybe things would have worked out for Tim.

So, while it's not surprising to see a Jim Gilmore and Rick Perry drop from the race, one tends to want to say to Scott Walker "Where's the Fire?". That seems like a pretty obvious reaction, even moreso when you're watching a bought-and-paid-for "Walker for President" TV ad about 2 hours after he announced he was dropping out.

I especially wish Hunter S Thompson was alive for this campaign. He would probably say something about 'peak'ing, and I think it is true.

There is a certain peak that a candidate hits and once they reach that top it's nowhere but down. For an easy example, look at Rick Perry and Chris Christie who spent time as sure-fire next Presidents. (I haven't quite thrown Jeb Bush in there yet, but the jury is out).

It's not always so drastic but it exists. Dick Gephardt had a promising first campaign, but a horribly desperate second. John McCain peaked around 2002 which was enough to get him a party nomination two years later but not enough to put him a formidable November fight. Giuliani was the first of many recent candidates who plateaued too early in the cycle.

Hillary of course hit her peak four years ago but thinks that being the only candidate in the field is enough (WE are finding out that might not be the case).

It is also the fear Trump should be feeling.

Lest we forget, two and a half months ago, Walker was a front runner. He wasn't the biggest name, but he had a sizable lead. Now, he is in tenth at three percent support in Iowa.

He won't win here now and he needed too.  I see a five person race now- Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Cruz and possibly Jeb.  There may be another - Kasich or Jindal or Rubio though, I have my doubts.

Hunter S probably would have given it a sports metaphor, perhaps a baseball team that barely makes the playoffs but gets hot and wins the World Series, or vice versa.

Which brings me to another thing Hunter S might have said.  Scott Walker's problems started when he tried to outcrazy crazy.  That probably should have been our sign.

Donald Trump wants to build a wall between us and Mexico, Scott Walker will do that AND he will build a wall between the US and Canada.

Walker had some less than likable ideas to begin with, but this made him look crazy (Note: though it may seem this way, I really don't want Walker to run for President.  I have strong suspicions Trump may be a Democratic plant, because this is exactly what Dems would want.  I agree with the head of the AFL-CIO who got in the zinger, Scott Walker is still a disgrace, at least now, he's not a national disgrace.  Hey-oh!)

Lastly, I want to invoke HST one more time, as I get the feeling this election cycle that the more campaign ads that a candidate runs, the worst their campaign is in.

Rick Perry (and it may be his PAC's fault not him) ran a lot of ads, and they just made me sad for Rick.  They came off desperate.  Hillary runs ads hourly, which seems unnecessary, but show that she is losing.  (Her ads are optimistic and bright, though they should just be 30 seconds of "Seriously, you are not going to vote for the self-proclaimed Socialist Jew?") .  So it was with Walker (and Jindal) who have started to run ads.

Meanwhile, Trump doesn't need to.  He is the brand name.  Bernie is sort of a different animal, but he has that Ron Paul kind of support- people making homemade signs and putting it in their yards.  It's incredible to see someone have success with that.

There's still a lot of ground to cover, of course, and the field will probably reset itself a few times before we get there, but it is always interesting.

Another conversation I had this week was with some Californians who said they hardly recognized Carly Fiorina in her State Fair clothes.



Courtesy NPR

Indeed, it is a good joke to imagine Fiorina asking friends and advisors what one wears to a State Fair.

Still, Fiorina escaped the Fair unscathed.

Remember Fred Thompson.

Thompson was a 'tell like it is' television celebrity outsider candidate who for a moment was our surefire next President (sounds familiar).

Fox News reported that Thompson had 'walked' the Iowa State Fair via golf cart and was decked out in Gucci loafers (a claim Thompson fiercely disputes)

Indeed, history tells us that Fox News's version of the story did not actually occur, but it stuck to Thompson, and sticks to him even now.

Thompson was not the first, nor will he be last.  As far as Iowa missteps go, John Kerry looking butch in his hunting gear ranks near the top.



In any case, Fiorina seems to have it figured out, striking a balance between businesswoman multi-millionaire and common person.  She is surging in the polls and if the Trump train derails, a Fiorina nomination doesn't sound too impossible.

I am occasionally praised for my writing on the Presidential primaries, though it should not be surprising. For months (especially around now) politicos are hanging out in Iowa and New Hampshire waiting for the latest news. I am already in Iowa, so......

So I know what is going on right when it happens.

So when a bunch of "Kelso for President" signs show up in West Des Moines, I am there.

First of all, I am not surprised. He is an Iowan, so he already has an in with local voters. Second, Mila Kunis would be a great First Lady; and lastly, it's not any crazier that Ashton Kutcher could be President than Donald Trump.

Oh, not that Kelso.



Ok, so you know me, and I always have a good laugh at those Quixotic folks who make a run for President.  Just think, politicians with name recognition and sizable resumes and qualifications like George Pataki and Jim Gilmore and even Chris Christie - as known and qualified as they may be- have little to no chance of being President.

Also, with apologies to Lloyd, we haven't voted for a President with Facial Hair since Taft.  Ever since Marx, Lenin and Hitler, we haven't been able to commit to anyone but a clean shaven politico.  I'm not saying that won't change, but it hasn't.

In any case I usually make fun of these little-known contenders, but I am not making fun of Kelso, and here's why

1- He is running a Democrat.  While this race started as a sure Clinton nomination, that looks to be less and less of a possibility.   This may mean the eventual nominee is someone like Joe Biden or Al Gore or even someone like a Jim Webb or Martin O'Malley.  in any case, there are some serious conversations that a 70-year old Jew who has spent the last two decades self-identifying as a Socialist may be the nominee.  That an attorney no one has heard of from North Carolina has any less chance doesn't seem to ludicrous.

2-  While most longshots have websites that look like those Geocities sites and often full of misspellings, and usually some flashing text and bright colors and random capitalization.  Kelso seems to be pretty spot on in making a point and being well written

3- Kelso's platform seems to be mainly about reforming tax laws to put the responsibility on taxing the ultrarich (such as removing the cap on Social Security).  So he's got some well-thought out ideas on income equity.  interestingly, his social platform is Conservative.  He talks about closing the border, preserving the 2nd Amendment, repealing Obamacare, getting tough with Iran- real Conservative issues.

So, I am not sure that I am totally on board  with all of his views, but I appreciate the heck out of them.  I am reading a bio on William Jennings Bryan,  Bryan was very liberal in terms of "Free Silver" but also as we saw from the Scopes Trial, deeply Religious.

Bryan quite simply couldn't exist in today's politics.  It's hard to imagine a Democrat  who would take a strong Conservative social stance.  On the Republican side, things are even less likely to vary.

Take for example, Common Core.  This is something that was supported by several GOP governors - Jindal, Jeb, Christie, Kasich- but as it is out of favor, those same governors (with the exception of Kasich) are falling over themselves to try and distance themselves from it.

Indeed, it seems to be you are agreed on all issues of the Party or your out.  This could be Newt Gingrich forced to go hardline on immigration or Ben Carson pulled to make a strong Gun Rights stance.

Life is gray, but our politics are black and white in 2015.  Can you be pro-gay marriage and anti-abortion?  Could you be for gun laws but against income tax?  Quite simply, there only seems to be 2 stands and you must fit in one.

Anyway, that's a convo for another day.  Here's a shout out to Lloyd Kelso- at least consider him

The 2016 Presidential Primaries  have reached one of its milestones- the Iowa State Fair.

The State Fair is where some of the best campaign moments are made.  It is indeed, the place where I ran into Mike Huckabee leaving the men's room.

It is where Fred Thompson took a drubbing for walking the Fair in his Gucci Loafers.  It is where Obama played bumper cars with his daughter, and Romney manned the grill.

So if you are looking for those moments, you got them.

Hillary wasn't going to take any chances by standing on the Public Forum SThat of course, was where Romney tried to face down hecklers and said Corporations were people.

It's not been a good week for Hillary who seems to be playing LBJ to Bernie Sanders's Eugene McCarthy.  For starters, she made that snapchat joke, which while funny, was also sort of damning.  Clinton seems to be on a downward spiral with no hope.  Some polls were even reporting Sanders was now beating here, and news cycles were dominated by rumors of Joe Biden, or even Al Gore throwing their hat in the ring.

So while Hillary with pork chop and fresh squeezed lemonade was everywhere on Sunday morning, and she celebrated the weekend with a high profile endorsement from long time ex-Senator Tom Harkin; it was still a rough week.

I was looking forward to the Soapbox of course, where unknowns get up and talk in front of a crowd of maybe twelve.  I only saw one name on the schedule that I did not recognize.  With so many name candidates this year, maybe there wasn't room for the random kooks and Quixotic nuts.  It was Mark Everson who was W Bush's IRS Commissioner who was the person I had never heard of.

In a normal year, the headline would have been Jeb Bush.

Jeb had a lot to answer for.  He did get on the soapbox, but that only meant he was open to having answer questions about his brother's decision to go war into Iraq.  More controversial of course was Jeb's decision to temporarily abandon his Paleo diet to have a  fried Snickers.

Still, this campaign isn't so much about you know, candidates and issues and those kind of things, as much as it is about Donald Trump.

Which is why all of the above is second fiddle to the real story-  Donald Trump giving free helicopter rides to kids.

Telling one kid "I'm Batman", the Iowa State Fair had told Trump he would not be allowed to give copter rides, he managed to do so anyway.

Trump managed to skip the soapbox (why should he do the soapbox when everyone is chasing him) but gained points for taking pictures with kids.  Trump hit the fair favorites- Bacon wrappred ribs and red velvet funnel cake.  Besides the Des Moines Register sponsors the soapbox, and Trump is at 'war' with them.

So Trump won the weekend.  But why not?  I like free helicopter rides.  It's something Montgomery Burns or Lex Luthor would do, and it's something that Donald Trump would do.

Why not?  We have talked about the Reality showsims of politics and why shouldn't we drive this to the logical conclusion.  This time four years ago, Tim Pawlenty was getting in front of everyone with an economic plan, and you see where that got him.

Enjoy the bread and circuses.

The 2016 Presidential Race is on, and at least on the Republican side, anyone you thought might run has decided to run. Sure, Romney bowed out, and we haven't heard anything out of Palin, but yeah, otherwise, they're in.

I haven't spent a lot of time on election '16, somewhat because of time constraints but also because of lack of real news or motion.

I do feel incumbent to mention Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride.

I have spent a lot of time here talking about Ernst, who comes off as an adrenaline version of Palin, taking the guns and leather jacket meme to logical and illogical extremes. It's the kind of' Merica F--k Yeah meme, that say you were head of a White Supremacist group that Dylann Roof would want to be part of, you might want to give her thousands of dollars to run her campaign. (Ernst and Steve King have since distanced themselves from Mr Sasse)

There have been plenty of fundraisers and will be many more, but Ernst's Roast and Ride is going to be one of the Top 5. It did occur before the landscape got crowded with the addition of Jeb, Donald, and Christie, but they aren't the types of candidates that would be appreciated at a place like this anyway.

A landmark fundraiser in Iowa had always been Harkin's Steak Fry- a key moment to fundraise as presented by longtime Democrat Senator Tom Harkin (and sadly, not a steak fry, but a catered meal).

Whereas Ernst promised the candidates would ride 38 miles on their bike and then roast a pig.

Some big names came and here is what you need to know (I was hoping to get some of this info out before the Ride, but know that it's happened, my sources will include pre- and post- coverage)

-Marco Rubio doesn't ride bikes. "I need a sidecar", he joked.

-Rick Perry does ride, and he did with Navy Seals in tow. So, here's the payoff you were waiting for



-Ernst gave each candidate 8 minutes to speak and a 10x10 tent

-Oh, and it should probably be mentioned, no candidate has spent more time in Iowa than Perry, and he is ranked 8th in popularity on a good day.  Oh well, those Perry on a bike photos are totally worth it.

-Besides Perry and Rubio, guests were Lindsey Graham, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker

-Huckabee and Carson also rode 'hogs', though they preferred blazers to Perry's all-black biker gear.  Fiorina made her arrival on a John Deere

-The event was enough of a success, it will probably be back, but things look bad for the Ames Straw Poll (last won by Michele Bachmann if that tells you anything) with Huckabee and Graham dismissing it vocally.

-Walker is the front runner and this was the first event where that has been the case.  Walker might have otherwise skipped an event like this, but he can't afford to.  At this point, it sounds like everything is civil, but at some point, everyone is going to come gunning at him

-If you are looking for a storyline thus far (and there have been a handful of these 'big' moments already) it seems to be Fiorina.   She got good buzz at the Iowan GOP's Lincoln Dinner.  I see a lot of social media buzz on Carson, and I suspect Trump may try to go for similar minds who are looking for either a "Washington Outsider" or a "Established Corporate Leader".  Still, it sounds like Fiorina might win converts with her oratory.  All I have read sounds like she is targeting Hillary, but don't count out conventional wisdom.  If Fiorina is indeed dazzling audiences, at some point that should translate to the polls.

-No big news, I suppose (Those Perry biker photos tho) but pointless controversy.  The two major colleges in Iowa sent their mascots.  Iowa's Herky the Hawk showed up, which led to "We didn't know this was a partisian fundraiser.  We thought this was just a thing" apologies.

Herky, the school wants everyone to know is non-partisian.  Cy the (Iowa State) Cardinal similarly was popular (the event took place near the Ames school) and did not appear to engage in any untoward behavior.



I can't say I have a problem with it, and the media spent attention on the outrage that probably did not exist in the first place.  It's hard to argue that an event where more than 1500 people attended and made national event, that some could be a bad thing.