bedsitter23 | Entries tagged with adventures of a battleground state

Ten things I will remember from the Obama rally.

1- Downtown businesses were closed, except Jimmy John's stayed open and was roped off. they could have made a killing, but I don't think they did. I suggested that we could order some subs and have them delivered ten feet away. Some people eventually got that idea.

2- When I get old, I can go to rallies and dress like Uncle Sam.

3. - This rally famously featured the president crying, but we couldn't see any of that

4- In line, my friend R told me a conversation he had lately with a 19-year old "If Obama gets elected. I'm moving to Canada. I hate Obamacare (socialized medicine)." Let that one sink in.

5. Like five years ago, Obama ended his speech with the story of Edith Childs, a supporter in South Carolina, who coined "Fired Up, ready to Go". So, maybe I didn't get a lot of original content, but then again, I knew Bruce was going to end his set with "Land of Hope and Dreams", so why shouldn't Obama play his greatest hits, too.

6. I can't capture the genius of Springsteen's "spontaneous" Adam Sandler-esque campaign rally song "Forward", but he did mention that its hard to come up with words that rhyme with Obama, and it ended with the lyric "Fox news thinks he smokes Marijuana".

7. Besides businesses, there are apartments in the area. There also were the expected 'secret service men on the roof'. I thought about taking a picture of that, but thought it might not be the best idea. The loft apartments meant some people (mostly young adults) were able to watch the rally from inside their house. It also meant when one college-age dude wanted to open his window, the secret service shined a light on him, and with a nod to the Texas Book Depository, made him shut it.

8. Local business made reference to the visit. One boutique advertised "25% off, Michele Obama only"

9. The crowd was fairly civil for 20,000, though for a moment I had a 6'4" guy in front of me. Additionally, not too many things would draw together a hipster in a Sonic Youth stocking cap and a 50-something blue-collar union worker.

10. I did get a political button to add to my collection. There was swag for sale, but the day before the election, it wasn't really moving. No signs were let in, but rallies are constructively created, so we all had Forward! signs in our hands by the end.

Not the greatest pics in the world, but they're mine.. oops, I mean, they are all website exclusives.

( Website exclusives )

Current Music: Faith No More- Angel Dust
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899938.html

Election Day Eve, I made it downtown to watch The Boss.

He had Springsteen with him.

We got there about four hours early and the people in front of us got interviewed with radio.

Things were fairly civil though and it was either warmer or I prepared better, but I didn't shiver like I did outside for Kerry and Edwards eight years ago.

It wasn't the greatest of set ups, and it ended up we were roped into a section that put us a ways away. we jumped the ropes like a few others which bought us about thirty feet (We had confirmation #s and rsvp'd so it was a bit hard to figure out which sectio nwe were supposed to be in the first place (tickets or non-tickets).

Oh, yeah, and I already had voted early, so if Obama finally revealed his socialist Muslim plan, it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

A rockabilly band opened. I have no idea who they were (bad job out of them). I would assume local trio Rumble Seat Riot, but their website doesn't mention it (nor does any of the other prominent local rockabilly acts) .

This was my first time seeing Springsteen, and it wasn't like I could yell out "Badlands" or was going to get a two hour set.

Still, Bruce is amazing. He played four songs, and then one of them was a goofy campaign song. I had mentioned it in an earlier blog post that was based on the Des Moines Register's coverage of Bruce and Barack's Ames stop. The thing is that it doesn't translate well to print.

Bruce was funny, personable, and his voice was amazing. It was an acoustic set, and so there was no Max or no 'guy from Sopranos' (He did say Patti was was in attendance).

He opened with "No Surrender", an okay enough song that sounded like an American folk classic the way Bruce delivered it that night. He followed with "The Promised Land" (from Darkness on the Edge of a town). I wasn't expecting an album cut. Of course, he closed with "Land of Hope and Dreams". "Land.." (like much of the new album) didn't really grab me right away when I listened to it on the radio. However, in a live version, it is as good as any of Bruce's big hits.

There was also an invocation (What? No Jeremiah Wright?) and American flags everywhere (but my Facebook friends say there's never any American flags at Obama rallies?).

Michelle spoke followed by Barry. There is no doubt that Barack may be the best orator we have had in the White House (Clinton may be better on camera, but I have seen both live, and in that atmosphere, listening to Barack can gives you chills).

His speech was very similar to the one he gave when I saw him the other time five years ago when he was running a close second to Hillary.

Still, it was an amazing event to attend. Because of my location and the positioning of the lights, there is a lot of blur on the pictures I took. Additionally, as I said, I wasn't the closest, but we did end up win a decent spot (We actually could have got really close to Bruce, but because of the angling wouldn't have been able to see Barack very well.

I will post photos soon.

Current Music: U2- The Unforgettable Fire
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I am getting close to going to bed. It's going to be called before 10PM, I think, or at least 10:30 as Math becomes Romney's enemy.

Iowa was one of nine states that were supposed to decide the election. Interestingly, it looks like most of those 9 will end up Blue as Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and here in Iowa seem to be solid in Obama's column, and Florida, Nevada and Colorado likely will follow suit.

As I go to bed, Obama leads Iowa with a sizable lead 57-42, much wider than the 5 percentage points the Register had this weekend.

Which means it might be a good time to reflect on my poll. you remember the yard sign poll which gave a preference to Obama.

There were 10 Obama signs and 8 Romney signs with one errant Ron Paul sign thrown in.

Let's do some math:

We throw out the Paul sign (Paul is not even on the ballot) and we get 10 of 18 total signs in support of Obama. 10 over 18 equals 55.55. Rounded up is 56%

Call that 56% in support for Obama and you will see I predicted the election in Iowa to 1 percentage point.

The Register as famous as it is, put Obama's support at 47% and gave him a 5 point lead.

I gave you 56-44. Remember that.

Don't worry. My first 2016 commentary starts tomorrow, so be sure that you tune in so you have all the answers first,

Current Music: Black Sabbath- We Sold Our Soul for Rock 'n' Roll
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899544.html

There were plenty of political ads this year and they were all pretty typical- the tea party slogan- "You've been taxed enough already, and I am going to stop it."

My favorite local race was a tea Partier attacking his opponent for having spent money on buying decorative flower pots to put in downtown Des Moines.

Hmmm.. I thought. I think that sounds reasonable. You want to get people to come downtown to spend money on local business. I am pro-flower pot.

Still, I get it. You have to start cutting somewhere in this era of TEA Parties and vocal Libertarians.

Which means, "I Voted" stickers got nixed in Polk County, Iowa.

Nobody gives a thought to those stickers until they are gone, and they were a big deal on the local Facebooks.

In any case, the county auditor says it wasn't in the budget, and so, no stickers for Polk County voters. Ubiquitous as lollipops from the doctor's office, suddenly they were no more.

Jamie Fitzgerald (the aforementioned Polk County Auditor) did make a point that it was illegal for companies to discriminate against the non-sticker wearers (It is popular here for coffee shops to offer a free latte for people wearing a 'I vote' sticker or something similar).

Fitzgerald says he received an email from the secretary of state's office about the stickers. It says federal law dictates that if a business offers such an incentive they have to offer it everyone — sticker or no sticker.

Current Music: Neil Young-Americana
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Barack Obama spoke in Des Moines last night. he spoke in the East Village- arguably Iowa's hippest area. Home to Zombie Burger, gay bars, boutiques, ZZZ Records, and more.

Iowa's hippest and hottest t-shirt store is also relocated there, and they were not amused.

Obviously, the Secret Service had to comb over everything, and raygun's owner didn't like it.

Surprisingly, this news story hit the internet hard, getting posted on Free Republic and similarright-wing blogs as proof that small business owners hate Obama.

Freepers ran this as it was a repeat of the story of the State Fair beer tent that lost $25,000 when Barry Hussein showed up.

Of course, they would.

Not knowing Raygun, maybe you would jump to that same conclusion. However, it helps to know more about raygun- maker of hip t-shirts (like 'Rock out with your caucus out') that usually contain Iowa in-jokes (like 'No sleep til Brooklyn (Iowa)').

However, you better stop before you make the jump in logic. I wouldn't doubt that half the Raygun staff might not be voting for Obama; but it's only because they are voting for Jill Stein.

Raygun gave us Corporations are people too t-shirts, as well as pro gay marriage t-shirts which people wore to Michele Bachmann rallies ironically.

So, if you see this story, don't bite. I am sure they don't appreciate the uproar caused by a Presidential visit, but there's no chance in hell those small businesspeople are voting Willard.

Current Music: Pet Shop Boys - Yes
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899046.html

America is the example of democracy. We want everyone to follow our lead across the globe.

So we don't have a problem with a few United Nations observers traveling to Iowa to sit in on our election in Iowa, right?

Iowa's Secretary of State Matt Schultz has a problem with that.

If they show up, he's arresting them.

You may remember Schultz. He has been fighting a one-man war against voter fraud, looking to pass laws and try to ferret out voter fraud wherever he sees it. His extensive work this summer has already brought 2 Canadians and one Mexican to justice.

I don't know that I necessarily disagree with Schultz's views. it's just that for some reason I don't feel his thoughts exactly match what comes out of his mouth.

I suspect Schultz thinks the observers are either some United Nations/New World Order or some Marxist/Socialist plot to rig the election in Iowa for Obama.

Besides, Schultz has been quiet about Romney supporters who have been training poll workers in Iowa to ask for photo id (photo id isn't required to vote in Iowa).

The election is about over, but we are stuck with a couple of more years of Schultz's paranoia.

Current Music: Townes Van Zandt - The Late Great Townes Van Zandt
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The Des Moines Register is releasing their last poll of the election season- which gives Obama a 47-42 lead here in Iowa (which is in line with my findings).

Early voting gives Obama a 22% lead. Not surprising that the people who generally don't like any kind of change in their lives- are traditional to the point to waiting to Tuesday.

Iowa has a few other elections to keep an eye on. Steve King is running to retain his seat againsyt Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsach. King should win easily in the heavily Conservative Western part of the state. Still, Vilsach made him sweat which is saying something. At the most optimistic, Vilsach is down by 5 percentage points.

The judicial retention election of Judge David Wiggins is also a big deal. Wiggins was a judge appointed by a Republican governor, but none of that matters because Wiggins voted to overturn the defense of Marriage Act in Iowa, legalizing gay marriage in this state.

A strong effort headed by perennial GOP candidate Bob Vander Plaats was enough two years ago to toss three judges off the Court who had voted like Wiggins.

This year, Vander Plaatshas been hitting hard, but there was some early pro-Wiggins ad support early on. There also is the lack of the ambush surprise that came in 2010.

At this point, 38% of Iowans said they will vote to retain; 34% against retention; and 22% stating they were undecided.

Romney is here today. Ryan is here tomorrow.

The Boss is here on Monday.

He will have Bruce Springsteen with him, as well.

It's not over, but you can see the end from here....

Current Music: Marty Robbins- Gunfighter Ballads and Trail Songs
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/897817.html

We are (to quote Joey Tempest) in the final countdown to Election Day.

Both candidates are airing constant campaign ads on tv.

Obama is hitting on Bain and women's issues. Romney counters with an ad that features a woman who says "I thought Romney was against all abortion, but he supports abortion in instances of rape, incest, and when the mother's life is in danger. Besides, what I really care about is the economy."

No, really.

I'm quoting it word for word.

It's supposed to be a grab for the moderates. I mean Romney is running it. I just can't help but think it will piss off those Republicans who say 'abortion never ever' and put them over in Virgil Goode's camp.

Still, the really memorable ads are on the radio.

Romney's are pretty basic.

Obama's are terrible.

There's nothing worse than 'corporate hipness' and Obama's ads read like the lamest McDonald's copy.

I already covered the urban "We got your back" ad.

the local classic rock station has been hit pretty hard with this ad.

It reminds me of Dennis Leary's Ford ads. I like Leary, but it's hard to sound like an Angry Young Man, when you are trying to shill for a company.

Obama's pitchman doesn't have Leary's presence, but he tries to pull it off.

"Romney has two Business degrees, but he doesn't know anything about economics, amirite?

It's hard to take serious any ad which features the words 'come on, man'.

Still, there is a certain art to combine an obvious slant with a stumbling attempt to sound like the man on the street. Think CBS Records' 1968 pitch "The Man can't bust our music."

So, I present the Obama campaign with a radio ad that sounds like it connects with the common man, but doesn't actually do that.

"Hey, like most of you. I have a fantasy football team. It is a fun time to talk trash with my friends, but I know that if I really want to win, then I have to read up on each player, and it's important to set my line up early in the week. If I wait until the game starts, it may be too late and my team may end up losing.

I have read about both of the political players, and I know the importance of setting my lineup early next week before the ball gets kicked off.
Set your lineup on Tuesday by going to the polls and put in Barack Obama as your Flex player. Otherwise, if you wait, then it is bad news for your team.... and bad news for America."

Take it, Obama, if you want. it's free

Current Music: Van Halen -s/t
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Although I doubt anyone ever makes their mind based on newspaper endorsements, the Des Moines Register has endorsed Mitt Romney.

The Register generally strikes me as liberal, and indeed, the last Republican they endorsed was Richard Nixon.

Interesting.

Also, I doubt celebrities make much difference, but Bruce Springsteen gave a free concert in Ames in support of Barack Obama. I have to say that was tempting, though the cold, rainy week day scared me (3500 fans weren't deterred).

"Let's vote for the man who got Osama, and when I leave Iowa, I'm going to Botswana" the man who wrote Born to Run and Atlantic City told the crowd.

Meanwhile, across the state, Binders Full of Women were campaigning for Mitt in the 'We Know Mitt' tour.

Still, in Iowa, there is early voting, so many (including this blogger) can't be swayed because they have already cast ballots. For now, thaqt benefits the Democrats, who have already done this by a margin of over 20% over their Republican counterparts.

I have also heard about Vote While You Shop locations that are popping up at grocery stores and strip malls. For me, I went to the local library which is set up as a permanent polling place to Election Day, and it was busier than one would expect.

Vote While You Shop is an interesting play that makes thing convenient by allowing locations to sprout up on college campuses, and makes things interesting by placing ballots outside of bars.

Of course, by voting early, you risk the possibility of an October Surprise that might sway your vote. An October Surprise like The Donald's "game changer", and by "game changer" a publicity stunt that was the death knell for any credibility and integrity that The Donald might have on a national political stage.

Although, it did give us this:

Ricky Gervais- "I will give $500 to charity if Donald Trump gives up his hairdresser's passport and college records."

and this:

Stephen Colbert countering Trump's $5 million donation to charity if he can see Obama's passport and college records, by offering $1 million to charity if Trump lets Colbert dip his balls in his mouth.

... and by balls, yes, he means testicles.

Of course, Colbert is a professional comedian, but that doesn't mean that amateurs like Barry and Willard don't want to give humor a shot themselves.

In one of the bizarre moments on the national political scene is the two candidates trading quips at the Al Smith Dinner.

Some good stuff from both:

"Ultimately, though, tonight is not about the disagreements Governor Romney and I may have," Obama said. "It's what we have in common -- beginning with our unusual names. Actually, Mitt is his middle name. I wish I could use my middle name."

(Obama) said he enjoyed having time to be in New York and shop at some stores in Midtown: “I understand Gov. Romney went shopping for some stores in Midtown.”

“You’re an equal-opportunity basher, aren’t you?” the mic picked up Romney saying with a smile, before turning to the white-tie crowd and saying, “It’s nice to finally relax and wear what Ann and I wear around the house.”

On Joe Biden, Romney said he wished the vice president could be there because he “laughs at everything

The two men meet again for the third and final debate on Monday in Boca Raton, Fla. That debate will focus on foreign policy, which prompted this line from Obama: “Spoiler alert — we got bin Laden.”

Politico has more here.

Current Music: Elefant- Sunlight Makes Me Paranoid
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/896551.html

I put together an unbeatable election polling process together awhile back.

It was controversial sure, but let's look at the facts.

From September 3 through September 28, every major pol had Obama ahead of Romney (CNN had 50-46, NBC had 51-44 to name, but two).

On September 25 my findings came out putting Romney ahead of Obama. The first major poll to put Willard ahead.

...but not the last.

On October 4, Investors Business Daily, PPP, Zogby, and Rasmussen (four major, independent pollers) all declared Romney ahead of Obama by two to four points (a fifth poll released that day, Gallup had the two candidates locked in a tie at 49% each).

So, not am I just correct, I am quicker to gathering the pulse.

This week, I did something slightly different. I walked the local neighborhood looking at the yardsigns. Besides, not everyone is going to vote, but one hopes that those motivated enough to put up a sign will.

I have talked about my precinct before. In 2004, it went for Dubya, and in 2008, flipped Blue to Obama. If one could predict where these neighbors' heads are at, then one could probably call the election over and done.

So?

Obama 10
Romney 8

There was also one Ron Paul for President sign. I am not really sure what do with that bit of info. Is that person going to write in Paul (likely), hold their nose and vote Romney, or pull the level for Gary Johnson.

I would guess that first option. I have mentioned here numerous times that more Ron Paul signs were in view this Spring than there ever were before the Caucuses (like you know, when that stuff mattered).

Let's put it like this:

Obama 52.6%
Romney 47.4%
Gary Johnson (?) .2%

It is an interesting development that there are so many Obama signs out now. The Blue and White classic looking Obama-Biden signs sprouted quickly, and though I reported awhile back that Romney signs outnumbered Barry;s 3-1 across the Des Moines metro area (which was true at the time), the Dems have been busy.

Indeed, although I don't have numbers (like I got from my walk), Barack surely has the lead.

Still, that Ron Paul sign started to bug me.

You see, plenty of people put up signs, but sometimes they don't post that Presidential one. All politics are local, and there are at least four races around here that are closely contested.

Surely, if you are voting for say, Kevin Koester, Republican candidate for state house, you would also vote for the corresponding party at the top of the ballot, right?

So, let's look at those numbers.

Houses with Republican candidate yard signs: 16
Houses with Democrat candidate yard signs: 12

That pollwould indicate a Republican preference of 57%-43%.

One house had both a sign for Koester and his opponent John Phoenix, which either means that a Republican and a Democrat live there, the house is empty, or the Homeowner will put up any sign that anybody asks him to.

Of course, I feel that even these numbers are a bit inconclusive, as a good chunk of the GOP signs belonged to the Republican candidate for Sheriff. We do have a close race for Sheriff, but in that race, voters are not voting for the Party or the Platform, they are voting for the individual. in local races, a candidate for Sheriff could be a neighbor, a friend, or someone who shares a church or school.

That of course, doesn't take in account people who are independent and vote all different ways on their ballots, or Republicans who unhappy with Romney, might cast a vote for Johnson or Virgil Goode.

I am happy with both of my polls above. i absolutely, positively guarantee that one of them is right.

Current Music: NME presents Songs To Save Your Life (Compiled by Morrissey)
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At this point, i have been following things close enough that I can actually provide some real insight, so I accidentally stumbled on something while talking to a friend on the phone.

Unless you are one of the few people who have their feet on the ground (like the Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich), then you are just a person who is reading those dispatches and reporting on them. So thus, I am not that far removed from doing what Chris Matthews or Rush Limbaugh does.

It also should be noted that nothing is original, and what I am going to share is someone else's observation. Political writing is often taking others words and refocusing on it. Where I feel that I am falling into the category of 'real insight' is that I am not hearing anyone else say this right now. In fact, my observation is based on a view that was observed over six months ago.

So, here it is:

Mitt Romney is only good when he's not in the lead.

Observe.

In 2007, he made his appearance on the Presidential scene as the guy who seemed destined to be President. He arrived with a resume and a reputation that painted him as the clear cut favorite.

What happened? Well, despite being the favorite and despite buying everyone barbeque, from the Ames Straw poll until caucus night, Romney's support crumbled bit by bit, until unthinkably he lost to Mike Huckabee.

Four years later, in a field now void of the likes of McCain and Giuliani, once again, Romney was the instant favorite.

Romney led early polls and was again the inevitable nominee, though again, the masses loved him, but were not in love with him. Story after story appeared where prominent Republicans were reaching out to Govs. Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry and ex-Gov. Sarah Palin.

As you remember, Perry did decide to win and became the favorite. A fighting tough Romney slowly worked his way back up the polls, with his debate performances, and slowly working over Perry and a series of serious contenders like Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

The story doesn't end there. It should. At Christmas, it appeared that Romney would end up with a respectable victory, beating out his most serious contender, Ron Paul. As we know, that didn't happen. On election night, his victory was an eight-point squeaker past Rick Santorum; though a closer count would actually reveal Rick Santorum as the actual winner with 34 more votes than Mitt.

So, it seems the story is about to repeat again. Though you might argue that Romney never had the lead (If Romney was in first, then why in a poll in a battleground state like Iowa last week give Obama an eight point lead 51-43), after debate #1 and some Libya controversy, it certainly appeared that Mitt was once again in the driver's seat.

The door is closing on that opportunity given by those events. Both men went into the third debate as if this was now Romney's to lose, and sure enough, it's a pretty universal consensus that Obama had the better night. in a few days, Romney will once again be in a role that might be preferable in regards to his style of campaigning. The question would be if the timing is right.

Current Music: New Order- Power, Corruption, and Lies
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I had been sitting on this a few days, but figure now was a good time to examine The Des Moines Register's analysis of the women's vote.

You see, Obama leads Mitt in this demographic,

It's still close, and one suspects that Mitt just needs maybe a manilla folder of women voters to put him over here.

If you haven't been following, things have went like this:

Mitt went Far Right to pander for votes, saying things like "Planned Parenthood, We'll get rid of that". His GOP buddies said "LOL WUT?" when asked if women should be paid the same as men, Obama hammered Romney on these views for months. The GOP started a bunch of Ladies Love Cool Willard websites (which appear to be more anti-Barack than pro-Mitt, but there you go). Mitt wend Midle for the general election, and said "Of course I'm anti-abortion, but it's not like I'm going to do anything about it."

So, what did the Register find:

-No 19th amendment, Iowa goes Red. Iowa Women have Obama +13%, men have Romney up by 6%.
-Women don't like Romney (41% favorable, 55%unfavorable), but they like Paul Ryan (52%like,38%unfavorable)
-Iowa women identify as Democrats (37%), 25% identify as Republican, and 36% independent.
-Women have their mind made up. Only 7% said that they could change their mind. 12% of men said they could.
-Most important issue: Women say Economy and Health Care, Men say Economy and Deficit.
-The Honesty question, women find Obama to be more honest by a margin of 51-34 (Men said Obama 45-41). Trust on foreign affairs issues ran similar (women preferred Obama 56-38, while men said Obama 47-44)
-As far as women's issues, 60% of women said Obama would be better than 28% for Romney.

Meanwhile, in other Iowa election news.

100% of the Muppets are in favor of Obama

The Dems bring in The Boss for a free concert today. The GOP still has no plans for celebrity endorsements though they did bring the orangest man this side of George Hamilton to campaign last night in eastern Iowa. Boehner didn't talk to the media and didn't answer any questions about a failed agreement around the new farm bill in the House.

Current Music: Bauhaus - 1979-1983
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The Des Moines Register released its poll this week. The Register is known for its long-standing history as a barometer as what is actually going to happen. (Remember in December when they said Romney would stomp Santorum 24%-15%? Well, okay, that may not have been their fault).

Obama 49%
Romney 45%
Other 4%

So, what can we conclude from this?

Well, simple math shows that only 2% fall in undecided. Now, 10% did say they were capable of changing their minds, which still makes things in play for both camps.

No info is given on who the Other are, though I suspect that's largely Gary Johnson, though Virgil Goode could get some of that Far Right 'Anyone but Mitt' support.

Recent polling by other groups are in line with this. WeAskAmerica has Obama 48.7-45.9 with Johnson polling 1.2% and 4.2% undecided in Iowa. While ARG shows it even 48-48 in a poll that they put out this week.

Rasmussen had Romney ahead last month, but now show Obama ahead 49-47 with 15 other, 2% undecided.

The Obama camp has brought in the big guns. Bruce Springsteen is performing a free concert in Ames (Romney's most famous Jersey support comes from Chris Christie: Advantage: Obama)

In recent weeks, Ashley Judd, Justin "I'm a Mac" Long, Alfre Woodard (who I only know from True Blood, but is apparently important) and Jon Bon Jovi (local news called him "80s rocker" Jon Bon Jovi. Burn!) have made trips here in support of Barry& Joe.

Personally, I don't believe celebrity endorsements mean anything (although the Justin Long visit almost makes me consider voting for Gary Johnson), but they do drum up support around the party base.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has been adamant that they are sending no celebrities to Iowa.

this proves a few things:

1-No celebrities like Mitt
2- Okay, that isn't true. These people do. It's the usual suspects- lead singers of country bands and 80s arena rockers. Once you get past them, it's Niki Minaj, Scott Baio, Jerry Bruckheimer, and WWE CEO Vince McMahon (which is funny because Linda McMahon is a Republican candidate for Senate and she has distanced herself from Romney)
3-Okay, Gene Simmons likes Romney, but he doesn't do anything for free
4-Porn Star Jenna Jameson said she supported Romney, but she may have been joking.

Which is all well and good since when Romney does get celebrity help, he forgets to ask them exactly what they have planned.

Besides who needs celebrities, Iowans don't like that stuff. You see, Iowans like politicians who pose in front of tractors.

Current Music: Beirut - The Flying Club Cup

Current Music: Beirut - The Flying Club Cup

You may remember my informal poll from two weeks ago.

I haven't continued keeping numbers, but would say it is still fairly accurate. I still see more Mitt bumper stickers than Obama ones. I would say it is close, but it is enough difference to notice.

As far as that other visible factor goes- yard signs- Romney has a marked advantage. I would say that in cross-town errands all across the Metro Area of Des Moines, Romney is probably up 3 to 1 (Roughly, I would say 15-5, advantage Mitt). Truly, this may not indicate anything but that Romney has a pretty dedicated group of pavement pounders, but let's not discount that. Romney appears to have a strong street team.

Of course, at this point, there are actually better numbers to reference than my eagle-eye observations. you see, Iowans have an option to cast their votes early- from now up until the polls close on Election Day.

Cityview had those early numbers and 939 people have taken advantage of this. If this isn't something your state experiences, it is a big deal here, and the Democrats have pushed it heavily the last three election cycles.

Since Iowans declare a party affiliation on their voters' card (though they obviously can jump party lines when the curtain closes), we can get real numbers and here they are: 656 Democrats have voted, 157 Republicans have cast their ballots. There have been 114 independents and 3 "other"s.

After Iowa looked to be done, things have shifted post-debate, and that means Mitt was here. He stayed to one of the basic tenets of electioneering -stand in front of a barn and a Massey Ferguson tractor- doesn't get any more American than that.

Romney's visit did get a bit stuck with some conversation about Romney's remarks to the Register about abortion. Specifically, that Romney has no abortion-related legislation on his agenda. Romney says he still plans to overturn Roe v Wade, but his plan is to do that by appointing Supreme Court judges. Romney had been pretty forceful on related issues, such as saying he would defund Planned Parenthood.

Democrats have attacked Romney, by saying he has some strong anti-women positions, and his comments were meant to subterfuge them. Personally, I would say that is less an issue than what the Far Right must think when they hear those words.

Meanwhile, the Dems have their own foot-in-mouth moments that overshadow them as well. Joe Biden was here last week, and had to spend that time clarifying his 'middle class has been buried the last four years' quote (asking exactly who was in charge during this burying).

On tv, things are as brutal as ever as the Republicans have hit on Obama hard over mishandling the Sept 11. Libya terrorist incident, (more than) suggesting that Obama is more interested in campaigning for re-election than doing what is best for the country. Obama continues to push Romney on outsourcing, and telling stories of workers who had their jobs outsourced to India (even having to train the new workers).

Both parties have been pushing ads regarding a nonpartisan report that claims Romney's tax plans are better for the middle class. Obama's team counters that this nonpartisan group AEI has newt Gingrich and Dick Cheney in high-profile roles, and one of Willard's Bain partners running the study.

Current Music: The Cure- Disintegration
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/891511.html

When you live in a battleground state, you get mail all the time.

I suppose I should keep it all, and open a small museum, but I don't.

Still, occasionally, one will find a surprising piece in with the usual junk.

This has all the markings of the usual smear letter.

-Paid for by a PAC
-Addressed to a Register Democrat
-Ornamented with a great 'look inside' caption
-targeted at the controversial side of the Party's ticket

So..

What do we really know about Paul Ryan?

How about....

He's SUPERAWESOME!

The mailer features a picture of Ryan with his mom (what a good boy) and plenty of quotes from Democrats who like Paul Ryan.

These Democrats are Joe Lieberman (of course), Sen Ron Wyden (who did partner with Ryan on his Helathcare plan), former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles who puts a good word in about Ryan's arithmetic skills, and Dan Boren, a congressman from Oklahoma that goes hunting with Ryan.

Coming to mind me is 'how many times do you ignore the front man for the supporting player'. Still, there's little doubt that Ryan is Flea and Romney is Anthony Kiedis. Even the GOp are making this about Ryan.

I suppose that this should be in line with Romney, a man who bought and sold companies a living. Like a company that acquires a company because they need a new application or a new line of business to compete, so has Romney does this in politics. Want to show that you are going to radically change Medicare? Buy the company that has the patent on it, and acquire it and make it your own.

Then again, I could be completely wrong. This flier makes no mention of Mitt; only focusing on the humble Wisconsin upbringing of Paul Ryan. Maybe this is the first ad of the 2016 election season.

Current Music: Current 93- Thunder Perfect Mind
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/890843.html

Business as usual around these parts. No surprise that Obama is running an ad which consists of nothing but Romney saying his "47% comments.

This of course, puts Romney in a place where he has countered with a look-you-in-the-eyes "I really care about 100% of you" tv ad.

Obama counters the counterad (where Romney says he will create more jobs) with his own look-you-in-the-eyes ad of his own, claiming that if he was somewhere that he could connect you like your living room (not in some debate on some stage where he looks bored or surely), you would certainly connect with him and pull the Dem lever.

On the radio, though you can hear a young black student say "President Obama, I've got your back".

No, seriously.

Yeah, it sounds about as authentic as when McDonalds tries to sound 'hip' and 'urban', but what do you expect?

Iowa is slowly falling off the battleground radar. A recent NBC poll has Obama up by 7, although one recent poll (Rasmussen) did put Romney up by three (which is more inline with what I got).

That means we get Biden in front of 600 today in Council Bluffs, while Paul Ryan was chilling with anti-abortion protestors before his speech tonight in Dubuque. It means the guys on the top of the ticket aren't here (breaking news: Romney is in Iowa next Tuesday. Apparently, the debate last night puts him back in play).

So, the real campaigning here is done by the surrogates. The Republicans brought Big New Jersey Star of the Workingman Chris Christie to rally the GOP for some of the local races. While here, Christie also gave a ringing endorsement of Romney in saying that he is the "best man who made himself available to defeat the President". Thus saying he's absolutely 100% behind Willard, and since Mitch Daniels, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, John Thune, Jeb Bush, and Condi Rice aren't available, Mitt's totally the guy.

Meanwhile, the Dems are hoping for big crowds for their Big New Jersey Star of the Workingman Jon Bon Jovi. Jon is giving acoustic performances in Iowa City and Des Moines. (Level of difficulty: evening temps recently in the 70s have fallen to the 50s in recent days).

Lest you think, Mr Bongiovi is a kingmaker, he was here in 2004 backing John Kerry.

Nonpartisan (I guess), but opinionated Henry Rollins was here too (I found out about 24 hours too late) and is touring all 50 state capitols before election day on his Capitalism tour. While that visit isn't up on Youtube yet, he has shared a few excerpts like this one.

$30 million has been spent in Iowa for Presidential campaign advertising. Iowans in the blue areas of the Quad Cities, Cedar Rapids, and Des Moines should see a lot more of Mitt's visage on their tvs. Iowans who live in the predominantly Republican areas of Council Bluffs and Sioux City should be seeing a lot more Obama ads.

Current Music: Edwyn Collins- Gorgeous George
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/890025.html

I usually spend my weekends in the battleground state of Iowa (though polls are firmly putting it in Obama's column).

This weekend, I was in Vegas.

Which also puts me in another battleground state.

Honestly, if you have seen one negative campaign ad, you've seen them all (Voted with Pelosi, voted for TARP, votes against women, isn't anti-China enough (both parties like this one)). There isn't much different, though the Nevada GOP has hard words on the GM bailout (likely a 'no go' in the Midwest).

Romney is promising jobs in both states, though he's put a number on Iowa -130,000. In Nevada, the superpacs are pushing for Jewish votes by claiming Obama snubbed Netanyahu.

Of course, there is one ad that is unique to this area, and you have to know some history to appreciate it. One has to go to the days of the Government Bailout of Banks, and the emergence of the Occupy movement.

In those days, echoing most of America, Obama was shocked that big corporate bankers were taking money from the government, laying off workers, bending over consumers, but executive compensation, trips, and parties continued as normal.

"You can't go take that trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on the taxpayers' dime"

I think we all agreed, except I suppose if ... you're Las Vegas.

Romney featured it in his tv ad, and has made it a talking point to the State of Nevada.

Nevada is in play, though which means Barack and Michelle are both headed there this week.

Curiously as life has gotten worse for Romney, he has a 3rd Party problem.

Most people probably wouldn't consider Former Republican Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson a threat, but interestingly, he is.

Johnson is popular in his home region (as well as Independent-minded New Hampshire) polling over 5% in five different states.

This hurts Romney, because these are red and purple states (NM, NH, Arizona, Colorado, Montana). Even states that Romney should feel he has a decent chance of winning (like Nevada, but also Florida and North Carolina), having 3% of the vote taken by Johnson (who as a Libertarian and ex-Republican, likely would pull more from Romney), would make an increasingly uphill battle that much tougher.

Nevada backed Obama four years ago, but went for Dubya twice (and went GOP 5 of the last 8 times). Polls from September, shows Obama's lead anywhere from 2-9%.

CNN's poll from 2 weeks ago put Obama up 47-44 among likely voters and Johnson at 3% (and if that wasn't enough support siphoned, Libertarian-leaning Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party was at 4%).

I don't have any pre-election trips planned for Colorado, Virginia, or North Carolina, but if anything comes up, i will let you know.

Current Music: OMD- The Singles
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/888664.html

I found this. perhaps my favorite story of the general election.

There are six candidates for President on Iowa's ballots.

You know Barry and Willard, and likely know Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green).

There's Peta Lindsay, the candidate for the party for Socialism and Liberation (Peta won't win, but interestingly enough, if she did, she couldn't be President, she's not 35) and James Harris from the Socialist Workers Party (As if being a Socialist wasn't enough, imagine having to split votes).

Then, there's Jerry Litzel.

Litzel may be my favorite candidate ever.

You see, we have a lot in common, i suspect. He is a collector of political memorabilia, and( though time and travel has pared my collection down to mainly buttons, autographed books, and Bush I & Dukakis magnets) so am I.

This year, Litzel gets the ultimate souvenir.

You see, he's running just so he can keep a copy of the ballot for President with his name on it.

Interestingly, Litzel went through the same scrutiny that Gary Johnson did by the Romney campaign, challenging 300 of the 15000 needed signatures that Litzel collected to get on the ballot.

“Romney’s lawyer from (Washington) D.C. was there,” Litzel said. “We won out because they couldn’t figure out what in the world constitutes a signature. … It kinda made me feel good, too, that Romney thought I was some kind of threat to him.”

Litzel calls himself 'very Conservative' which doesn't surprise me considering the type of person who would try this stunt, though that only makes it more interesting.

You see, Litzel was going to vote for Romney.

Litzel... hadn’t even earned his own support this fall until the past few days. He said he had been considering voting for Romney, but, “after this deal, I’ll go with myself.”

Litzel has a platform (cut Congress pay and benefits,cut food stamps) which seems a bit unnecessary, and is only on the Iowa ballot. His brother (from California) is his running mate.

Your next President...

Current Music: The Ventures- Greatest Hits
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/888514.html

Pretty quiet around these parts.

Now, Paul Ryan, Joe Biden, Ann Romney, and the presumptive 2016 nominees Martin O'Malley and Chris Christie have all made trips to Iowa in the last couple of weeks.

Still, all of these stories and their potential side-stories have been obscured from the headlines because of Mitt Romney's "47 percent" comment.

The most harmful thing about Romney's quote is actually not the quote itself. Romney has made it pretty clear he's on the side of the Tea party and the Libertarians of his party (and if you still weren't convinced, he nominated Paul Ryan as his running mate.) Instead, the quote has taken priority over any possible discussion that would have taken place in the last two weeks- anything Romney had to say about the economy, jobs, gas prices, etc.

John Kerry and Walter Mondale would be ashamed of the way Mitt is running his campaign. This all follows a convention that was dominated by Clint Eastwood's performance of A Portrait of The President as a Young Chair.

So, we're left to the television ads then, and there have been a s#itload of them.

Here are the recurring themes-

-Before there was the "47 percent', there was Democratic Governor O'Malley's comment that we aren't better off than we were four years ago. Both sides have hit this issue hard. Romney's side with deficit graphs, and Obama showing a steady growth of jobs every month.
Obama brought out the big gun- Bill Clinton- explaining that we are better off with a Dem in the White House and you are either Team Bubba or Team Dubya

-An independent small businessperson who regrets her vote, and said it was a terible decision and things went south when the person she voted for took office. And? It's an Obama ad. Romney has stuck with this theme through the campaign (expect more "Breaking Up with Obama" ads shortly.) However, Obama is hitting back with a tale of a Massachusetts voter who saw her state fall to 47 th (there's that number again) in the nation in job creation under Romney's tenure.

-Both sides have run ads that say they will save Medicare. When history is done and written, it will show Romney lost this election, because people thought he was going to eliminate Medicare. I didn't find Romney's ads very convincing, and think if he is trying to have this conversation, he is losing. On a side note, state and local Republicans have actually done better with this issue, framing it as 'we need to take the money marked for Obamacare and move it over to Medicare.'

-A liberal superpac is taking the Koch Brothers superpac ads to task, asking why would the Koch Brothers dump $80 million into trying to get Mitt elected, and what do they expect for their money. I think it's a smart move for the Democratic playbook, and does work towards negating the Pro-Romney superpacs. That ad calls the Koch's the Greed Agenda.

Anyway, that's the current state of things, though local television reported this week from a series of articles that Iowa is no longer in play.

Rasmussen does have Mitt up by 3, but ARG has Obama up by 7 and NBC/Wall Street Journal has Obama up by 8. Average all the leading polls, and you show Obama with a pretty comfortable lead of 5-and-a-half points.

So, we may not get to see The Barry and Willard Show here again this year.