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bedsitter23You know, Iowa is about over, and so I am going to leave this here. There are two weeks to go, and anything can happen, but I think it is safe to say, this will be the final rundown of TV ads in Iowa.
Donald Trump- The Donald's ads talk about cutting the head off Isis (see what he did there) and are very us against them. Trump got his theme from Reagan, and these well-produced ads are a throwback to the USA vs Soviet Union heyday of the 80s. Trump is switching out the USSR for Isis. They look old school Presidential and are a better play than his radio ads which feature him barking about all the things he stands for. It should be noted Trump's support has a ceiling, but it also a basement. It's hard to think of him in terms of Bernie or Ron Paul, but indeed, some people will vote for Trump no matter what.
Ted Cruz- So Ted Cruz wins Iowa. Even if Trump wins, I don't see any way that Cruz doesn't come out the winner. He has done the right things and it is paying off. So Cruz doesn't really have to run ads. Like at different times in this election cycle where Trump and Carson did not run ads, Cruz gains nothing by running ads. That is modern day politics, you are only running ads if you are running behind. Now Cruz has run ads and they are Cruz looking Presidential. Agree or disagree with the guy, he's run a good campaign here. Now, what does that say for the Nomination, I am not sure. Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa and both seemed like they might have a shot and failed at a nationwide scale. How does it go from here, I don't know.
Mike Huckabee- Despite lagging way behind, Mike has run some ads. Huckabee is the guy who drunk texts. Remember how we loved each other eight years ago. Well, I still love you. Don't you? Remember how good we were? You still love me right?
Ben Carson- While the GOP ads almost to a man talk about Isis and talk about Obamacare and the issues of the day, Carson's ad is about "Hands'. These hands work and these hands give and these hands hug and in Carson's case, these hands heal. This could be a Coke ad. This ad was born of Benetton not Rove. Touchy feely is a Democrat thing. This "Come together" approach is totally Hillary/Barack, not Trump and fearmongering. Which you know gives me an idea. There is one way and only one way Carson will be President, but i think it will work. Carson has a life altering experience (he can fake a campaign bus crash), comes out and says he was wrong about Obamacare, wrong about everything and has been reborn a liberal. Laugh if you want, but this is the only way you are getting elected, Ben, so you can thank me later.
Bernie Sanders- Bernie ads are pretty much what you expect. I don't know what else to say
Hillary Clinton- Hillary's ads are now aimed at whoever the GOP candidate will be. Her ads feature quotes from Trump, Cruz, Christie, Jeb, and Marco which scare liberals. It's clear, right? Ignore Bernie. Remind people you are the 'electable' one. I think Hillary shouldn't count out Bernie (who one poll said was trailing by 2 points in Iowa). i know this seems like a good idea (to assume you have the nomination) but is it?
Marco Rubio- I have a pretty good idea how Iowa will play out. Cruz and Trump will be 1 and 2. Carson will have something, though I think his momentum has not only stalled, but stopped; he will get something. Someone will get 4th and someone will surprise. Everything seems to indicate Rubio would be the 4th major player. I am not saying he won't be. Indeed, nearly all polls show Rubio in third at this point. Still, I have doubts. Of course, what I am saying is not unfounded. Indeed, conventional wisdom suggests that there will be a voice for the "moderate" candidate. Which is why Jeb is attacking Marco hard. It is also why Jeb is going after Marco and not Trump or Cruz or Carson. My guess is Christie will be the surprise. He has not done much here, but he did get the endorsement of the state's Republican governor. Even then, it could of course by Rand or Carly who end up being the surprise here. I doubt it. Perhaps, John Kasich will have a last minute surge.
I want to spend some time talking about Rubio's ads. Rubio is the GOP's Hillary Clinton. His ads press how Presidential he is. Indeed, he has the look, though it takes more than that to convince. Rubio has been running as the candidate who will beat Hillary. Indeed, the same strategy as HilRod, "I am just going to ignore all else" mentality. Interestingly, Rubio has been running ads during football games (and this time of year, there's a lot of those) which make it look like they have called him into the studio to ask him some football themed questions (No, really.) It's like those fake news ads that they run about "Doctors announce a breakthrough today" and it really an ad for a laxative. The interesting follow up is Cruz's PAC has run a disingenuous ad which compiles footage of the news of the day- With ISIS on the move, Iran and Russia acting out, Syria in peril, what would Marco Rubio do, and then cuts to a clip of Rubio saying "I know I got this debate, but I got to check on my fantasy football team. Oh snap!
Jeb Bush- Jeb has spent a lot of money trying to be where Rubio is. His PACs have hit Rubio hard on being a flip-flopper. The fact that Rubio has worked with Chuck Schumer on an immigration "amnesty" bill has drawn straight fire from the likes of Limbaugh and Mark Levin and anybody who thinks they have a shot at the White House. Bush has spent money on a billboard campaign which includes quotes of Jeb. I have not seen the Donald Trump one, but these are all over Des Moines, and have been mocked all over the internets. I can name a few reasons while this isn't working, but you probably already know.
Bush's campaign is a slight variation on the Hillary strategy and again, is a pretty textbook one. With his record as a governor, he has a claim on being the candidate with most administrative experience. Indeed, what he is trying to stress is that he could govern from Day One. Although I dont know that this was going to be successful, it did seem like a good angle. Then, I saw the next ad in the series. Jeb claimin to be the right person in the White House to make decisions on terrorism. Jeb is the right person to decide what we need to do to take action. I am going to slow down a bit- a Bush in the White House being the man to make the decision whether we should go to war overseas or not. Yeah, maybe shouldn't have went with that angle.
Donald Trump- The Donald's ads talk about cutting the head off Isis (see what he did there) and are very us against them. Trump got his theme from Reagan, and these well-produced ads are a throwback to the USA vs Soviet Union heyday of the 80s. Trump is switching out the USSR for Isis. They look old school Presidential and are a better play than his radio ads which feature him barking about all the things he stands for. It should be noted Trump's support has a ceiling, but it also a basement. It's hard to think of him in terms of Bernie or Ron Paul, but indeed, some people will vote for Trump no matter what.
Ted Cruz- So Ted Cruz wins Iowa. Even if Trump wins, I don't see any way that Cruz doesn't come out the winner. He has done the right things and it is paying off. So Cruz doesn't really have to run ads. Like at different times in this election cycle where Trump and Carson did not run ads, Cruz gains nothing by running ads. That is modern day politics, you are only running ads if you are running behind. Now Cruz has run ads and they are Cruz looking Presidential. Agree or disagree with the guy, he's run a good campaign here. Now, what does that say for the Nomination, I am not sure. Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa and both seemed like they might have a shot and failed at a nationwide scale. How does it go from here, I don't know.
Mike Huckabee- Despite lagging way behind, Mike has run some ads. Huckabee is the guy who drunk texts. Remember how we loved each other eight years ago. Well, I still love you. Don't you? Remember how good we were? You still love me right?
Ben Carson- While the GOP ads almost to a man talk about Isis and talk about Obamacare and the issues of the day, Carson's ad is about "Hands'. These hands work and these hands give and these hands hug and in Carson's case, these hands heal. This could be a Coke ad. This ad was born of Benetton not Rove. Touchy feely is a Democrat thing. This "Come together" approach is totally Hillary/Barack, not Trump and fearmongering. Which you know gives me an idea. There is one way and only one way Carson will be President, but i think it will work. Carson has a life altering experience (he can fake a campaign bus crash), comes out and says he was wrong about Obamacare, wrong about everything and has been reborn a liberal. Laugh if you want, but this is the only way you are getting elected, Ben, so you can thank me later.
Bernie Sanders- Bernie ads are pretty much what you expect. I don't know what else to say
Hillary Clinton- Hillary's ads are now aimed at whoever the GOP candidate will be. Her ads feature quotes from Trump, Cruz, Christie, Jeb, and Marco which scare liberals. It's clear, right? Ignore Bernie. Remind people you are the 'electable' one. I think Hillary shouldn't count out Bernie (who one poll said was trailing by 2 points in Iowa). i know this seems like a good idea (to assume you have the nomination) but is it?
Marco Rubio- I have a pretty good idea how Iowa will play out. Cruz and Trump will be 1 and 2. Carson will have something, though I think his momentum has not only stalled, but stopped; he will get something. Someone will get 4th and someone will surprise. Everything seems to indicate Rubio would be the 4th major player. I am not saying he won't be. Indeed, nearly all polls show Rubio in third at this point. Still, I have doubts. Of course, what I am saying is not unfounded. Indeed, conventional wisdom suggests that there will be a voice for the "moderate" candidate. Which is why Jeb is attacking Marco hard. It is also why Jeb is going after Marco and not Trump or Cruz or Carson. My guess is Christie will be the surprise. He has not done much here, but he did get the endorsement of the state's Republican governor. Even then, it could of course by Rand or Carly who end up being the surprise here. I doubt it. Perhaps, John Kasich will have a last minute surge.
I want to spend some time talking about Rubio's ads. Rubio is the GOP's Hillary Clinton. His ads press how Presidential he is. Indeed, he has the look, though it takes more than that to convince. Rubio has been running as the candidate who will beat Hillary. Indeed, the same strategy as HilRod, "I am just going to ignore all else" mentality. Interestingly, Rubio has been running ads during football games (and this time of year, there's a lot of those) which make it look like they have called him into the studio to ask him some football themed questions (No, really.) It's like those fake news ads that they run about "Doctors announce a breakthrough today" and it really an ad for a laxative. The interesting follow up is Cruz's PAC has run a disingenuous ad which compiles footage of the news of the day- With ISIS on the move, Iran and Russia acting out, Syria in peril, what would Marco Rubio do, and then cuts to a clip of Rubio saying "I know I got this debate, but I got to check on my fantasy football team. Oh snap!
Jeb Bush- Jeb has spent a lot of money trying to be where Rubio is. His PACs have hit Rubio hard on being a flip-flopper. The fact that Rubio has worked with Chuck Schumer on an immigration "amnesty" bill has drawn straight fire from the likes of Limbaugh and Mark Levin and anybody who thinks they have a shot at the White House. Bush has spent money on a billboard campaign which includes quotes of Jeb. I have not seen the Donald Trump one, but these are all over Des Moines, and have been mocked all over the internets. I can name a few reasons while this isn't working, but you probably already know.
Bush's campaign is a slight variation on the Hillary strategy and again, is a pretty textbook one. With his record as a governor, he has a claim on being the candidate with most administrative experience. Indeed, what he is trying to stress is that he could govern from Day One. Although I dont know that this was going to be successful, it did seem like a good angle. Then, I saw the next ad in the series. Jeb claimin to be the right person in the White House to make decisions on terrorism. Jeb is the right person to decide what we need to do to take action. I am going to slow down a bit- a Bush in the White House being the man to make the decision whether we should go to war overseas or not. Yeah, maybe shouldn't have went with that angle.
