bedsitter23 | Entries tagged with 2012 election begins today

Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register wrote an article this week about the ten people who have spent time in Iowa and made significant public appearances and media stops while in the state.

I give you the 'ten that are likely in'.

Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Scott Brown

Each man has appeared in crowds of 450-800 with the exception of Santorum and Brown. Santorum, of course won the caucus by starting off in much the same way, so you can't count him out (especially if Huckabee and Palin move out of the way). Brown is a prime example of why you can't predict these things too far ahead. He was a golden boy who lost his national spotlight. Pundits like Brown, though. They say he's smart and he was named "Sexiest Man Alive" by Cosmo in 1982 (really), so never count out 'good looking politician'.

Palin drew a crowd of over 1000, although the article suggests at this point she is probably more a fundraiser star than an actual candidate. I have to think that's true. It would all be downhill for her if she was actually elected. Barry Obama told her that.

I saw Palin's appearance on local press and she actually called Obama a "Silly Goose" (of course, she did) which suggests to me at this point, Palin is playing Tuna Fey playing Palin. Palin also told the Iowa crowds that Obamacare was like slavery. No, that's okay, because she prefaced it by saying "This isn't racist, but..."

It sounds like Huckabee is more likely to run that he looked four years ago, which means he was smart not to run against an incumbent. Walker has made comments that no one will vote for a member of Congress (playing the outsider/Governor card). Cruz and Paul (and Marco Rubio, for that matter) are first term Senators (which was what Obama was when he first announced in 2007) which may not be a good thing..

Jacobs calls Cruz the one with the most buzz, and maybe that it is true. Cruz seems to be the one acting most like a candidate. I don't know what that translates into. I see him a bit as a Tim Pawlenty- the guy who is trying too hard to court the prettiest girl in the room. Pawlenty spent and spent and visited every weekend, and the GOPers were just sick of him. Cruz may end up like that.

Jacobs makes no mention of Chris Christie, which is fine. The one thing I have learned from living through 3 election cycles in Iowa is that the 'National' candidate doesn't automatically get any support. Rudy Giuliani is the best example of that, but look at those who should have won. Kerry over Dean. Obama over Hillary. Huckabee over McCain. Santorum over Romney. None of those results should have went that way, but in each case, the candidate with better ground support was triumphant.

Lastly, I can't finish a post on 2016 without a nod to the documentary film Caucus which is getting some buzz. The best story is of how Michele Bachmann tried too hard, and the bizarre behavior of her husband. One can't just zoom through Iowa's 99 counties and assume that is enough.

As the campaign goes on, Bachmann's husband Marcus becomes part of the story. During the final month before the caucuses, the Bachmanns stormed through all of Iowa's 99 counties in 11 days, turning their campaign into a perpetual blur of exits from the massive bus, hurried handshakes and a hasty retreat back into the vehicle. I personally remember watching Marcus Bachmann literally pushing Michele out the front door of a café one of those days with a smile plastered to his face, trying to give the appearance of engaging a voter in conversation.

The constant travel and lack of sleep turned Marcus punch-drunk. One of the most amazing moments in the film is when Marcus tries to convince a middle-aged man to vote for his wife as Michele talks at ear-splitting levels about gas prices. He takes the man's hand, and begins to try to thumb wrestle him. The man laughs, but withdraws his hand, and Marcus picks it back up, saying, "One more time and it's Michele, ok?"

"I don't know what that is," the man says.

"It's thumb wrestling. It's thumb wrestling," Marcus offers.

"I don't have a thumb," the man responds. "They took the bone out of there."

Marcus turns away to a man across the table, and tries to get him to thumb wrestle. The man just shakes his head.

Current Music: Everything Everything - Arc
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/957267.html

The 2012 election is long over, but like a big 300 pound rock shaped like Iowa that says Romney, some things remain.

Like allegations against Michele Bachmann about illegal campaign activities.

The revelation this week is that Bachmann paid a state senator thousands of dollars under the table so he could be paid for this work, but not get in trouble with campaign laws. Bachmann (allegedly) overpaid a consulting company that would turn around and cut the Senator (Kent Sorenson) a $7500 monthly check.

At the risk of this being a public forum, let me just say I wouldn't vote for Sorenson if he was running against Francisco Franco (living or dead).

Allegations and articles about Sorenson over the years:

-He's pro-gun, and by that he thinks that convicted domestic violence abusers should be able to buy guns.
-He probably broke into someone's computer (after being denied permission) to get a list of names of people who homeschool, so he could hit them up for donations.
-Sorenson, the kind of guy who is so Conservative that he calls John Roberts "Benedict Arnold" and wants Supreme Court justices who vote for gay marriage impeached, also has a drug conviction, tax trouble, has filed for bankruptcy, and been cited for not paying his child support.

In any case, at least Bachmann got value for her money, right?

No.

Sorenson jumped the sinking Bachmann ship on December 28, a week before the caucuses to support Ron Paul.

Bachmann always maintained that Sorenson was offered a large sum of money to do so, so Sorenson has always denied that.

The person filing the complaint with the FEC is an evangelist and Bachmann's National field coordinator.

Both Bachmann and Sorenson deny any wrongdoing.

Current Music: Coil - Love's Secret Domain
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/910176.html

After months (and years) of campaigning, election campaigns just come to an end.

Maybe, it's not fair, but the media usually gives the prerequisite 48 hours before they talk about the next campaign that is four years down the road.

Everyone is ready to move on.

Still, once it's all done, one might wonder what you do with some of the things you no longer need.

Like a 300 pound sign shaped like Iowa that says Romney on it.

Well, there's always Craigslist.

Local TV said someone bought it for $150, though the only thing I found online said it was actually picked up for free, but was worth $150 (if melted down and sold for scrap metal).

In any case, this is the guy who added it to his political memorabilia collection (Mrs. Bedsitter would surely have vetoed this):

Yes, he is a Republican, though he is a collector, and said he would have likely done the same if it was an Obama sign.

In any case, it ended up as a great show of bipartisanship...

“I got my older brother Andrew, who is a huge Obama Democrat—He is one of the guys who helped move it.”

Current Music: Ivy- All Hours
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/908735.html

Equally important as the National election were some statewide races.

One of the most high profile was a judicial retention vote.

David Wiggins was up for retention, but Iowa's loudest Conservative mouth Bob Vander Plats went after him hard.

He drove around the state with Rick Santorum in a "No Wiggins' bus, ran at least two No Wiggins tv ads, and of course a NoWiggins website -spending tens of thousands of dollars in their effort.

So whether it should have or not, it seems like the Wiggins vote came down to a vote about gay marriage. Both sides put some effort into it, though none worked harder than Vander Plats.

Wiggins was retained with 54%, although Vander Plats (a perennial failed candidate for governor) called it a victory of course- saying that he had a large base of support that won't be ignored.

It was also a tough week for the Ames Straw Poll.

Iowa's Republican governor has said it has "outlived its usefullness."

Of course, it's not up to him and I doubt it goes away. It's a big fundraiser, a big boost for the state, the local economy, and the party. Party chairman AJ Spiker has been pretty defensive about it in the wake of the governor's comments.

Still, let's look at last year's poll which was won by Michelle Bachmann (rarely considered a serious threat to Obama) and scared a possible contender in Tim Pawlenty out of the race.

Eventual caucus winner Rick Santorum finished 4th (getting just under 10% of the poll's support) and eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney skipped it all together (as did Rick Perry who waited until it was over to announce his candidacy).

The Poll hardly picks a winner and is a list of failed attempts - Bachmann in 07, Romney in 03, Gramm in 95 (he tied with Dole), Pat Robertson in '87 and Georger HW Bush in 1979.

If you give it too much thought, you might a slo conclude the Iowa GOP caucus is about useless too (winners like Santorum and Huckabee, and way too much support for runners-up like Robertson and Gary Bauer).

Still, I dig this stuff, so hopefully no one notices this fact as well.

Current Music: Social Distortion- Mommy's Little Monster
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/901708.html

There's nothing better for a politician than after the election.

It is actually not a bad thing. It humanizes them.

Bob Dole was a boring old, white guy before 1992, but after the election, we got to see his lighter side as he showed some of his trademark wit and humor (Sure, we finally got sick of seeing him hawking viagra and making goo-goo eyes at Britney Spears, but it would never have happened if America hadn't come around to embrace him).

The same can be said of John McCain circa 2000, a candidate that ended up being loved by both sides of the aisles, to the point people were suggesting he might be John Kerry's running mate. (My friend R reminds me that McCain ain't that popular with liberals nowadays.

You can even say it for Rick Perry, whose career seems dead but may be getting ready for a second act. His self-deprecating humor at June's Gridiron Dinner makes him a prime candidate for the 2016 GOP nomination (according to Newsweek. See, I am not the only one talking 2016 already. Add that to Newsweek's other observation - that Jeb Bush is a dull speaker- and you may be on to something.)

Form the Dallas News's coverage: He poked at front-runner Mitt Romney several times. At the debates, Perry said, “I kept waiting for him to say, `Pardon me, would you have any Grey Poupon?’ ”

Yeah, that's pretty good.

So it goes for Mitt Romney who is in the news now more than he was those last few days before the election.

Oh, sure on a political front, it's not so good. Romney blaming his election loss on an implication that Latinos and Afircan-Americans would get a gift from Obama in exchange for their votes (a comment that is getting ridiculed by Newt Gingrich and other Republicans)

Instead, it's the Mitt Romney that is taking the kids to Disneyland and going down the roller coaster in his business casual dress.

Equal noteworthy was Romney taking the family to see the new Twilight movie and even *gasp* pumping gas in San Diego.

I suppose even them it's probably curtains for Willard, but maybe he still has one more future high profile job left in him.

Meanwhile, Obama can do the things he can't do when he was running for President.

Like inviting "Gangnam Style' star PSY to the White House.

Okay, maybe not quite yet, but after a post-election interview with The Associated Press in which Obama admitted that he just saw the video and thought he could do the dance. Well, the rumors won't go away.

Obama did have Olympic hero McKayla Maroney and the other medal-winning gymnasts over to the White House; and yes- even Obama asks to do the "Not Impressed" face.

Current Music: The Stranglers - Suite XVI
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/901478.html

I think it is customary to at least wait a month before discussing the next election.

Some didn't even wait until Election day.

After Hurricane Sandy, a Fox news reporter asked Chris Christie if he would have Mitt Romney tour the damage with him, and Chrisite answered "Meh."

Really. Christie said ""I have no idea nor am I the least bit concerned or interested. I've got a job to do here in New Jersey that's much bigger than presidential politics and I could care less about any of that stuff"

Of course, there is a slight possibility that Chris Christie actually meant what he said, and actually cares about people's lives more than politics.

Still, Christie's comments that included praise to Obama's handling of the Storm (all while still endorsing Romney) is pure feed for the Right-Wing blowhards.

While, one could make the jump that Christie is interested in the seat for himself in four years (as opposed to waiting eight years with a Romney victory), and we all figured a Romney defeat meant a Christie Presidential bid- we actually ended up with a different prevailing theory- the freeper sites have been embracing the theory that Christie is really a Democrat in disguise and only intention was to throw the election all the way along (Christie's offenses include turning down a Romney rally, and turning down the Veep offer).

Besides, Gov. Christie phoned the victor and e-mailed the loser. ZOMG! He called Obama and e-mailed Romney.

In any case, there's nothing Christie can do to redeem himself in front of these Conservatives. Right-wing sites, one by one, blame Christie for costing the Republican's White House and there's no way Christie will ever get back in their good graces.

So, there you have it. All the big names blaming Christie- Beck, Ingraham, Dobbs, Dick Morris, Murdoch, O'Reilly, The Washington Times- thus it looks like his 2016 chances may be doomed, but get this, many of those are calling for him to leave the Party.

The Right wing is notoriously short-memoried when it comes to such stuff. A serious Gingrich Presidential campaign would have been highly unlikely ten years ago. i am also fairly certain even Bill Cunningham came back around to McCain.

Still, this will make for some interesting viewing.

I thought Chris Christie might be our 45th President. I still think it's possible. The question might be is will he be a Republican or a Democrat.

Current Music: Bob Dylan - Tempest
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/900279.html

Ten things I will remember from the Obama rally.

1- Downtown businesses were closed, except Jimmy John's stayed open and was roped off. they could have made a killing, but I don't think they did. I suggested that we could order some subs and have them delivered ten feet away. Some people eventually got that idea.

2- When I get old, I can go to rallies and dress like Uncle Sam.

3. - This rally famously featured the president crying, but we couldn't see any of that

4- In line, my friend R told me a conversation he had lately with a 19-year old "If Obama gets elected. I'm moving to Canada. I hate Obamacare (socialized medicine)." Let that one sink in.

5. Like five years ago, Obama ended his speech with the story of Edith Childs, a supporter in South Carolina, who coined "Fired Up, ready to Go". So, maybe I didn't get a lot of original content, but then again, I knew Bruce was going to end his set with "Land of Hope and Dreams", so why shouldn't Obama play his greatest hits, too.

6. I can't capture the genius of Springsteen's "spontaneous" Adam Sandler-esque campaign rally song "Forward", but he did mention that its hard to come up with words that rhyme with Obama, and it ended with the lyric "Fox news thinks he smokes Marijuana".

7. Besides businesses, there are apartments in the area. There also were the expected 'secret service men on the roof'. I thought about taking a picture of that, but thought it might not be the best idea. The loft apartments meant some people (mostly young adults) were able to watch the rally from inside their house. It also meant when one college-age dude wanted to open his window, the secret service shined a light on him, and with a nod to the Texas Book Depository, made him shut it.

8. Local business made reference to the visit. One boutique advertised "25% off, Michele Obama only"

9. The crowd was fairly civil for 20,000, though for a moment I had a 6'4" guy in front of me. Additionally, not too many things would draw together a hipster in a Sonic Youth stocking cap and a 50-something blue-collar union worker.

10. I did get a political button to add to my collection. There was swag for sale, but the day before the election, it wasn't really moving. No signs were let in, but rallies are constructively created, so we all had Forward! signs in our hands by the end.

Not the greatest pics in the world, but they're mine.. oops, I mean, they are all website exclusives.

( Website exclusives )

Current Music: Faith No More- Angel Dust
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899938.html

Election Day Eve, I made it downtown to watch The Boss.

He had Springsteen with him.

We got there about four hours early and the people in front of us got interviewed with radio.

Things were fairly civil though and it was either warmer or I prepared better, but I didn't shiver like I did outside for Kerry and Edwards eight years ago.

It wasn't the greatest of set ups, and it ended up we were roped into a section that put us a ways away. we jumped the ropes like a few others which bought us about thirty feet (We had confirmation #s and rsvp'd so it was a bit hard to figure out which sectio nwe were supposed to be in the first place (tickets or non-tickets).

Oh, yeah, and I already had voted early, so if Obama finally revealed his socialist Muslim plan, it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

A rockabilly band opened. I have no idea who they were (bad job out of them). I would assume local trio Rumble Seat Riot, but their website doesn't mention it (nor does any of the other prominent local rockabilly acts) .

This was my first time seeing Springsteen, and it wasn't like I could yell out "Badlands" or was going to get a two hour set.

Still, Bruce is amazing. He played four songs, and then one of them was a goofy campaign song. I had mentioned it in an earlier blog post that was based on the Des Moines Register's coverage of Bruce and Barack's Ames stop. The thing is that it doesn't translate well to print.

Bruce was funny, personable, and his voice was amazing. It was an acoustic set, and so there was no Max or no 'guy from Sopranos' (He did say Patti was was in attendance).

He opened with "No Surrender", an okay enough song that sounded like an American folk classic the way Bruce delivered it that night. He followed with "The Promised Land" (from Darkness on the Edge of a town). I wasn't expecting an album cut. Of course, he closed with "Land of Hope and Dreams". "Land.." (like much of the new album) didn't really grab me right away when I listened to it on the radio. However, in a live version, it is as good as any of Bruce's big hits.

There was also an invocation (What? No Jeremiah Wright?) and American flags everywhere (but my Facebook friends say there's never any American flags at Obama rallies?).

Michelle spoke followed by Barry. There is no doubt that Barack may be the best orator we have had in the White House (Clinton may be better on camera, but I have seen both live, and in that atmosphere, listening to Barack can gives you chills).

His speech was very similar to the one he gave when I saw him the other time five years ago when he was running a close second to Hillary.

Still, it was an amazing event to attend. Because of my location and the positioning of the lights, there is a lot of blur on the pictures I took. Additionally, as I said, I wasn't the closest, but we did end up win a decent spot (We actually could have got really close to Bruce, but because of the angling wouldn't have been able to see Barack very well.

I will post photos soon.

Current Music: U2- The Unforgettable Fire
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899796.html

I am getting close to going to bed. It's going to be called before 10PM, I think, or at least 10:30 as Math becomes Romney's enemy.

Iowa was one of nine states that were supposed to decide the election. Interestingly, it looks like most of those 9 will end up Blue as Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and here in Iowa seem to be solid in Obama's column, and Florida, Nevada and Colorado likely will follow suit.

As I go to bed, Obama leads Iowa with a sizable lead 57-42, much wider than the 5 percentage points the Register had this weekend.

Which means it might be a good time to reflect on my poll. you remember the yard sign poll which gave a preference to Obama.

There were 10 Obama signs and 8 Romney signs with one errant Ron Paul sign thrown in.

Let's do some math:

We throw out the Paul sign (Paul is not even on the ballot) and we get 10 of 18 total signs in support of Obama. 10 over 18 equals 55.55. Rounded up is 56%

Call that 56% in support for Obama and you will see I predicted the election in Iowa to 1 percentage point.

The Register as famous as it is, put Obama's support at 47% and gave him a 5 point lead.

I gave you 56-44. Remember that.

Don't worry. My first 2016 commentary starts tomorrow, so be sure that you tune in so you have all the answers first,

Current Music: Black Sabbath- We Sold Our Soul for Rock 'n' Roll
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899544.html

There were plenty of political ads this year and they were all pretty typical- the tea party slogan- "You've been taxed enough already, and I am going to stop it."

My favorite local race was a tea Partier attacking his opponent for having spent money on buying decorative flower pots to put in downtown Des Moines.

Hmmm.. I thought. I think that sounds reasonable. You want to get people to come downtown to spend money on local business. I am pro-flower pot.

Still, I get it. You have to start cutting somewhere in this era of TEA Parties and vocal Libertarians.

Which means, "I Voted" stickers got nixed in Polk County, Iowa.

Nobody gives a thought to those stickers until they are gone, and they were a big deal on the local Facebooks.

In any case, the county auditor says it wasn't in the budget, and so, no stickers for Polk County voters. Ubiquitous as lollipops from the doctor's office, suddenly they were no more.

Jamie Fitzgerald (the aforementioned Polk County Auditor) did make a point that it was illegal for companies to discriminate against the non-sticker wearers (It is popular here for coffee shops to offer a free latte for people wearing a 'I vote' sticker or something similar).

Fitzgerald says he received an email from the secretary of state's office about the stickers. It says federal law dictates that if a business offers such an incentive they have to offer it everyone — sticker or no sticker.

Current Music: Neil Young-Americana
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899163.html

Barack Obama spoke in Des Moines last night. he spoke in the East Village- arguably Iowa's hippest area. Home to Zombie Burger, gay bars, boutiques, ZZZ Records, and more.

Iowa's hippest and hottest t-shirt store is also relocated there, and they were not amused.

Obviously, the Secret Service had to comb over everything, and raygun's owner didn't like it.

Surprisingly, this news story hit the internet hard, getting posted on Free Republic and similarright-wing blogs as proof that small business owners hate Obama.

Freepers ran this as it was a repeat of the story of the State Fair beer tent that lost $25,000 when Barry Hussein showed up.

Of course, they would.

Not knowing Raygun, maybe you would jump to that same conclusion. However, it helps to know more about raygun- maker of hip t-shirts (like 'Rock out with your caucus out') that usually contain Iowa in-jokes (like 'No sleep til Brooklyn (Iowa)').

However, you better stop before you make the jump in logic. I wouldn't doubt that half the Raygun staff might not be voting for Obama; but it's only because they are voting for Jill Stein.

Raygun gave us Corporations are people too t-shirts, as well as pro gay marriage t-shirts which people wore to Michele Bachmann rallies ironically.

So, if you see this story, don't bite. I am sure they don't appreciate the uproar caused by a Presidential visit, but there's no chance in hell those small businesspeople are voting Willard.

Current Music: Pet Shop Boys - Yes
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/899046.html

If you haven't been to the polls yet, you might be surprised to see Santa Claus on your ballot.

LJ user darkwaver found this on Maryland's practice ballot:

However, it's all true. Santa Claus is running for President in 15 states.

Santa (nee Thomas O'Connor) is facing his second election, in which he is campaigning largely through social media, and unsurprisingly, has a children first platform.

Santa says he visited every governor's office from 2005 to 2007 and always got a good reception (except when he visited Mike Huckabee).

For reasons I am unsure of, folk singer Tracy Chapman is his running mate.

Santa has a website, of course, but sadly, it looks like he has withdrawn and is endorsing Jill Stein.

Of course, I am not surprised, here's a list of reasons I would not vote for Mr. Claus.

-Santa lives a whole year on one night's work. How does he pull that off? I demand to see his W2.

-Although he can surely see Russia from his house, Santa's residence isn't located in the US (Greenland owns the North Pole, don't they?). Worse, I always heard the first appearances of Santa came from Holland and Germany. The birthers would have a field day.

-Reindeer pull the sleigh? Animal right activists aren't going to vote for him.

-When's the last time someone with white hair was in the Oval Office. Santa needs some Just for Men, or he's likely to have the same fate as John McCain and Walter Mondale.

-When I grew up, kids got solid handcrafted (by elves presumably) toys. Now every child I know gets toys that were made in China under the tree. How can we trsut a businessman who outsources jobs like that.

-Santa gives presents to all the good little girls and boys. Sounds a bit like socialism to me.

-He knows when you are sleeping? The Patriot Act-fearing libertarians are going to have some trouble with that.

It's a shame of course, that such a successful entrepreneur and outsider might have some good ideas, but it was obvious that Claus in 2012 was doomed from the start.

Current Music: The Byrds - Greatest Hits
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/898769.html

America is the example of democracy. We want everyone to follow our lead across the globe.

So we don't have a problem with a few United Nations observers traveling to Iowa to sit in on our election in Iowa, right?

Iowa's Secretary of State Matt Schultz has a problem with that.

If they show up, he's arresting them.

You may remember Schultz. He has been fighting a one-man war against voter fraud, looking to pass laws and try to ferret out voter fraud wherever he sees it. His extensive work this summer has already brought 2 Canadians and one Mexican to justice.

I don't know that I necessarily disagree with Schultz's views. it's just that for some reason I don't feel his thoughts exactly match what comes out of his mouth.

I suspect Schultz thinks the observers are either some United Nations/New World Order or some Marxist/Socialist plot to rig the election in Iowa for Obama.

Besides, Schultz has been quiet about Romney supporters who have been training poll workers in Iowa to ask for photo id (photo id isn't required to vote in Iowa).

The election is about over, but we are stuck with a couple of more years of Schultz's paranoia.

Current Music: Townes Van Zandt - The Late Great Townes Van Zandt
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/898363.html

This election will surely stand out for a variety of reasons.

History will tell us those, but it is safe to assume that one of them will be 'This is the first election where we got in our friends' faces with our political views'.

I do hate that we have entered a time in politics where it is all about 'not giving an inch to your opponent', and no one cares about actually working together to solve problems. (60 Minutes touched on this earlier tonight with an interview with Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid, in which they said the right words, but gave the distinct impression that they were not particularly happy to be there together).

Although I have been pretty outspoken about my political views here, this forum is set up in such a way that you know what you are going to get. Of course, only a dedicated few use LiveJournal in 2012.

So, of course I am talking Facebook. I would note that I don't post political messages there (I hardly post there at all, in fact), I am okay with it. I also have life-long friends who I have a deep political divide with. However, i do find some solace in that as the years go by, things don't change.

Facebook has become such a part of people's lives though, that this is where things go awry. FB is a medium in which we can push our viewpoints in front of dozens of eyes, and those eyes are varied- close friends, co-workers,schoolmates, relatives, etc.

I shrug it off (though I do find some fascination in finding out what that person I know to talk to, but barely am acquainted with, does when he/she goes in the voter booth), but even I am about sick of hearing about Mitt and Bronco every day. Of course, we know some offenders are worse than others - people who disagree with me (of course), but also those that post things that would be quickly dis-proven by a quick trip over to Snopes. In accordance with that, there is one post from someone I respect deeply (and mostly disagree with) that went for the extreme analogy - in this case, the word he used was 'traitor', but this also could be attributed to those who use terms like 'Nazi' and 'hater of America'.

USA Today did a story on this awhile back and it's not surprising.

A friend posted some negative information about presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Facebook, and Perlow, who considers himself a moderate, pointed out what he saw as flaws in that commentary.

That online disagreement escalated into an offline disintegration of their more-than-10-year friendship.

"He got really angry with me," says Perlow, 43. "He defriended me on Facebook and told me not to send him any more e-mails. He also defriended my wife, who had nothing to do with it."

Such, it seems we run into the problems of social media. We feel free to post our innermost thoughts, even if we wouldn't go around saying it out loud. (Although maybe we make assumptions like that in real life, too. An acquaintance of mine spoke highly in support of the Chik-Fil-A's CEO stand against gay marriage, something I am not okay with).

I don't know what the answer is, though hopefully I try to be on the side where I am only pushing my thoughts in front of people who are genuinely interested in them.

It also shouldn't be surprising that enterprising developers already have a 'take the politics out of Facebook' program avaialble for those who want it.

Current Music: Kramer- The Guilt Trip
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/898180.html

The Des Moines Register is releasing their last poll of the election season- which gives Obama a 47-42 lead here in Iowa (which is in line with my findings).

Early voting gives Obama a 22% lead. Not surprising that the people who generally don't like any kind of change in their lives- are traditional to the point to waiting to Tuesday.

Iowa has a few other elections to keep an eye on. Steve King is running to retain his seat againsyt Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsach. King should win easily in the heavily Conservative Western part of the state. Still, Vilsach made him sweat which is saying something. At the most optimistic, Vilsach is down by 5 percentage points.

The judicial retention election of Judge David Wiggins is also a big deal. Wiggins was a judge appointed by a Republican governor, but none of that matters because Wiggins voted to overturn the defense of Marriage Act in Iowa, legalizing gay marriage in this state.

A strong effort headed by perennial GOP candidate Bob Vander Plaats was enough two years ago to toss three judges off the Court who had voted like Wiggins.

This year, Vander Plaatshas been hitting hard, but there was some early pro-Wiggins ad support early on. There also is the lack of the ambush surprise that came in 2010.

At this point, 38% of Iowans said they will vote to retain; 34% against retention; and 22% stating they were undecided.

Romney is here today. Ryan is here tomorrow.

The Boss is here on Monday.

He will have Bruce Springsteen with him, as well.

It's not over, but you can see the end from here....

Current Music: Marty Robbins- Gunfighter Ballads and Trail Songs
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/897817.html

We are (to quote Joey Tempest) in the final countdown to Election Day.

Both candidates are airing constant campaign ads on tv.

Obama is hitting on Bain and women's issues. Romney counters with an ad that features a woman who says "I thought Romney was against all abortion, but he supports abortion in instances of rape, incest, and when the mother's life is in danger. Besides, what I really care about is the economy."

No, really.

I'm quoting it word for word.

It's supposed to be a grab for the moderates. I mean Romney is running it. I just can't help but think it will piss off those Republicans who say 'abortion never ever' and put them over in Virgil Goode's camp.

Still, the really memorable ads are on the radio.

Romney's are pretty basic.

Obama's are terrible.

There's nothing worse than 'corporate hipness' and Obama's ads read like the lamest McDonald's copy.

I already covered the urban "We got your back" ad.

the local classic rock station has been hit pretty hard with this ad.

It reminds me of Dennis Leary's Ford ads. I like Leary, but it's hard to sound like an Angry Young Man, when you are trying to shill for a company.

Obama's pitchman doesn't have Leary's presence, but he tries to pull it off.

"Romney has two Business degrees, but he doesn't know anything about economics, amirite?

It's hard to take serious any ad which features the words 'come on, man'.

Still, there is a certain art to combine an obvious slant with a stumbling attempt to sound like the man on the street. Think CBS Records' 1968 pitch "The Man can't bust our music."

So, I present the Obama campaign with a radio ad that sounds like it connects with the common man, but doesn't actually do that.

"Hey, like most of you. I have a fantasy football team. It is a fun time to talk trash with my friends, but I know that if I really want to win, then I have to read up on each player, and it's important to set my line up early in the week. If I wait until the game starts, it may be too late and my team may end up losing.

I have read about both of the political players, and I know the importance of setting my lineup early next week before the ball gets kicked off.
Set your lineup on Tuesday by going to the polls and put in Barack Obama as your Flex player. Otherwise, if you wait, then it is bad news for your team.... and bad news for America."

Take it, Obama, if you want. it's free

Current Music: Van Halen -s/t
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There are a few diehard Joss Whedon fans here, so this may be old news.

This is worthwhile though.

Of course, not even Joss can compete with a four-year old. That is why this child has hit the YouTubes as the most talked about young 'un on the internet since David After Dentist.

If you have made it this long without seeing it, then watch this four year old who's tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney.

Current Music: Muse- The 2nd Law
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/896942.html

Although I doubt anyone ever makes their mind based on newspaper endorsements, the Des Moines Register has endorsed Mitt Romney.

The Register generally strikes me as liberal, and indeed, the last Republican they endorsed was Richard Nixon.

Interesting.

Also, I doubt celebrities make much difference, but Bruce Springsteen gave a free concert in Ames in support of Barack Obama. I have to say that was tempting, though the cold, rainy week day scared me (3500 fans weren't deterred).

"Let's vote for the man who got Osama, and when I leave Iowa, I'm going to Botswana" the man who wrote Born to Run and Atlantic City told the crowd.

Meanwhile, across the state, Binders Full of Women were campaigning for Mitt in the 'We Know Mitt' tour.

Still, in Iowa, there is early voting, so many (including this blogger) can't be swayed because they have already cast ballots. For now, thaqt benefits the Democrats, who have already done this by a margin of over 20% over their Republican counterparts.

I have also heard about Vote While You Shop locations that are popping up at grocery stores and strip malls. For me, I went to the local library which is set up as a permanent polling place to Election Day, and it was busier than one would expect.

Vote While You Shop is an interesting play that makes thing convenient by allowing locations to sprout up on college campuses, and makes things interesting by placing ballots outside of bars.

Of course, by voting early, you risk the possibility of an October Surprise that might sway your vote. An October Surprise like The Donald's "game changer", and by "game changer" a publicity stunt that was the death knell for any credibility and integrity that The Donald might have on a national political stage.

Although, it did give us this:

Ricky Gervais- "I will give $500 to charity if Donald Trump gives up his hairdresser's passport and college records."

and this:

Stephen Colbert countering Trump's $5 million donation to charity if he can see Obama's passport and college records, by offering $1 million to charity if Trump lets Colbert dip his balls in his mouth.

... and by balls, yes, he means testicles.

Of course, Colbert is a professional comedian, but that doesn't mean that amateurs like Barry and Willard don't want to give humor a shot themselves.

In one of the bizarre moments on the national political scene is the two candidates trading quips at the Al Smith Dinner.

Some good stuff from both:

"Ultimately, though, tonight is not about the disagreements Governor Romney and I may have," Obama said. "It's what we have in common -- beginning with our unusual names. Actually, Mitt is his middle name. I wish I could use my middle name."

(Obama) said he enjoyed having time to be in New York and shop at some stores in Midtown: “I understand Gov. Romney went shopping for some stores in Midtown.”

“You’re an equal-opportunity basher, aren’t you?” the mic picked up Romney saying with a smile, before turning to the white-tie crowd and saying, “It’s nice to finally relax and wear what Ann and I wear around the house.”

On Joe Biden, Romney said he wished the vice president could be there because he “laughs at everything

The two men meet again for the third and final debate on Monday in Boca Raton, Fla. That debate will focus on foreign policy, which prompted this line from Obama: “Spoiler alert — we got bin Laden.”

Politico has more here.

Current Music: Elefant- Sunlight Makes Me Paranoid
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/896551.html

I put together an unbeatable election polling process together awhile back.

It was controversial sure, but let's look at the facts.

From September 3 through September 28, every major pol had Obama ahead of Romney (CNN had 50-46, NBC had 51-44 to name, but two).

On September 25 my findings came out putting Romney ahead of Obama. The first major poll to put Willard ahead.

...but not the last.

On October 4, Investors Business Daily, PPP, Zogby, and Rasmussen (four major, independent pollers) all declared Romney ahead of Obama by two to four points (a fifth poll released that day, Gallup had the two candidates locked in a tie at 49% each).

So, not am I just correct, I am quicker to gathering the pulse.

This week, I did something slightly different. I walked the local neighborhood looking at the yardsigns. Besides, not everyone is going to vote, but one hopes that those motivated enough to put up a sign will.

I have talked about my precinct before. In 2004, it went for Dubya, and in 2008, flipped Blue to Obama. If one could predict where these neighbors' heads are at, then one could probably call the election over and done.

So?

Obama 10
Romney 8

There was also one Ron Paul for President sign. I am not really sure what do with that bit of info. Is that person going to write in Paul (likely), hold their nose and vote Romney, or pull the level for Gary Johnson.

I would guess that first option. I have mentioned here numerous times that more Ron Paul signs were in view this Spring than there ever were before the Caucuses (like you know, when that stuff mattered).

Let's put it like this:

Obama 52.6%
Romney 47.4%
Gary Johnson (?) .2%

It is an interesting development that there are so many Obama signs out now. The Blue and White classic looking Obama-Biden signs sprouted quickly, and though I reported awhile back that Romney signs outnumbered Barry;s 3-1 across the Des Moines metro area (which was true at the time), the Dems have been busy.

Indeed, although I don't have numbers (like I got from my walk), Barack surely has the lead.

Still, that Ron Paul sign started to bug me.

You see, plenty of people put up signs, but sometimes they don't post that Presidential one. All politics are local, and there are at least four races around here that are closely contested.

Surely, if you are voting for say, Kevin Koester, Republican candidate for state house, you would also vote for the corresponding party at the top of the ballot, right?

So, let's look at those numbers.

Houses with Republican candidate yard signs: 16
Houses with Democrat candidate yard signs: 12

That pollwould indicate a Republican preference of 57%-43%.

One house had both a sign for Koester and his opponent John Phoenix, which either means that a Republican and a Democrat live there, the house is empty, or the Homeowner will put up any sign that anybody asks him to.

Of course, I feel that even these numbers are a bit inconclusive, as a good chunk of the GOP signs belonged to the Republican candidate for Sheriff. We do have a close race for Sheriff, but in that race, voters are not voting for the Party or the Platform, they are voting for the individual. in local races, a candidate for Sheriff could be a neighbor, a friend, or someone who shares a church or school.

That of course, doesn't take in account people who are independent and vote all different ways on their ballots, or Republicans who unhappy with Romney, might cast a vote for Johnson or Virgil Goode.

I am happy with both of my polls above. i absolutely, positively guarantee that one of them is right.

Current Music: NME presents Songs To Save Your Life (Compiled by Morrissey)
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At this point, i have been following things close enough that I can actually provide some real insight, so I accidentally stumbled on something while talking to a friend on the phone.

Unless you are one of the few people who have their feet on the ground (like the Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich), then you are just a person who is reading those dispatches and reporting on them. So thus, I am not that far removed from doing what Chris Matthews or Rush Limbaugh does.

It also should be noted that nothing is original, and what I am going to share is someone else's observation. Political writing is often taking others words and refocusing on it. Where I feel that I am falling into the category of 'real insight' is that I am not hearing anyone else say this right now. In fact, my observation is based on a view that was observed over six months ago.

So, here it is:

Mitt Romney is only good when he's not in the lead.

Observe.

In 2007, he made his appearance on the Presidential scene as the guy who seemed destined to be President. He arrived with a resume and a reputation that painted him as the clear cut favorite.

What happened? Well, despite being the favorite and despite buying everyone barbeque, from the Ames Straw poll until caucus night, Romney's support crumbled bit by bit, until unthinkably he lost to Mike Huckabee.

Four years later, in a field now void of the likes of McCain and Giuliani, once again, Romney was the instant favorite.

Romney led early polls and was again the inevitable nominee, though again, the masses loved him, but were not in love with him. Story after story appeared where prominent Republicans were reaching out to Govs. Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry and ex-Gov. Sarah Palin.

As you remember, Perry did decide to win and became the favorite. A fighting tough Romney slowly worked his way back up the polls, with his debate performances, and slowly working over Perry and a series of serious contenders like Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

The story doesn't end there. It should. At Christmas, it appeared that Romney would end up with a respectable victory, beating out his most serious contender, Ron Paul. As we know, that didn't happen. On election night, his victory was an eight-point squeaker past Rick Santorum; though a closer count would actually reveal Rick Santorum as the actual winner with 34 more votes than Mitt.

So, it seems the story is about to repeat again. Though you might argue that Romney never had the lead (If Romney was in first, then why in a poll in a battleground state like Iowa last week give Obama an eight point lead 51-43), after debate #1 and some Libya controversy, it certainly appeared that Mitt was once again in the driver's seat.

The door is closing on that opportunity given by those events. Both men went into the third debate as if this was now Romney's to lose, and sure enough, it's a pretty universal consensus that Obama had the better night. in a few days, Romney will once again be in a role that might be preferable in regards to his style of campaigning. The question would be if the timing is right.