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Iowa is in the spotlight again as the latest Des Moines Register poll is out.

To be honest, the results of the polls have not been surprising to me. They are in line with what I have seen and Dems I talked to. I know I fall in the trap of social media sometimes which can distort whose the loudest, but my gut is with the results as they currently show.

To that end, I think the Warren and Buttigieg ground campaigns are strong, and they are appealing with the voters of Iowa. It's not to say other candidates are not appealing (believe me, social media will tell you that their candidate is winning), but it is no surprise to me.

The headline that likely write itself is how liberal do Iowans want the Party to go.

The story as we get to the actual night itself will likely be around the uniqueness of the Caucus. If a candidate does not gain 15%, then they are not considered viable. The question then may be where do Booker and Harris supporters go. It may even be that Gabbard and Yang supporters join Bernie to try and get some delegates there.

In 2008, that is where someone like Bill Richardson or Joe Biden could not breakthrough, but their supporters largely went behind Obama to help propel him.

If you know me, you know I love this, and it pains me to mention any alternative, but I feel like I can't cover the whole story without mentioning Julian Castro's comments this week that Iowa is not diverse enough to hold the first primary.

The writers over at The Root go into some detail on how to fix it. They are not wrong, and perhaps an early Mississippi primary or a Regional Southern multi-state primary might go a great deal in fixing that.

That said, Iowa is so entrenched at being first, that I almost am uncomfortable stating as such, even under a pseudonym. It has also been ery successful for Democrats, launching Carter, Clinton, and Obama, that it surely reads "It ain't broke. Don't fix it".

If anything, it is nice to see the Democrats and Republicans (at least in this state) agree on something. It is hard not to love the Iowa Caucus, at least a little, when it forces candidates to be real and not hide behind a National podium.

Iowa State Political Science Professor Steffen Schmidt (writing in the Des Moines Register) offers up that Castro is example enough that the problem isn't Iowa, it's Castro. He points out that Castro is only drawing 3% in his home state of Texas (putting him in 7th Place), and is polling at 0% in 13th place in California. Schmidt also points out that despite the attention, Iowa doesn't have a disproportionate influence when it comes to delegates (Iowa has 49, while California has 495, Texas 262, Florida 248, and New York 327).

He also quotes longtime politico David Yepsen in saying that Iowa does not pick the nominee, but it does test if candidate has viability, and quoting the oft-mentioned "There's Three Tickets out of Iowa", which means you don't need to win Iowa, but you certainly can't finish sixth.

Anyway, let's look at the numbers:

Buttigieg 25%
Warren 16%
Biden 15%
Sanders 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Harris, Booker, Yang, Steyer, Gabbard 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Bennet 1%
Bullock, Castro, Stesak <1%

Combining first and second choices isn't perfect math, but allows you to somewhat visualize possible motion. This ties Buttigieg and Warren closer together.

Buttigieg 39%
Warren 36%
Sanders, Biden 28%
Klobuchar 12%
Harris 10%
Booker, Steyer, Gabbard 6%
Yang 5%
Bloomberg 3%
Castro, Bennet, Williamson 1%

Another poll is whether a candidate is being actively considered. This would also suggest Pete vs Elizabeth head to head and that Kamala Harris has some potential momentum.

Buttigeg 68%
Warren 66%
Biden 58%
Sanders 54%
Harris 46%
Klobuchar 39%
Booker 36%
Yang 33%
Steyer 26%
Castro 18%
Gabbard 17%
Bloomberg 14%
Bennet 11%
Bullock 8%
Delaney 7%
Sestak 3%

As always The Register analyzes the numbers, and so we put it here in easy to read format, kind of like those Chinese Restaurant Birthday Calendars.

Pete Buttigeig - Mayor Pete had 15% in June after some strong campaign visits, but fell to 9% in September. He does well with Moderates and Higher Incomes. He does less well with "Very Liberal" Dems and Union households. His Favorability of 72% leads the pack. His supporters want someone who can get legislation passed.

Elizabeth Warren- Warren does best with the "Very Liberal", though the Register suggests some defection. She has went from 9% in March to 15% in June to topping the poll with 22% in September and is now at 16%. Her favorability equals Pete at 71%, but she carries a 25% Unfavorable rating compared to Pete's 12%. Her supporters want "Big Ideas"

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders- Biden's biggest strength is that his supporters think he will beat a Donald Trump, a sentiment that isn't as strongly held by anyone else. His support with Over 65 and Rural voters is moving over to Pete. His numbers have been on a steady slide from 27% in March.

Undoubtedly, Bernie's strength is the certainty of his supporters that they will back him. 57 % of his supporters have their minds made up, as opposed to 27% for Pete. Bernie, probably unsurprisingly, is very popular with Liberals, fighting with Warren over those voters. Sanders has polled from as high as 25% to as low as 11% this year.

Amy Klobuchar- Amy has been polling at 2-3%, so this is her best showing to date. She does best with Seniors, and the Register thinks this poll will help get her in the December Debate as requirements get harder.

Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard- Harris had been polling at 6-7%. She saw her numbers drop as her favorability has also dropped. Her best numbers are with those who describe themselves as "not very liberal"

Booker has never polled more than 3%, but he does finish seventh under those that might be actively considered. He has also taken a hit in favorability ratings. The Register says he has the most consistent appeal across various categories, but his weakest points are with Independents and First Time Caucugoers

Yang's numbers have seen a slow incline, and he has gained in favorabilily ratings (jumping from an initial 7% to 36% in September to currently 43%

Steyer joined the race in July and has seen a jump in his favorability rating. To the point where pollster Ann Selzer mentions its remark-ability in such a short time. Steyer does well with older voters, not very well with younger voters.

Gabbard has a high unfavorable rating with Democrats of 45%, but her numbers are going up. She does very well in the Western part of the State (the very Red Steve King district) and very well with Union households.

Michael Bloomberg - Just entering the race, and focusing almost exclusively on Super Tuesday, Bloomberg has the most unfavorable rating of any Dem (58%)

Michael Bennet - Bennet has stayed steady at 1%, but his Favorability numbers are on the upswing. He does best with "Hillary Primary 2016" voters

Steve Bullock, Julian Castro, Joe Sestak- Bullock also has seen an upswing in Favorability, but like Bennet (at 47%), Bullock is largely unknown (50%). Bullock does best with Seniors.

Castro is equal in the Favorable/Unfavorable poll question (35%). He does well with "Very Liberal" Democrats.

Sestak has high Unfavorable to Favorable results (8%+/24%-) and 69% are still undecided.

Marianne Williamson, John Delaney- This time around, no one selected wither Marianne or John as their first choice. Delaney was steady polling at 1%, but even people considering him has dropped off.

The Dems get the Sunday Paper Headlines, but the Register polls Republicans too.

It is interesting that the GOP seemingly wants to take away any competition for President Trump, when polling data shows he would crush the competition. I would almost certainly let it play out, instead of drawing attention to it.

I mean someone is going to run. In 2012, Obama faced challenges from Perennial Candidates (John Wolfe Jr, and Darcy Richardson, a prisoner (Keith Russell Judd), a guy that the Hayes, Texas newspaper hoped was related to Joe Ely (Bob Ely) , everyone's favorite political artist (Vermin Supreme) and the angry abortion guy (Randall Terry)- giving up over 353,000 to that crew and another 426,000 who voted uncommitted.

Yes, Trump may get some opposition, but among Iowa Republicans, his numbers are strong, and even growing, if that is possible. His approval is 85% among Republicans, and 76% said they would definitely vote for him.

Also, of note, Republicans think Mayor Pete is the toughest opponent, Sanders the easiest.

As far as opposition goes, they are largely unknown, but have small Favorabilty scores (Joe Walsh 8%, Bill Weld 4%). Mitt Romney has swung from being a mostly liked Republican figure (65% +/ 21%-) to the other way in a year's time (36%+/46%-).

The Poll asked Republicans if their allegiance was to Trump (41%) or to The Party (43%). Though it is probably good news for the GOP that they have younger voters, highly educated voters, richer voters, moderates and Western Iowans, Trump does well with Evangelicals and Very Conservative Republicans. This will be important in a post-Trump world, much like the big hole a charismatic leader like Reagan left.

Mike Pence is well liked too, with 82% Favorable among Republican voters.

If you are looking for more Republican numbers in Iowa, Emerson College is the most recent, and here are those results from about a month back.

Trump 93%
Weld 4%
Walsh 2%
Sanford 1%

Current Music: David Bowie- Diamond Dogs
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1201689.html

Crossposted at my 2020 Campaign Blog - https://iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

My last post talked about some of the recent concerts that accompanied the Presidential rallies.

No, I don't believe that the endorsement of a celebrity will push someone to vote for someone, but the endorsement does rally the base.

Somewhat ironically, the recent politicians who have energized the youth the most have been the oldest. Opposite sides of the spectrum supposedly, Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders have arguably best connected with young voters than anyone else running.

Let's talk Bernie Sanders - the guy who brought 5000 people to his rally in Iowa City with Vampire Weekend and Foster the People in 2016.

As mentioned in my last post, Sanders has had first, Jack White, and then Prince's New Power Generation appear with him. Any mention of Sanders also should include the fact that Cardi B is a very vocal supporter of his as well.

Sanders's musician fans is like a who's who. Besides the ones I mentioned above, there's also Ariana Grande, TI, Brandi Carlile, Killer Mike, Tony!Toni!Tone!, Belinda Carlisle, Mika, Dan Deacon, Portugal the Man, Deerhoof, Lil Yachty, Norah Jones, Buffy Ste. Marie, Jason Mraz, and that's if you don't count Lizzo's seemingly supportive tweet and all of the musicians who supported him in 2016, who must still like him at least a little.

He also has Raffi, which seems appropriate, for some reason.

There is seemingly enough surplus here that I could probably just focus on Bernie, but there are other candidates with energy who are grabbing some of the endorsements you might expect to go to Bernie.

I should also refer you to Spins donor list- which is a primary spot I used for this post- to note that musicians like Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt, and Joan Jett have donated to multiple candidates.

Surely, Andrew Yang scoring Weezer was a coup, and yet, the media seemed to downplay the whole thing as if Rivers Cuomo wasn't fully behind Yang- as Billboard called out.

I suspect there are other musicians drawn to Yang, but the only other one I saw called out was Liturgy (described as avant-garde metal).

Pete Buttigieg scored Ben Harper for the LJ Dinner, but he has also snagged some big Liberal names like David Crosby, Barbara Streisand,Mandy Moore, and Zoey Deschanel. Mayor Pete also has the endorsement of Joe Walsh. Walsh, the former Presidential candidate who played guitar for the Eagles is not to be confused with the Joe Walsh currently running for the Republican nomination. Besides Harper, he had Broadway star Ben Platt sing at one of his fundraisers.

In any other year, Elizabeth Warren would likely have the parade of musicians behind her. She has endorsements from John Legend, Roseanne Cash, Chely Wright, and Bette Midler. Melissa Ethridge has also performed for her and hugely vocal in support. The two marched in Boston's Pride parade back in 2018.

Cory Booker has been looking for momentum, but at least has scored the support of Steve Aoki and New Jersey's own Jon Bon Jovi.

Tulsi Gabbard has some maverick appeal, and it shows in her support from Sean Ono Lennon and Esperanza Spalding.

Kamala Harris has had a very musical campaign, but as far as I can tell, her biggest musician endorsements to date are Lance Bass and Tears for Fears's Curt Smith. She also has had contributions from kd lang and Demi Lovato.

Marianne Williamson surely has celebrity fans and followers, and endorsements included Chaka Khan, Taylor Dayne and Dave Navarro. However, she did have Katy Perry and Alannis Morrissette support her Congressional run in 2014, and Aerosmith's Steven Tyler often appeared with her and says she got him off drugs.

Dayne has played fundraisers for Williamson in New Hampshire.

Steve Bullock has support of actor/musician/Dude Jeff Bridges. No idea if Jeff is as touchy about being a musician as Billy Bob Thornton. Lyle Lovett called Bullock his "Favorite Democrat".

Joe Biden has many celebrity endorsers, but the only musician I have seen is Don Henley.

There were musicians who supported candidates who have since dropped. The clean-shaven Beto O'Rourke attracted Willie Nelson and the Grateful Dead's Phil Lesh. Jay Inslee's environmental message reached Stone Gossard of Pearl Jam and Carole King. Inslee also was supported by singer/songwriter/actress/model Lola Blanc and close, personal friend of Soundgarden (and Science Guy), Bill Nye. John Hickenlooper joined Big Head Todd on RAGBRAI, and has a history of music supporters like Todd and John Fogery.

It doesn't help that Steve Bullock (guitar/engineer), Micheal Bennet (Bennett-theater) and John Delaney (blues) have music related dopplegangers that make Google search a bit more challenging.

In any case, though not related, John Delaney and the Indestructibles is a great name for a band.

Current Music: British Sea Power - Do you like Rock Music?
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1199704.html

As a friend suggests, the general post-debate analysis is "my candidate definitely won that".

The second debate didn't have that shock of the first, but the idea solidifies- this is what 2020 looks like. The Daily covered some of the changes and the current scenario turns candidates into salesmen trying to get as many donations as they can. National candidates see that national TV show appearances like Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews do more to swell the coffers than to travel to Iowa and talk in front of 50 people. In short, you need to be established as a national candidate to compete, and the fact that Pete Buttigieg has broken through, only means it's the exception that proves the world.

In any case, no one probably watches this stuff but die-hard politicos, but here goes. The second series of debates will go down as the one where Marianne Williamson went from kook to serious contender. Hard-core politicos gasp at this idea, but perhaps they think the 2016 election was won by Donald Trump because he was a policy wonk.

Williamson was a bit nutty, sure, talking about "Dark Psychic Force" but she ended the night by making an appeal that we need to move toward making a bigger change by being better people. It was a strong message that set her apart. I had talked to someone who had seen her when the race had first begun. I thought she might be a Jill Stein-type out for herself and to take away what she could. What she told me, and what we learned from the debate was that Williamson does want to make the Democratic party a better place.

The first debate featured Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, I will get heat for it, and I know their supporters will claim victory, but I don't think they moved the needle any.

Better to be level headed in their approach, Beto O'Rourke and Pete Buttigieg stood out in contrast. Beto ultimately didn't seem to have anything to say, and so his performance was a bit of a wash. Mayor Pete got some pretty solid ground in, and his comment on the possibility of a solider dying in Afghanistan who hadn't even been born on 9/11/01 was strong stuff. Buttigieg appeared to me as someone who would surgically strike Trump in a debate, while Liz and Bernie would lose their cool.

Moderates took hits. John Delaney was drubbed by Warren. Tim Ryan was slapped by Bernie, and to quote a friend, his position looks like 90s-era GOP. Superficially, I felt Ryan must have let his hair go grey for this one to look older. Ryan was smacked with criticism for not holding his hand on his heart for the national anthem (Isn't the Pledge of Allegiance, anyway?).

By the way, I am not suggesting that they cut the Anthem- but I did notice it was about 14 minutes into a jam-packed short-for-time show. Wouldn't they be better served to get started and cut out the movie reviews (Extra Extra That Enzo dog from the Costner movie is now polling ahead of DeBlasio and Bennet).

Western Governors did not perform well in the first night. I was excited to see Gov. Steve Bullock, but his performance lacked. I personally thought Amy Klobuchar was great, but she almost seems too level headed to be up there. What irony in that she might be the best suited to be President, but she is not 'flashy' enough. Granted, I am not sure how much is attributed to the moderators not giving her much time.

So John Delaney probably should have looked at his performance on the first night and dropped out. He didn't. So you can still go to his website and buy John Delaney koozies, poker cards, stress balls, dog collars and "memory" erasers.

While we did see Inslee and Gabbard ads on the first night, they were in person on the second night. Gabbard's "pledge of allegiance" ad is striking and patriotic. Gabbard, at this point, will likely be a Ron Paul character with an extremely devoted audience. She will, however, not be the Democratic nominee.

Gabbard attacked Harris, which is probably a good thing. If Harris is going to be a major candidate, she is going to need to know what it feels like it is to be on the defensive.

Some media outlets claim Biden was a winner, but I didn't see it. It started out bad enough when he joined Harris onstage and told her "Go easy, kid".

From there, the moderators let Booker go after him. If this had happened under other circumstances, John Delaney might have been there been to interrupt, but without him, no such luck.

Biden (and DeBlasio) also lip-synced the Anthem, which is probably the wrong choice. Lip sync or stand silently? Those are the kind of questions they don't ask you in Political Science class. Future politicians, you're going to be glad you read me.

DeBlasio may be the most unpopular candidate ever, and protestors were there to yell "Fire Pantaleo", though at home, it sounded like gibberish, and wasn't particularly effective.

My son watched Michael Bennet and said he looked sad. Reports vary, some say Bennet was a winner, but I would say Kamala got the best of that exchange, and Bennet was one of the losers of the night.

Kirsten Gillibrand had a great joke about the need to Clorox the White House. Still, I think she is not being taken seriously and that was the last thing I would have suggested for her to do.

Corey Booker was a winner and I suspect we will finally see a bounce. I keep hearing how great he is as a speaker, and am a bit shocked he hasn't polled better to date.

If anyone else might have got a bounce, I would say Jay Inslee made the best performance of the so called "second tier". I can't quite write Inslee off, even as I begin to lose faith in that whole "Western Governor" group.

Some ideas to lively up the next debate

1- Such a crowded stage- 2 nights of 10 candidates. How about 4 nights of 5? 5 nights of 4? Maybe, ten nights (!) of one-on-one debate.

2- I think the moderator could ask the question to Michael Bennet. He could whisper his answer to Gillibrand and so on down the row a la the "Telephone" game and then once it gets to Bill DeBlasio on the other age, he could provide Michael's answer. Perhaps the Democratic platform could be drawn up that way.

3- People loved Jake Tapper and many at home opined if they could get someone like him at work to run their business meetings since he was such a task master.

As for me, can we go the other way? I have seen those panel talent shows with "good guy" judges and Simon Cowells. Maybe the next debate, add Mary Murphy, and every fourth question could be "Do you prefer Hot Dogs or Hamburgers?"

Ok, that's the end of my list, but the first debate hard transitioned into an ad for The Hunt. An intense ad that scared my 5 year old who watches the debate as intensely as I would have at the age. He's met Beto and said "We met him at the ballgame and now he's President!" ("Running, son, running")

The Hunt is a story of 12 strangers who don't know where they are or how they got there. It appears that they are being hunted for sport.

Clever for CNN to run it as a teaser for what might happen when they returned from break, but no such luck. Life in 2019 may be crazy, but we are not quite that depraved yet.

Thankfully.

Current Music: Gogol Bordello - Gypsy Punks: Underdog World Strike
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1179546.html

Read all my 2020 blog posts at https://iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

I had considered not blogging about the Democratic debates>

It has all been covered, right?

But, you know posterity and all. My blog may end up being the only shred of evidence of the 2020 election (You never know!) and no one will believe how ludicrous it was that 20 candidates debated over two nights.

So here’s my thoughts and some thoughts I gathered from friends:

-Kamala Harris is the obvious winner of the debates. I know she was an early favorite but her numbers seemed to go elsewhere. It is interesting to note that part of the Dems desired quality is to be able to go toe to toe with Trump. Trump seemingly has owned Warren (the DNA test) but Harris’s experience as a prosecutor, seems to make her the type of candidate Dems might want.

- A friend whose opinion I greatly respect said (when it came out the next day that her Biden speech was preplanned), yes it was preplanned, but it was a master stroke and created an everlasting meme. It also appealed to reason and emotion.

-I asked a Warren guy if not being on the second night was a disadvantage. She did not get to share the stage with Biden, Bernie, Pete or Kamala. He told me- first question and center stage on the first night, and making everyone else play catch-up was an advantage you wouldn’t be able to buy.

- I suspect everyone already has an opinion on Biden and Sanders. I think we saw the very best and very worst of Biden in the debate. That will be the decision to make.

We got Bernie taking Biden on early, and Joe probably thought that was probably as bad as his night would get. When the moderators asked questions that required a response, I felt like Biden looked around before raising his hand.

John Delaney sure got buzz but it was the wrong kind. Delaney acting impatient (and also his looks) became a meme. Indeed, “the Airplane guy” stuck even when it was part of a larger meme that forever cemented in my mind that Leslie Nielsen will play Jay Inslee in the biopic. (Fast Company captured all of the best Delaney memes)

I was told from a watch party participant that there was one thing we could agree on and that was Marianne Williamson was crazy. While I couldn’t listen to her speak without envisioning Stevie Nicks spinning around in a forest, the winning meme was the person who put her debate speeches to Twin Peaks music.

-Cory Booker was seen as one of the winners, so it was interesting to me that someone I spoke to who had seen him in person, said that he was much more energetic in person than he appeared on stage during the debate.

-The media may or may not have crowned Tulsi Gabbard a winner, but she was. She brings an interesting blend of Bernie domestic and economic policy and Ron Paul global and social policy. To her credit, she stands out in a crowded field. Unfortunately, Dems I know have been wary of her. She put those worries aside by making a stand as a Democrat and gave a strong performance.

- Andrew Yang won one of my friends over by not wearing a tie. I can imagine how that conversation went. “Hey, Bernie! Andrew Yang here. What do we wear to these things? I am thinking blue jeans and a nice shirt. Too informal?”

Yang probably didn’t move the needle, but I liked his closing appeal to Libertarians and Independents (and Republicans for that matter). One wonders how many Democrats (the party of Russ Feingold and Mike Gravel after all) switched allegiances to vote for Ron Paul, Gary Johnson and a populist Trump for that matter, and might vote for a Justin Amash candidacy.

Eric Swalwell made a splash, but he may have alienated older voters in doing so. Tim Ryan made an impression, but he may have done better if he hadn’t been onstage. Gillibrand seemed to narrow her message to women.

John Hickenlooper came across as an old man on stage (even with Biden and Bernie there, a decade his senior). A friend mused if he might have wandered off stage during the commercial break.

Julian Castro won points and Jay Inslee did too. Inslee aired an ad during the debate. Bill DeBlasio and Ryan were losers. The media painted Klobuchar as her jokes being flat, but some one I talked to at a watch party said they hit. I also heard it said she seemed sad, and suffered in comparison to Warren, who was one of the nights winners.

DeBlasio’s debate performance came on the heels of a gaffe by quoting Che Guevara at a Union rally. Michael Bennet avoided gaffes but couldn’t seem to find his voice.

Beto O’Rourke became a meme. Although, I think his bilingual responses were appreciated in some quarters; he had a bad night in what looks like a sinking campaign. Pete Buttigieg may not have made much impression, but he knew it was better to stay quiet and get his points in, instead of making a Beto-type gaffe. This was okay.

- Beto, Warren and Delaney (to name a few) tweeted during the debate , which I can only think means that they had phones under the lectern high school style.

My takes may be a week old but my suggestions to liven up the next debate are evergreen. I will even throw in my suggestion for the Democratic Party.

That the two night debate occurred the same week as two-decade old reality stalwart Big Brother is a good reminder that politics is a reality show.

-Here’s a parlor game for the viewers. Try to figure who’s not on stage. In this case, it’s Seth Moulton, who missed his Tim Ryan style chance to screw up his campaign for good; Joe Sestak who decided that there weren’t enough candidates running; Mike Gravel who plans to run for President without leaving his house, and Wayne Messam who Marianne Williamson thinks is too obscure. Also missing Steve Bullock who has buzz in Iowa but didn’t make the stage.

- There’s so many candidates- let’s split them into two teams Survivor style. Have a weakness? Find someone with that strength. Let’s make it super awkward and have them pick teams Grade School style. Zoom in on those last standing. Perhaps the television audience votes them off one at a time.
-
-There is no hotter show than this Spring’s Masked Singer which took famous celebrities and put them in body sized costumes. The crowd guesses the singer by a list of clues. 1)Ain’t no party like a West Coast Party 2) ‘Ello Guv’nah 3) I live for grunge and Starbucks

- Big colorful spinning wheels are popular. Wheel of Fortune has been the biggest game show for decades. Questions could be put on and spun. It worked well for Elvis Costello and his Wheel of Songs tour

- I would every candidate that if they wanted to be President so much, why did they decide to run. Clearly, there was an election four years ago. Why didn’t they run in that one? Bernie could sit that one out if he chose. Biden would be given extra time to answer.

Lastly, the Dems did show a variety of talent and that means that the eventual nominee should take cues from Team of Rivals and father the best parts of the party- Bernie’s healthcare plan, Mayor Pete’s student loan debt relief outline, Swallwell’s gun control policy and Marianne Williamson’s essential oils.

Bonus Commentary: Since I waited so long to post this, I can add IowaStartingLine's coverage of the first post-debate poll which has Elizabeth Warren jumping over Biden (or more conservatively, Warren, Biden and Harris in a 3-way tie). That particular survey shows Harris and Warren surging, but also net ceiling gains for Buttigeig and Castro.

It is interesting to note that when divided into three groups- those who watched the debates, those who followed the debates but did not watch and those who did not watch or follow the debates, three different scenarios play out. Harris was the winner of the first group followed by Warren. Warren was the winner of the second group followed by Biden, and Bden was the winner of the third group, followed by Sanders.

Current Music: Alvvays- Antisocialites
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1173233.html

With so many candidates, the New York Times interviewed them- giving 20 questions of all styles to each

This is important to tell your Hickenloopers from your Inslees, and who will do what if they get elected, but this blog isn’t about stuff like that.

There were some fun questions like “what is your comfort food?” and Eater already covered this. I am grateful for them bringing this to light.

Still, since we are your one stop shop, let me recap

Space age love song

A group of progressive forward thinkers reveals less forward thinking cuisine choices than you might think.

Cory Booker is a vegan and his choice is veggies to go. Tulsi Gabbard says Vegan Cupcakes which is a fantastic dichotomy as she is a fantastic dichotomy of Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders style issues. Andrew Yang picked Kind Bars (those rainbow wrapper granola bars which surely are no ones go-to snack

Grease is the word

Bill Clinton’s legacy hangs heavy over the Dems and apparently so does his diet. French fries says Kamala Harris. Seth Moulton and Steve Bullock both went with hamburgers. Beto O’Rourke widens his answer to “any fast food”. John Delaney goes oddly specific with “Two McDonalds grilled chicken sandwiches, no mayo”.

You probably never heard of them

Michael Bennet likely sent Yelpers to Pass Key in Pueblo Colorado for their Italian Sausage sandwich. Pete Buttigieg is a Beef Jerky fan and says he gets gifts of it as he travels. Eater reveals a tweet that shows the Mayor also is a big fan of string cheese and Gatorade as well.

Sugar on my tongue

John Hickenlooper and Jay Inslee are M&Ms guys, though Inslee says he’s banned them from his office for ‘belt security’ (Hey Oh!). Tim Ryan went with ice cream.

It’s Five O’clock somewhere.

Drinks were popular. Julian Castro with ice tea, and Eric Swalwell with mocha. Kirsten Gillibrand who has become a regular at the local gay bar went with “a glass of whiskey”. Hey now!

Supersize Me

‘Too much comfort food” says Bernie Sanders. It’s Pulled Pork for Bill DeBlasio. Amy Klobuchar went with a baked potato, not an obvious pick. Elizabeth Warren likes chips and guacamole.

There is no there there

Marianne Williamson is so life affirming but her answer of “I have no comfort food” is positively nihilistic. Joe Biden not answering any questions make it seem like he is turning into the Donald Trump that he is campaigning against.

Current Music: Mitski- Puberty 2
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1170951.html

My two passions are politics and music.

When the two collide, I really enjoy it.

I am not alone as when 19 candidates showed up at the Democrat Hall of Fame dinner, the walk up selections went viral.

Everyone from Slate to Vanity Fair to Spin to Vogue went to work writing an article and why not? What fun!

Here is what you need to know

I Would Have Called You Woody, Joe

The first thing most reporters noted was that there were 2 Clash songs selected. We have reached the generation growing up with Joe Strummer replacing the 60s icons as our go-to Political music spokesperson.

Beto O’Rourke is young and hip. That’s his thing, so it’s a natural pick. Heck, he has punk bona fides, playing bass with Cedric Bixler-Zavala before he went on to fame in At the Drive In and Mars Volta.

Clampdown is probably a good pick, with so many Clash songs about terrorist bombings, riots and avoiding the draft, the decision is tricky. Beto famously quoted it when running against Ted Cruz saying Ted worked for the Clampdown.

So, I get Beto but Bill de Blasio’s choice of “Rudie Can’t Fail” is odd.

Great song. It’s just that de Blasio isn’t even the first NYC Mayor who come to mind when I hear “Rudie”

Still, the Mayor went on CNN last month and said he loved the Ramones, Bob Marley, Peter Tosh, and ska.

He even was photographed at a Trash Talk concert (Keith Morris endorsed hardcore band whose biggest media moment besides the De Blasio pic, is the pic of a fan urinating into his mouth at a concert of theirs in Australia, which hit reddit fame).

(I’ll opt to show the de Basio pic)

He doesn’t feel “hip”, but when you are the mayor of the town that gave us CBGBs and Murphy’s Law. The remaining question is why he didn’t go NYC and use a Toasters song.

You Probably Never Heard of Them
Kudos to Amy Klobuchar who uses a Dessa song - “The Bullpen” -picking a constituent over a trendy artist. Dessa has appeared on NPRs Best Albums list and she contributed a track to the #1 album The Hamilton Mixtape.

"Dessa - The Bullpen" (Watch on YouTube)

Kirsten Gillibrand using Lizzo is a good selection. I would say “Good as Hell” isn’t Presidential, but these days, all bets are off

What you did there, I see it

Elizabeth Warren using Dolly Parton’s “9 to 5” is inspired. If you forgot, the movie is about kidnapping and planning to murder your boss to improve labor conditions. The only bum note is Dolly didn’t approve the usage.

Andrew Yang’s “Return of the Mack” is a pretty solid choice for old school swagger. John Delaney using “I’ve Been Everywhere” is brilliant, and highlights the time Delaney spent in the state.

Green New Deal advocate Jay Inslee used ELOs “Mr Blue Sky”. Subtle.

(Elle suggests he may have used the Weezer cover, though it was probably ELO and any case, the comment stands. )

Bernie Sanders using Lennon’s “Power to the People” is well fit and old news by now. Insert “What? No ‘The Internationale’? Joke here.

Cover of the Rolling Stone

The most popular song of 2019 “Old Town Road” by Lil Nas X was used by Tim Ryan. Everyone is talking about whether it’s Country music or not. Billboard says No but they also say Big &Rich, Florida-Georgia Line and Tim McGraw & Nelly are country, so...? It’s a topic everyone is taking about. No one’s talking about Tim Ryan. Well, it’s worth a shot. Maybe he should have came to the stage with a recording of “Yanny”/Laurel”?

I suppose there is a deeper meaning in Marianne Williamson’s “Higher Ground” (Wonder, not Chili Peppers) and Kamala Harris using Mary J Blige’s “Work That”, but otherwise they’re just great walk up music.

Same goes for Cory Booker using Bill Withers’s “Lovely Day” and Tulsi Gabbard with Marvin and Tammi’s “Ain’t No Mountain High Enough”. They are classics though there is a message. I could probably put them in the category below.

One of these days I am going to get organizized.

With this level of creativity, I suspect that their campaign poster is a kitten on a tree branch saying Hang in There
.
Michael Bennet used Springsteen’s “The Rising” which is what I would do if I was using “Generic Campaign Song” in a movie.
If not The Rising, then surely Mellencamp’s “Small Town”, picked by Montana’s red state governor Steve Bullock.

Pete Buttigieg used a rap/remix of Panic at the Disco’s “High Hopes”, which is just a hipster’s version of Springsteen or Mellencamp. Odd given, a professed love for Spoon, Radiohead and Phish

“Good Life” by One Republic (Used by John Hickenlooper, who otherwise seems to have good taste. He’s showed up on stage with Old Crow Medical Show before) is generic Campaign music for someone who thinks Mellencamp or The Boss are too edgy.

Eric Swalwell went with “Caught in the Country” by Rodney Atkins which is just n-th generation Springsteen (via Garth Brooks and Blake Shelton) flavored country anyway. At least it was contemporary and something not too overplayed.

(Bonus track: I actually have a friend who attended the dinner. He said it was a bit of a frenzied pace. He said the winners of the night were Booker, Warren and Klobuchar, which is in line with what Politico reported)

Current Music: Old 97s- Most Messed Up
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1169906.html

See the rest of my coverage of the 2020 election at iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/.

Many moons ago, I got on Howard Dean for President’s mailing list.

I was younger and brand new in town. I likely would have done anything to help Dean on his path. That I never heard word one back from The Dean Camp is a better explanation of why he imploded than any post-Caucus scream.

In any case, at a National level, Dean knew he had a movement and his mailing list and organization became Democracy For America, a progressive voice that can take credit for electing Ned Lamont and Al Franken.

To get a feel for DFA, in 2016, the groups online poll supported Bernie Sanders with an overwhelming 88% of the vote.

So what to take from the 2020 poll? I doubt much, but perhaps a real clue where those on the Left have their hearts. Since I get way too interested, here are results of the DFA Iowa poll

Sanders 43.7%
Buttigieg 10.2%
Warren 9.9%
Gravel 7.6%
Biden 6.3%
Yang, Harris , Gabbard 3.3%
O’Rourke, Booker 2.3%
Klobuchar 1.3
Inslee, Williamson, Delaney <1%,>.5%

Though this is a group within a group, there are a couple of thoughts I have. First, who is Bernie’s heir?

There are those who have bona fides by endorsing him in 2016- Tulsi Gabbard and Jeff Merkley. Elizabeth Warren is an obvious choice but of course the political landscape may be very different in 4 or 8 years.

In any case, it is worth noting that 56% of those polled picked someone who will be aged 80+ in 2024. There’s not much change in the numbers when comparing national DFA results, but an amateur pundit might see strong enough showings to suggest Yang, Beto or the undeclared Stacey Abrams could be the future of the Party.

More importantly, with Biden entering, what happens if it is a fierce battle and Biden wins. Numbers seem to encourage this likelihood. Will Sanders supporters vote for Biden, or would they see the nomination as stolen, and stay at home or vote against Biden.

I see that as a distinct possibility. Now, is it the same case if the primaries go to Warren, Buttigieg, Booker or Harris? I don’t think so. But I do have a concern that a Biden nomination will tick the Berners off.

Speaking of numbers, I could probably feature a poll about every week, but the fantastic IowaStartingLine’s poll is one that I took notice of.

As we go into June, here is where we stand:

Biden, Sanders 24%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 12%
Harris 10%
O’Rourke 5%
Klobuchar, Yang 2%
Booker, Abrams, Inslee 1%

ISL provides better insight than I could including the fact Warren has the highest favorable rating (78%) and Harris third (70%. Sanders was second). Warren was the candidate Dems were most excited about (54% followed by Biden and Harris) so these two women look to have high ceilings and true contenders to the two men tied for first.

Warren and Harris were 1-2 when it came to being described as the smartest and again when it came to being the toughest. Warren was seen as most honest.

They also suggest Buttigieg still has opportunities as many people haven’t formed a strong opinion of him yet. They also pointed out that while Booker seems to be lost in the field, he does well across categories.

This being a caucus, I am always interested in the aggregate of 1st and 2nd pick choices. This being an instance of 24 candidates, it would seem this might make a better bellwether as well if someone drops out (Please, someone, anyone, please drop out!)

Adding 1s and 2s to give a total of 200%, it looks like this:
Biden 40%
Sanders 38%
Warren 31%
Harris, Buttigieg 25%
O’Rourke 12%
Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 4%
Booker, Yang 3%
Abrams 2%
Gillibrand, Castro, Delaney, Swalwell, Bullock, Ryan 1%

It is interesting to see some names rise up that otherwise have been written off (Klobuchar gets zero press but is a ways ahead of better covered candidates. What does Gabbard’s numbers mean?).

It also should be noted that at a similar time, John Edwards looked to be the leader with Hillary a strong second (though Obama was a strong third, often 5% from the leader). Richardson and Biden could never ever find a way to break up over around 13% in a five person race. With enough tea leaves, you could probably make a case for any of the top 5 candidates, but after that, it might take a leap of faith.

Lastly, I noticed the poll indicated an audience that seems to identify as Liberal and Progressive, strongly anti-Trump, pro-impeachment and strongly on the side of Pelosi and Ocasio-Cortez.

Of note and to bring this full circle 10% of the Dems polled didn’t vote for Hillary. 4% didn’t vote. 3% voted for Gary Johnson 2% voted for Trump and 1% voted for Jill Stein. A repeat of 2016 with 10% of Dems not voting for the nominee will lead to similar results.

Current Music: Jason Lytle- Yours Truly, The Commuter
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1166489.html

One of the funnest stories this cycle has been the Caucus Book Club.

I meant to write about it this when it was first reported in the Register in March.

However, there was some buzz this past weekend when CBS and NPR picked up the story so I figured I better get in on the action

The club’s 583 members have 14 books on their reading list so far. The total assignment tops 3,000 pages, and more tomes are expected as new candidates join the race. The club's plan is to read one book every three weeks.

The initial reading list was arranged in alphabetical order — from Booker to Yang — among the candidates who were running on March 1. That’s when Andrea Phillips of Ankeny, the Iowa Democratic Party’s vice chair, launched the club.

The Register at the time pointed out that the group was starting with Cory Booker (well, there was no Rubin Askew or Bruce Babbitt, so the first name on the list was Joe Biden, who had not announced and thus went to the end of the list). Booker met with the group online and when asked, named James Baldwin’s “Fire Next Time” his favorite book.

It is a pretty fun idea, based on a near-tweet by Phillips. She had read Pete Buttigieg’s book but she wondered if she tweeted about it, would that be considered an endorsement? Would liking Pete be a slight to authors Harris, Sanders and Gillibrand to name three other authors?

In the NPR article, we find out that Julian Castro is a fan of The Godfather (“better than the movie”) and The Exorcist books

Also Attorney/Book Club Member Brad Hopkins likely speaks for many in the NPR article when he says “Weathers getting warmer here and even the most engaged Iowa voter would rather spend some time outside than with his nose in a bunch of books.” Bad news for authors named Warren and Yang

I have a shelf full of the candidate-author book but near all of them have been gifts. Sure, there’s Jim Webb’s History of the Scots-Irish and a few books that I have for the autograph inside. Still, the ‘candidate book’ is generally a template that I have tried to avoid in recent years.

Speaking of Caucus themes, in Ladora (40 miles west of Iowa City), the Caucus Bistro is planned to open up this month, as reported by Iowa Public Radio.

The restaurant it replaces looks excellent (5 stars on both Yelp and TripAdvisor). It looks as even with menu item names like Lame Duck Flatbread, The Incumbent and The Mar-A-Lago club and pics of Jimmy Carter, among others and located in the towns Historic Bank Building. Like its predecessor, it may become destination dining.

Because I am friends with epicureans, I won’t complain, but my idea for the Caucus is something more populist.

I think of Ice Cream places like The Cone Shoppe in Monticello where Joe Biden visited in April or LeMars’s Blue Bunny Parlor, favorite of many candidates including Mike Huckabee and John McCain .

I think of comfort food places where you can get so full you can’t walk for $20 or less like the Machine Shed in Des Moines where Sarah Palin was greeted by “Run Sarah Run” chants in September of 2011 and Rick Santorum drew 150 people in that same year; or The Hamburg Inn near Iowa City, a bipartisan favorite of John Edwards and Chris Christie; or even Hickory Park in Ames, where in 2007, Mitt Romney catered his Straw Poll supporters (the favorite, Romney won the Poll easily, though not the next year’s Caucus).

Of course, the Caucuses have an unofficial restaurant. The pizza buffet chain is closely linked to the Caucus, so much so I suspect it seems a unique news item when it comes up as it has in the Wall Street Journal, the LA Times and the Seattle Times (2011) NPR (2015) the Des Moines Register and Fortune and ABC, CBS & NBC News(2016)

Pizza Ranch is fairly partisan which means you won’t see the usual headline this year, and you’re not likely to see any pictures of Carter (Boone Iowa’s Pizza Ranch renamed their dish “the Santorum Salad” for a time). Though, to be fair Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney have done Pizza Ranch events this cycle. Of course, back in 2015, Ex-Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain wouldn't be caught in one, prefering his usual stomping grounds.

Food does play a part in viral Caucus stories like in 2015 when the Register ran the headline “Huckabee event halts mans trip through Buffet”. This year’s similar story is “An Iowa woman interrupted a Kristen Gillibrand event for ranch dressing”, which is the perfect story for places like Vice and Eater, and Ranch Girl went viral.

The Washington Post reported: In a 17-second video shared on Twitter that had been viewed more than 689,000 times as of early Wednesday, the Iowa native could be seen working her way through the people surrounding the presidential hopeful. But when Gillibrand turned to her, Kinney, much to the delight of the crowd and the Internet, blurted, “Sorry, I’m just trying to get some ranch,” as she quickly disappeared into the throng of people.

Being someone who is only 5-2, I can’t really see over most people, so I was like, I’ll just have to push through,” she said, using a method that combined sliding and wiggling. “I was just a girl on a mission to get some ranch for me and my friends.”

From Bustle: “It’s one of those restaurants that make it homemade, which is very common in Iowa, to be honest. I was going down there to grab it — it’s not just me, a few of my other friends in Bible study enjoy the ranch — because it’s sort of my job in the group.”

For the record, I have had one friend run into Kirsten Gillibrand at a coffee shop and another met Elizabeth Warren at the airport. With 23 or so candidates, you almost can’t not run into one.

The best news story ever written about the Iowa Caucuses though, remains The Onion: Iowa Restaurant Patron Remembers Every Breakfast Ruined by Presidential Candidates

Current Music: Roky Erickson - All that May do My Rhyme
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1163803.html

(All of my 2020 posts are at https://iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/)

Identity.

It’s important. It can get confusing some times. I turn on TruTV to watch March College Basketball, SyFy to watch Pro Wrestling, the History Channel to watch modern day pawn shops, and comedy shows for political comentary.

Still, Blockbuster is out of business because they were a DVD/VHS business, but Netflix thrives because it is a Movie business.

Wait, where am I going with this?

I don't know, but with countless legitimate news services out there and blogs, I know I won't be the definitve word. So, I focus on the small part of the world I have dominion over.

Hmmm..what? Oh, yeah. So, I have a good dozen Des Moines Register articles about recent candidate visits, and believe me there are a lot of candidates and beleive me, they visit a lot.

Still, my focus often tends to be on the weird, so with that in mind, i am not all things for all people. I am here for Teh Funny!

In this case, we are back to Beto O'Rourke, who I have spent a good deal of time. O'Rourke (as his supporters point out) has made three trips to Iowa, held 60 public events and been to 34 of Iowa's vaunted 99 counties. The Beast and Politico like to write articles about how his chances are nil. That may get clicks but as 538.com points out, the Texas caucus being pushed up may render all that moot.

Conventional Wisdom is O'Rourke is someone with a lot of style and not a lot of substance. Still, Conventional Wisdom will say don't count anyone that people are talking about. I don't hear anyone talking about Jay Inslee or Michael Bennet's style or substance.

His talking on top of tables is a meme, and yes, drame, but what is politics but (mostly) scripted drama?

Photo credit: NY Times

So, I don't count him out completely. He was back in Iowa this past week, and as I reported before, O'Rourke is working hard and trying to learn the culture. In Cedar Falls, he's a Panther. In Ames, he's a Cyclone, in Iowa City,he's a Hawkeye, and in Des Moines, he's a Bulldog.

Of course, if you are doing that, you may tend to slip up from time to time. Damned if you do (He's not Iowan), damned if you don't (He's not being Iowan enough).

So, this week, Fox News declared Beto O'Rourke dead as he made that fatal mistake of confusing "Casey's pizza for Breakfast" with "Casey's Breakfast Pizza".

Local news and even Casey's all laughed, with Casey's posting a poll where 89% said there was a difference.

Casey's (based in Ankeny) is a very Iowa (and now Midwestern) thing. It is (as their ads joke) a gas station that sells pizza. In small towns across the Midwest, it might be the only restaurant in town.

It is an Iowa staple. Not cheap, but like Bed Bath and Beyond, if you can't find a discount coupon, you're not trying. It's an unique taste, not quite like the Big 3, but certainly better than the budget guys (Cicis,Little Caesars). It tends not to be as greasy as the big guys, and probably is closest to maybe Godfather's, if I am pushed for a comparison.

All politics are local, and so are restaurants. I eat a lot of Casey's Pizza because the local one is fantastic.

They also are most known for specialty pizzas, especially one of the best versions anyone has of Taco Pizza.

They also have a Breakfast Pizza, not to be confused with Cold Leftover Pizza, but an egg, sausage and bacon pizza, which Beto didn't apparently know about.

What a Breakfast Pizza might look like:

So, there you have it. It ultimately doesn't mean anything, but what a fun story!

Locally, a friend saw Beto this week at a House Party with about 80 in attendance. He said Beto was an exciting speaker. Beto is 6'4", so it's not hard to imagine that you could throw a beard and stovepipe hat andyou could have the last President I could think of, who took the White House based on a losing Congressional Election.

He said Beto obviously gets farming (so Casey's story aside), he does fit in as a Midwesterner quite easily. Beto may not be able to turn back the Five candidates in front of him. Still, he may make quite the Vice President nominee.

Current Music: Dead Kennedys- Give me Convenience
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1162937.html

I have written about election cycles since at least 2004 for about a dozen readers.

This year with the power of twitter, I have literally 100s of people reading my words.

What a country!

Ok, I was a child of the 80s. You have to excuse my lame jokes.

My goal is of course to lean toward the frivolity. I wish I could do more, but I simply don’t have the time, and to be honest, my heart tends to lean towards the fun stories like “Marco Rubio hits a kid in the face with a football”.

In any case, I am hardly an expert, but just due to geographical happenstance, I pick up on some local stories that a nationwide audience misses out on.

So with that said, I read an article last month that will probably be the biggest thing to come out of April 2019. This may have bigger ramifications than even Joe Biden’s announcement to run for President a third time.

I read it in the local alt-newspaper and it has been otherwise under-reported, and surprisingly concerns Andrew Yang.

Yang is a longshot, but I like him. He has devoted fans and though the number is small, it feels like Yang is the future. Like, he is 2 election cycles ahead of the Democratic Party.

You might guess that I am going to talk about Yangs idea to give $1000 a month for a year to an Iowa family to sell people on his Freedom Dividend.

While I like his idea, it does feel like a stunt. It feels like a lotto and a gimmick.
It is certainly unique though and when the book is written on the 2020 Iowa Caucus, it deserves to be in it.

Those who follow things a bit more closely might think if I am talking Yang and I’m not talking about giving out money, then I must be talking about Protesting Penguins.

Apparently, if you don’t think people are paying attention to what Andrew Yang is saying, you’re wrong. Liberal activist Ed Fallon and his group Bold North did.

When asked about climate change, Yang said his priority was to take care of the Economy and Poor Americans and quite frankly, “the penguins can wait in line”

Which upset said penguins who showed up at his campaign stop.

Although this will be one of the most memorable moments of the 2020 Caucus season, I actually was headed elsewhere.

Douglas Burns reported in CityView that Yang’s campaign was “working with a hologram company, and could debut the technology...as early as July”.

The Yang hologram would essentially be interactive in real time, in which CityView only slyly alludes to, but we are starting to get into real Leia-and-Obi-Wan stuff here
7 years on now from Hologram Tupac playing at Coachella, I am surprised we weren’t here already.

In any case, what are the potential repercussions of electronic canvassing for votes.

As an Iowan, it is wonderful that the candidates come to the Hawkeye State and are able to meet the voters. A lady told me she was in a library room with Obama and about 30 other people, and those stories are not uncommon.

But to be honest, the last place someone like Michael Bloomberg or Howard Schultz with all of the money and time in the world would want to be is in Des Moines in December when he could be some place tropical. Joe Biden probably would prefer a golf course in a sunny locale to Cedar Rapids and Californians like Kamala Harris or Eric Swalwell surely would prefer 60 degree weather in March to 6 degree weather.

Shouldn’t our leaders be in Congress, the State House or South Bend? Will virtu-candidates be the wave of the future?

Andrew Yang isn’t quite ready to go full virtual tilt, but he thinks that HoloYang will bring excitement, admitting that Iowans may end up more excited seeing his hologram than the actual him.

Technology is really cool,” Yang said. “When you see the hologram, the whole thing is very fun and invigorating. Certainly when I saw the technology in action, I enjoyed it a great deal. So for folks in Iowa and other places, I think it will just be a fun way to experience it. It might be even more fun than seeing me in person.”

He also reckons even HoloYang May have a short shelf life and promises celebrity co stars.

“We can actually have some pop-culture and other figures appear,” Yang said. “If you’re going to go to all the trouble of having a hologram set up, you might as well have some other people appear and make it more fun and entertaining for people than just coming to see a hologram of me speaking. We would make it fun for people.”

Ironically, it’s not like Iowans don’t have a chance to meet Andrew in person. He already has made 60 campaign stops in Iowa according to the Des Moines Register thus far and still counting.

But are we ready for this Brave New World? Is 3D Donald Trump going to show up in my bathroom when I’m taking a dump? Is Projection Pence popping up in my bedroom all times of the night to make sure no hanky panky or smoking of marijuanas are going on? Only time will tell.

Current Music: Suede- Coming Up
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1161652.html

Last week, I reported on some positive buzz on Kirsten Gillibrand, a candidate that the national media considers dead.

What to do? Well, hangout with Iowans.

So it was to Blazing Saddles, the city’s oldest gay bar to attend a drag show where famously the drinks are always doubles and there’s never a cover.

It’s not noteworthy since Des Moines seems to love its drag shows. In fact, I don’t know many people who haven’t attended one at The Saddle or nearby Garden, and the crowd that goes often tends to be more Conservatives than Liberals.

So it’s a nonstory, except well of course it is. The New York Daily News wasn’t going to miss out on this opportunity for those precious, precious clicks.

On Friday night, Gillibrand wrote on Twitter that she had been invited by “Vana and the amazing queens at the Blazing Saddle for a visit before their show. I felt underdressed, so I brought a dress I picked up yesterday—turns out it fit me, but it fit Vana even better! Thank you for having me, ladies!”

It is kind of a unique story, though, so I will file this away with great Iowa caucus moments like Obama playing bumper cars with his daughters, Rick Perry awkwardly eating a corn dog and Fred Thompson walking around the State Fair in Gucci shoes. There isn’t much to it and it’s probably only coincidental that it happened within 96 hours of Pete Buttigieg’s headline tour of Iowa. I don’t suspect Kirsten would be opportunistically trying to be “more gay than Pete”, but a lesser politician might try that.

In any case, it’s not like she is out arm wrestling Iowa State students who challenged her on twitter.

A crowd of roughly 40 students and Ames residents flocked the patio of Stomping Grounds on Friday evening for a “main event.”

The main event? An arm-wrestling contest on the establishment’s gray table-top between 2020 presidential candidate Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and a 20-year-old Des Moines Community College Student named Olivia Habinck.

“I saw a video of (Gillibrand) lifting weights on Twitter and I tweeted at her and asked if she would like to do an arm-wrestling match,” said Habinck. “It’s a once-and-a-lifetime opportunity, and we as Iowans, don’t take these opportunities to meet and interact with presidential candidates lightly.”

Ok, but that is a genuinely fun move and why not mix some serious talk on climate change with some fun voter bonding.

I mean it’s not like she will be in New Hampshire next Friday night playing beer pong.

“Perks of being a young dem…. playing beer pong with @SenGillibrand and winnnning!” tweeted Shaye Weldon, who shared a photo of New York’s junior senator competing in a bar-top challenge. “This woman is a fierce passionate intelligent woman & an inspiration to young women everywhere.”

The picture suggested the 52-year-old Gillibrand hasn’t been partying too hard with college-age students in New Hampshire — the senator’s cups appeared to be filled with water.

Oh well. There are 21 Democratic candidates and the greatest circus men of all time (P T Barnum, Vince McMahon, Donald Trump) all subscribed to the adage “There’s no such thing as bad publicity”.

Which is a bit of a shame as I like Gillibrand but even these stunts are only being covered in the farthest reaches of political blogs like this one.

Current Music: Jason Lytle- Yours Truly, The Commuter
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1160669.html

New blog post at iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

Go there and see pics!

There does not seem to be anyone with more star power in the race right now than Pete Buttigieg. Granted, I was writing about him in October 2017 which is why you should be following this blog.

As the news reports it, that meet and greet for 50 people turned into a campaign rally for 1600.
Pete Buttigieg seems to be the real deal. He has the energy and idealism of Barack Obama, and that force quickly moved across the audience. The main topic of his speech seemed to be around climate change, a topic other candidates have focused on. He also spent considerable time talking health care and LBGT+ issues, while weaving in personal stories, while his husband and mother stood cheerfully to his right. It was not hard to love those two (and the puggle back home).

Smart, but relatable and personal, he took questions randomly picked from a fish bowl after his speech. It was quite easy to like him as he interacted easily with the crowd. When asked how he would run against Trump, he compared it to Chinese Handcuffs- the more that you extend effort into it, the further into the trap you fall.

He nodded to Iowa’s groundbreaking legalization of gay marriage ten years ago . Telling his coming out story in Governor Pence’s Indiana, he said he couldn’t exactly poll voters to see if they would vote for “Mayor Pete if he was gay.” Buttigieg said his relationship with Pence was “well known”. Pete also contrasted his age and Trump's and took shots at the MAGA slogan.

I don’t want to give too much voice to the protesters who came to disrupt Buttigieg, but it has become one of the headlines. That particular protester was Randall Terry, who has publicly announced that he plans to show up all caucus season at rallies for Buttigieg, Booker and others. Terry is a far-right extremist and opportunist (similar to Fred Phelps). To date, he is most well-known for running against Obama as a Democrat in 2012, so he could get attention in an otherwise uncontested primary election, and trying to buy bizarre graphic ads during the Super Bowl.

The crowd galvanized behind Buttigieg during the incident, but it also showed how well Mayor Pete can speak off the cuff and react quickly to unexpected surroundings.

There were plenty of Pete shirts in the crowd (like Raygun’s “Give Pete a Chance”) and the rest of the crowd appeared won over. As I waited for Pete I speak, I talked to as many Democrats as I could to get a pulse on the current race, but that is a separate post.

It is hard not to compare Pete to Obama, and the buzz is real. I have heard similar things about Cory Booker who came to Iowa on the same day, and whose visit was just nudged or shared in the headlines. For sure, the wolves and MAGArs will come to attack Pete soon, so we still have a ways to go.

Current Music: Roky Erickson - All that May do My Rhyme
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1158171.html

As we look toward another round of a bunch of candidates headed to Iowa including Pete Buttigieg, I thought it was worth mentioning some Beto O’Rourke stuff. O’Rourke announced his candidacy and made a trip to the Hawkeye State. A lot of the national media about O’Rourke is that his star has burned out. A friend who knows says he still sees Beto as a Top 5 candidate. Indeed, if they’re talking about you, then you are still in the conversation. It’s when they stop talking about you.

The excellent Iowa Starting Line has come to the same conclusion and seemed impressed with the young Texan. They shared a story of Beto addressing a crowd of 300 in Waterloo standing on the back of a red pickup truck. This comes off a Politico article that seemed to want to bury Beto, but contains the particular observation of the mayor of Dennison (a town of 8000 in the reddest part of the country). Mayor Beymar saying 80 people showing up in his town a workday is like attratcing a crowd of a thousand.

The Waterloo-Cedar Falls paper covered his Eastern Iowa visit which started with a 60 person meeting where half were media, but hitting Iowa City with Hawkeye gear and sharing anecdotes like his locker being next to local Dave Loebsack in the House Gym. The Iowa City Press Citizen, local Democrat volunteer Karen Cooney has the best insight, comparing Beto to Obama for intelligence and likeability, as opposed tothe party favorites like Gore, Kerry and Hillary. It has also been noted that the red state politics that Beto navigated in Texas are appropriate to conservative-purplish Iowa

The Des Moines Register covered his 12 hour day in the Capital city area with impressed voters who compared him to JFK, 45 minute media-caused delays, references to local baseball and local bars, and at least 100 requests for pictures. Another Register story mentioned the fact he stopped to try Caseys Pizza (a Iowa stand by). As an observer and blogger, I love this stuff, but I realize that I am falling into the trap that I am accusing Politico of. Politico in their piece seemingly ridicule O'Rourke for always wearing the local ball cap or of namedropping the local Democrats. That's nothing to be ashamed of. It is the candidate that thinks those niceties are beow them that are the ones who fall flat.

A few other statements of note that came out of his visits. In Dubuque, he was asked if he would pick a female running mate and he said yes. A Spokane newspaper with some solid 2020 coverage reported, as well as the fact he was dropping a flippant joke about his wife doing all the parenting.

In short, to declare Betomania dead or that he has been a bust seems short-sighted. Does he have the ability to compete with the well-stocked and well-organized Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris? Has his millenial energetic thunder shifted over to Mayor Pete?

Wait... wait.. wait. What am I doing? Analsysis? Insight? This is not what I intend for my blog at all. Let's fix this immediately.

Per the Iowa City Press-Citizen.

"I was in the bathroom, minding my own business and I was washing my hands," said Matthew Rowland, a University of Iowa student. "And this guy asked me how it was going, and I said good, 'How's it going,' going for some small talk.

Rowland asked, "Are you here to see Beto?"

He said Beto O'Rourke looked up at him with a grin and said, "That's me."

(Photo via New York Times)

Current Music: Parquet Courts - Wide Awake
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1157694.html

As always, follow my political blog at iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

Take a look at any poll (or the wikipedia page) and you may notice a lot of Democrats are running for President.

Seemingly, the only people not running on the Democrat side is Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Jeff Merkley (who made his decision after Bernie Sanders announced his run. I can't help but think that was not coincidental).

As far as serious contenders go, I count 15. Indeed, there are a good 5-10 potential candidates who may still throw their hat in the ring.

That's quite a few.

The Des Moines Register put the issue on the front page.

Included was:

- A quote from Mitch Henry from the Asian & Latino Coalition - "..when you're approaching 20 (candidates), we don't have the people power, the resources continually do this week in and week out"

-The 14 candidates recognized by the Register have made 200 appearances in Iowa since January 1 (comparable to about 90 events in the same time frame in 2011 and 2015, the similar time frame of previous cycles)

-Polk County (Des Moines) Democrats were worried that inviting only a handful of candidates to upcoming events would look like favoritism, and so decided not

Woodbury County (Sioux City) has embraced it. Chairman Jeremy Dumkrieger said it was "more fun... than it is a burden", saying they might get 10 calls from candidates in a day, and threw together an event for Bill DeBlasio on 48 hour notice, and handling two events in one day (Tim Ryan and Amy Klobuchar)

The Register also caught a story I had seen a few weeks ago (which is another reason I need to post more timely)- the story of Eric Giddens in Senate District 30.

While it is a long tradition that national politicians might get involved in local elections, this being an odd numbered year, there is only one election going on. Democrat Giddens, in a weekend, got campaign rallies or canvassing from Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, John Delaney and Cory Booker. Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Yang, and Steve Bullock also helped out in this unusual situation for a Cedar Rapids school board member being in demand which went headline on Politico.

I end this week's roundup with coverage on the Heartland Forum, which ran this weekend in Storm Lake (a northwestern Iowa town of 10,000 that voted 64% for Trump). The focus was on rural America, and was moderated by someone who has become important in his own right,Storm Lake Times editor and Pulitzer Prize winner Art Cullen.

Cullen put feet to fire on mental health care issues, population decline, immigration, foreign ownership of farmland and Big Agriculture to Warren, Delaney, Klobuchar, Tim Ryan and Julian Castro.

The Register reported that Castro spoke about suicide prevention (which is higher among agricultural workers than any other occupation). Ryan spoke about logical gun control "saying that as someone who hunts". Klobuchar spoke of strengthening rural America through the Farm Bill, including bringing broadband to every home in America. Warren spoke of reducing student loan debt so young adults could stay and live in their small towns. Delaney spoke on pushing immigration reform to create a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants.

It was Cullen's witty ire (as captured by the Register and NPR) for those not attending, that is the real story.

-Bernie Sanders wants to break up big farm conglomerates, but "Why isn't he here? I'm dead serious about that. If he cares about Rural issues, then why isn't he here?'

-Beto O'Rourke sent a recorded video and had just toured 13 Iowa counties but "He has time to dance with Oprah, but he doesn't have time for the Iowa Farmers Union. That pisses me off... excuse me, it disappoints me".

-As far as Joe Biden- "He's trying to make up his mind. Well, why doesn't he come and make up his mind with a bunch of Farmers Union members in Storm Lake. They'' help him make his mind real good."

Current Music: Sonic Youth - Daydream Nation
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1155855.html

See the rest of my 2020 coverage at iowaguy2020.blogspot.com

Too much going in my life and too much going on in the race to be of much value, but still I try. So here's a few takes.

Pete Buttigieg- See that's why I want to blog, because I saw Pete's star was about to rise and I would love to have documented that. Three weeks ago, he visited Eastern Iowa, and it was clear from papers like the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Cedar Rapids Gazette that he was connecting. His strength being as a mayor, he actually had been an administrator. It's a strength that may be an unexpected advantage. It is also clear that as a millennial, he is connecting across all sort of demographics. Also, he is a Midwesterner.

Since, I didn't get it down in print, let me just add, an Emerson College poll made worldwide news as Buttigieg finished in 3rd place in Iowa polling, behing stalwarts Biden and Sanders, inching out Kamala Harris. Buttgieg is the new Beto and I wish I had it on record that I was one of the first to see that coming.

Jay Inslee- I am not sure how much momentum the Washington Governor has, but I will give him credit for two things. 1) He has started to run TV ads, something I have only seen John Delaney do this cycle. Inslee needs name recognition in a crowded race. 2) He is running as a "climate" candidate. Again, crowded field. You have to give an angle for Iowans to remember you by. I can't jump to conclusions yet, but it's a good plan.

Cory Booker- Cory has hit local TV and quite simply, he is a rock star. I don't think any serious discussion should count him out. Of note, he was the first candidate to get an endorsement. In this case, Iowa City-area state legislator Amy Nielsen. Two friends of mine have seen him and the charisma is real. Cory made reference to his great great grandmother who moved from Alabama to Buxton, Iowa. Buxton was a coal mining town known for the way it treated black miners and thrived from 1900-1925. Buxton is an interesting lost history which Booker referenced- a variety of Eastern European, Western European and African heritages, community quilting bees, and when miners died, instead of attending the funerals, all would donate their wages to the mourning family. (Worth look at LostBuxton.com and Rachelle Case's Creating the Black Utopia book)

Julian Castro- Castro is touring the state and I have seen some buzz. His poll numbers have been minimal, but I could see him surge. He is one of five Dems headed to Northwest Iowa for an Ag Forum along with John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Tim Ryan. I like that Castro is going to small town Iowa, and the press seems to show people are receptive. He seems to be well received by Latino democrats, as well as resonating with Medicare for All and Gun Control. Castro is a blip, but like Buttigieg, I look for him to explode.

Kamala Harris - Harris is still on my short list of candidates who matter. She gets the nod for the first candidate to have to cancel an event due to weather. This is no slight to Harris, as we had one of the worst winters in terms of both snow and wind chill than we have had in ages. Harris has been able to pick up an experienced staff and as setting up meetings to explain the complicated caucus process to young and new voters. I like that she is organized, and think she is essential in any conversation for the 2020.

Elizabeth Warren - Warren was put feet to fire to make an oath not to attack another Dem in this process. I am a big fan of Reagan's 11th commandment and glad to see that. Counterpoint: The 2008 Dem and 2016 GOP primaries were bloodbaths verbally, and they hardened their candidates to perfect oral competitors. The headlines of her trip this week were to abolish the Electoral College and that Joe Biden needs to address the allegations about inappropriate campaign behavior. Lost in that message was tough words for the corporate community including local stalwarts Wells Fargo who surely everyone in Iowa has an opinion about, though that opinion might be colored by their recent "Too Big to Fail" attitude and bumbling behaviors.

Bernie Sanders- Bernie made it to Iowa and his four appearances all led up with opening musical acts. Sanders famously appeared with Vampire Weekend last cycle and hit an attendance of near 5000. The Sanders platform of 2016 (decried as it was) will undoubtedly be the platform of whoever the Dems run in 2020. Bernie's most recent swing took stabs at Big Agri-Business. It's an interesting play in Iowa where Ag is King. Specifically, he took aim at Smithfield as an example of CEOs making money off of someone else's hard work. He criticized the Monsanto-Bayer merger which takes over the seed corn market. I like Bernie's populist approach, though I don't know if farmers will embrace it en masse. Still, arguing that family farms are hurt by large factory farming and that 10% of farms get 77% of all subsidies is a good drum to beat,

Tulsi Gabbard- Ok, Tulsi isn't going to win, because Dems I know don't particularly like here, and her seemingly pro-Trump, anti-Mueller tweets this week won't move that needle. Still, she has made headlines and stayed in the press. The path I see to her based on her most famous stances (anti-war, anti-intervention, legalizing sex work, and decriminalizing marijuana) might be as a Libertarian. I am not the first to make the notion that she probably has more in common with Ron Paul than her potential nominee pals.

Seth Moulton- The campaign does not need another candidate, but he headed to Iowa this week. I heard him on Conservative local radio this week, and he more than held his own against a hostile audience. Moulton, a US Representative from Massachusetts served in the Marines, so he can poke against MAGA barbs. He was one of the Congressmen who opposed Nancy Pelosi being Speaker again and has made previous Iowa visits. I think he could be one to watch as Dems turn away from too-familiar faces.

Small (and not so Small) town Iowa- My town isn't a small one, but it has had 1 potential candidates visit here, and we are still a year out. Castro, Warren, Buttgieg, Marianne Williamson, Harris and Delaney visited, sometimes more than once while potential names like Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, Jeff Merkley and Michael Bloomberg also appeared and Sanders surrogate (Future Star?) Caifornia congressman Ro Khanna. A Western Iowa town of 10,000 where family comes from has seen 7- Frequent travellers Williamson, Delaney, and Castro, with Eric Swalwell, Andrew Yang, John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock have made it to the Red side of the state.

Spaghetti and Chilli - Iowa Starting Line covered this but while Republicans hit Pizza Ranch and motorcycle rides, Dems have their own fundraiser ideas. In this case, there were three big Dinner events in February which allowed some of the lesser known candidates to connect with Iowans, and help them against the big name appeal of Biden and Bernie. Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney were at two of these events, and though long shots, both will be rewarded by their Iowa work. Swalwell, Hickenlooper, Castro and Harris all made one of these events, which shows some recognition of the importance of the process. The rewards will remain to be seen.

Still, a lot of info to take in and each day is a new headline. I probably won't be able to be as timely as I like, and my insight may turn out to end up being more about gut and buzz. Still ,expect me to weigh in from time to time.

Current Music: Mitski - Be the Cowboy
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1154803.html

(Crossposted at iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/)

With so many candidates, I have given up hope of adding any particular timing insight to the Presidential Race.

Still, I will try my best.

On Sunday, the Des Moines Register updated their poll some three months or so since the first one. Now, we know most everyone is running. Bernie Sanders has made it official. Beto O'Rourke will be in Iowa this week and it looks like he will likely jump in as well.

It is a fantastic poll but I give the Register a few deductions.

For starters, as with last time, Joe Biden is still in the lead. Joe isn't officially running, so I think it would have been worthwhile to do polls including, but also excluding him. In the extra commentary, the Register does indicate that Biden's supporters shift to Bernie (maybe obvious, maybe not) and so the results kind of stand. In any case, if he doesn't run, I feel this is meaningless. Joe did drop 5 points, so I guess there was some disbursement,

The other deduction is because the Sunday paper has no mention of the GOP. As with last time, this was covered online (and maybe through the week, I don't know) and I feel it should have been included. The Register online article echoes the last results and ran under a shocking banner that 40% of Iowa Republicans want to see more than a one person race. That said, 80% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump, so it seems a nonstarter. As far as any competition. Kasich and Howard Schultz have some nominal support, but nothing that stands out.

In any case, here are your current 2020 Iowa Democratic Poll Results

Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Beto O'Rourke 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Cory Booker 3%
Michael Bennet 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Steve Bullock 1%

Nothing particularly stands out, with one exception, Beto O'Rourke falling from 11%, and it would appear at a glance, that is support added to Bernie.

Yes, there are some changes around the 1% crowd, but none of that is particularly of interest. The only thing that stands out to me is Mike Bloomberg came in at 3% last time, and did not register.

Second choices are important in the caucus, so we always run the numbers on 1st and 2nd preference and total them.

Joe Biden 46%
Bernie Sanders 38%
Elizabeth Warren 21%
Kamala Harris 18%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Cory Booker 6%
Julian Castro 3%
Michael Bennet 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Jay Inslee 1%
John Delaney 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%

Nothing really insightful here, as the order remains the same. Julian Castro starts to break through a bit over his peers, as does Tulsi Gabbard, but again, the numbers are so very low at this point.

of note, 10% of Democrats are still unsure, and that is enough for a momentum swing.

A few other questions that they threw out include 21% of Democrats say that they will be dissatisfied with a nominee who is a straight white man, while 40% of Democrats weren't sure.

The same question was asked about the eventual nominee being someone who thinks the country should "be more socialist". 56% would be satisfied, while 33% would be dissatisfied, and 11% saying "very dissatisfied".

Healthcare was the big issue with 84% of Democrats supporting some sort of "Medicare for All". 80% of Dems think Climate Change should be talked about "a lot", with 65% supporting the Green New Deal in full.

Impeachment talk got minimal response. 22% said they felt it should be talked about alot.

Taxes on the Wealthy were a big hit with Dems as well, getting 89% of some kind of support.

Bernie does better than the field among those who are younger in age and do not ascribe to a particular religion. No real surprise there, probably.

An easy conclusion would be that Bernie has momentum, but it can also be around the recent announcement to run. Jumping 19% to 25% is significant, and he is within striking distance of Biden (something that couldn't have been said in December). He also has put significant distance ahead of Warren and O'Rourke.

That said, pundits think Biden would run, and about two-thirds of Dems want to see him run (one third thinking he has waited too long), and if he does, then we really have a race. For now, we might be waiting for Joe.

Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1151863.html

I have blogged the last four elections, and there is no reason for me to sit this one out.

That said, time constraints have hampered me, and after doing this long enough, I don't want to write something that has already been said, and no doubt I am trying to be timely, but I can't be trusted for that.

So, you're going to get February, much like the month's winter weather, in a few short dense blasts.

For starters, everyone who was on the list of potential candidates is probably running. It usually doesn't work like that, and most will not make it that far, but that is our current state.

Bernie Sanders's announcement is a big one. I compare Bernie to Ron Paul, who has a loyal, committed audience. The Democrats have generally been the party for new blood. Obama, Clinton and Carter are examples of that, whereas Mondale, Hillary and Gore failed.

I don't know if Sanders will fall in that regard, or if he will have new life in his campaign. In any case, it's probably bad news for candidate Tulsi Gabbard and potential candidate Jeff Merkley who ostensibly were running for Sanders voters.

Kirsten Gillibrand made it to Iowa and made her announcement and participated in the Women's March, while the Register focused on the crowd's P*ssy Hats, and that she carried a notebook where she wrote down questions from Iowans- the voters interviewed seemed to be approving but non-committal.

Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (who thanks to the Super Bowl, isn't even the most famous person named Michael Bennett) made it to Iowa to sum up a possible run. It was enough to get some press in the Register.

In a crowded field, Bennet is making education his focus. Speaking in crowds of 75 and 60, he seemed to be well received. Universal childcare is part of his plan. He was Superintendent of the Denver Public School System, whose success he touts, before being named to the Senate. He was also Chief of Staff under former Governor John Hickenlooper (who is also likely running for President. Awkward!)

A name I haven't mentioned is Marianne Williamson. A friend of mine attended one of her events. Williamson has written 13 books about spirituality and was a prominent guest and friend of Oprah. In an election cycle, where anything is possible (even Oprah's name gets bandied about), I take Williamson seriously. Besides heading her own self-help guru empire, she is an activist for many liberal causes. I asked my friend if it was possible that she was interested in some Jill Stein maverick 3rd party movement, but he said she is very interested in change as part of the Democratic Party.

Long on names and visits, the 2020 campaign has been short on the type of anecdotes that I write about. For now, the biggest moment has been Elizabeth Warren's first day on the campaign trail back in January in Sioux City.

Warren, certainly on the shortlist of front runners, was asked the question we all were dying to know. Why did she take that DNA test and isn't that just encouraging Donald Trump to bully others. Warren said she was going to put everything out for the public, and that Trump is going to Trump, before moving on to a message about fighting for families.

Warren is very much in mind when looking at this month's Emerson College poll which pits her against Donald Trump.

The poll of Iowans one year before caucus shows Trump beating Warren 52-48%. This is not much different than Sanders who falls in a nearly 50/50 split to the President. It is also better than the other names paired- Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris, followed by Gillibrand, followed by Sherrod Brown and a hypothetical Nancy Pelosi.

It also brings to bear the spector of Howard Schultz. The CEO of Starbucks weighed in during January about a possible third party run, much to the consternation of Democrats everywhere.

A possible Trump-Warren-Schultz race falls at a 49-40-11 run, showing Schultz does draw considerably more from Democrats than he does from Trump.

Of course, the big news is that there is one name who beats Trump head-to-head and he seemingly is the only person not running. Joe Biden wins 51-49 in that head to head matchup.

Indeed, Biden has such a lead over Democrats, that a Biden-less race is surely wide open.

The preference poll of Dems looks like:

Biden 29%
Harris 18%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
O'Rourke 6%
Booker 4%
Brown 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Castro 2%
Delaney 1%
Gillibrand 1%

Still 8% with preferences elsewhere, so large shifts still possible.

86% of Democrats said they are looking for someone who will reach across the aisle to get things done- making this quality the top in that category.

Democrats had strong opinions on border security funding, a ban on assault weapons, Medicare for all, and an increase of the Minimum Wage to $15. All issues that ran counter to the"average Iowan".

Of interest, 33% of Iowans said that no one is ever "too old" to run for President, but 54% said that 70 is too old, which is interesting, given that Trump, Warren, Biden and Sanders are (or in the case of Warren, will be shortly) in their 70s. When broken out, the Dems skewed slightly more towards the younger candidates.

As always to be continued at http://iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

Current Music: Bad Religion - Stranger than Fiction
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1149667.html

Crossposted at Iowaguy2020.blogspot.com/

In December, I spoke of the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN poll of probable Democratic caucus goers.

It was, of course, a front page feature in the Sunday Register.

It should be noted though that they did the same thing for Republicans. In the midst of a bunch of stories that the GOP doesn’t plan on making things too hard on President Trump, there are also certainly whispers on a possible primary challenge.

(Flake and Corker or possibly Corker and Flake)

Whether those are just whispers, we don’t know. This survey took place December 10-13 so it was a time when US Senator Jeff Flake from Arizona looked to be a possible challenger.

As January ends, Flake seems to be headed to a job at CBS instead of a run. In the meantime, Maryland governor Larry Hogan has become the buzz possible candidate. The GOP race isn’t far off Democratic minds as well. While in Iowa, ostensible candidate John Hickenlooper had to deny rumors he was going to be a John Kasich’s running mate in 2020.

The poll features a focus on Trump and opinions on prominent Iowa Republicans. Trump scored strongly with a 77% favorable rating (and an *ahem* unimpeachable 49% very favorable rating) with an 18% unfavorable rating.

It should be noted that Dubya polls better (87/9) as do most state politicians, but Trump towers over any possible competition like Ted Cruz (68/20), Mitt Romney (65/21) and Marco Rubio (63/18).
Nikki Haley trails a bit but her numbers may be more impressive (52/6).

Those who have made the biggest noise fell to the bottom- John Kasich (31/26), Ben Sasse (24/11), Jeff Flake (16/27), and Bob Corker (15/13).

Still, there may be room for a run and Iowa Republicans feel that is healthy (63% said Iowa encourage challengers vs 26% against).

81% approve of Trump’s job, with 14% disapproving. 67% of Iowa Republicans are definitely voting for Trump in 2020, though noteworthy, 19% would consider someone else and 10% said they were not going to vote from Trump.

Republicans said sending troops to the Mexico border and naming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court were his biggest accomplishments while his Twitter messages easily his biggest mistake (72% calling it a negative).

Although Iowan Republicans vow more allegiance to The Party to The Man (43-37), they blame The Party in Congress for 2018 defeats (54-24).

Looking forward, the essential traits that Iowa Republicans look for are leaders with strong moral compasses and a person who will tell the truth even if they don’t agree (Iowa Dems say the same thing. Here may be a clue while someone perceived as a blunt speaker won beyond expectations).
Marco Rubio looked to be in the position for 2024 when Iowa Republicans we’re asked if they would ever/never support the person for President (59/30).

Mitt Romney (53/37) and Nikki Haley (46/21) had big positives and negatives. Trump detractors suffered. Kasich (31/39), Sasse (21/31), Flake (14/47) and Corker (11/40) all had low positives and high negatives.

Current Music: Grandaddy - The Sophtware Slump
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1146851.html

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann made news in November when he said essentially we are looking forward to seeing everyone at the Caucuses, and you can support any candidate that you want as long as it's Trump.

Kauffman's quotes over the last couple of years include "We love Donald Trump! And if you don't love him (Ben Sasse), I'd suggest you stay on your side of the Missouri River." and "Quite frankly, if Iowa wants to retain our first-in-the-nation caucus status we can't have people wandering off and supporting all these other fringe candidates." It's clear the chairman who has said he's 1000% behind Trump isn't looking for competition. However, even in November, he stopped short of cancelling the Straw Poll.

Now, that California has made it known that they are holding a primary in March of 2020, all bets are off. Iowa is fiercely proud of it's first-in-the-nation status, and it is something that may even trump Trump.

Kaufmann says he plans to hold the caucus, and everyone will be welcome, which doesn't seem controversial, but where South Carolina looks like they might cancel their primary to avoid inter-party conflict and make the path clear for Trump.

To be fair, the caucus should be an easy trot for Trump. 67% of Iowan Republicans said they would "definitely support" Trump. Still, there is no doubt, there could be drama. 29% of Iowan Republicans say they would be open to another candidate.

Iowa did skip caucuses for incumbents Bush 41 and 43 in 1992 and 2004, though of course, it didn't stop Pat Buchanan's insurgency in the end.

Also, Trump feels securely in Trump's column, but Ted Cruz actually won the caucus, and though it wasn't enough to save him, Marco Rubio's third place was nearly identical to Trump's second.

Indeed, there are a few names that keep popping up- Ben Sasse, John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Ted Cruz- not to mention wild cards like Evan McMullin, Mark Cuban, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney and I keep telling you this, James Mattis.

Will Iowa be a battleground? We will see.

While I am here, it seems relevant to include some thoughts that were posted by the Des Moines Register at Bush 41's passing. George HW Bush was not a favorite to win the 1980 nomination. That said, he followed Carter's 76 strategy and toured the state relentlessly, visiting all 99 counties.

Bush made 31 visits while favorite Ronald Reagan took a win for granted. Bush won Iowa's caucus that year - by about 2000 votes (2 percent). This set up Bush as a serious force for moderate Republicans, and was a factor in him ultimately becoming Vice President.

Current Music: Suede- The Blue Hour
Crossposts: https://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1139622.html

It's been two months since my last blog post about the election. We had just seen a flurry of potential candidates make trips to Iowa. Since then, Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have visited, because when you are the 11th richest person in the world and have billions of dollars, time and means, there's no place you want to be in December than Iowa.

A younger blogger me would have wrote posts about these visits, but let's be fair, there's a lot of candidates and a long ways to go. The Register lists 20 possible candidates, and that looks to be a good working number, but feels infinitely expanding. (I suspect 20 was arbitrarily selected as there is no Martin O'Malley, Terry McAullife, or Sheryl Sandberg to name but a few).

The Register last week ran a front page story about the 50 Most Influential Democrats in the states, which seemed rather pointless (particularly at this point in the cycle), but goes to show the Caucuses aren't just the Register's Super Bowl, it's the entire football season.

The Register Poll is the most respected barometer of the Presidential race, though like the weatherman's predictions, no one remembers what they said the day before, only what actually happened.

When we last met, I reported on Iowa StartingLine's poll, and the Register isn't that much different. Still, we have the addition of Bloomberg, the rise of Beto O'Rourke, and though it has little effect on the numbers, we have seen the end of Michael Avenatti's bid for the White House. I don't know that I would have ever supported Avenatti, but as a blogger, this feels like a big blow. An Avenatti campaign would have been tremendous.

So here we go. Who do Democrats want to be their candidate?

Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%

The results are a near mirror of the IowaStartingLine Poll, with Sanders having a significant gain to a comfortable second place. It also shows Biden with a nice sized lead, and introduces a few new contenders, and lost momentum for John Delaney and Kirsten Gillibrand.

Of course, the nature of the caucuses, it is important to poll both first choices and second choices. The Register reports this as an aggregate score, and in theory, should be as insightful as a straight preference poll.

Joe Biden 50%
Bernie Sanders 33%
Beto O'Rourke 23%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Kamala Harris 11%
Cory Booker 11%
Michael Bloomberg 6%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Sherrod Brown 3%
John Hickenlooper 2%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Eric Holder 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Tom Steyer 1%
Eric Swalwell 1%
Andrew Yang 1%

A three-tier field emerges now, but also some more obscure names also start to emerge. Is there a future star hiding in there?

Favorable ratings seem important in case this comes down to a head-to-head race. Four Democrats boast Favorable ratings of 50% or more

Joe Biden 82%
Bernie Sanders 74%
Elizabeth Warren 64%
Beto O'Rourke 53%

Those least favorable

Hillary Clinton 49%
Michael Blomberg 31%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Elizabeth Warren 20%

If you do Positive minus Negative

Biden +67%
Sanders +52%
Warren +44%
O'Rourke +42%
Harris +39%
Booker +37%
Klobuchar +30%
Gillibrand +29%
Holder +26%

Harris and Booker seem to be neck and neck in all categories, but Booker's negatives put Harris over. Meanwhile, Klobuchar is still not well known but has less negatives than her peers.

As far as those who aren't running, the Register polled Dems and found Hillary (72%), Oprah, and Howard Schultz (both 55%) would detract from the race. 40% of Dems think Oprah would add to the race, and an amazing 25% think Hillary would add. Michelle Obama fares best of all (76% said would add, 22% said would distract).

It is shocking to me the Dems prefer a Seasoned Hand to a newcomer by a 49%-36% margin. I do like Warren, Sanders and Biden, but I hate to see the Dems become a party of 'next one up' which leads to Dole, McCain and Romney. Ronald Reagan was 73 in 1984. Sanders would be 79, Warren 71 and Biden 78 in 2020.

In any case, I have mentioned before these polls are useless. If you don't believe me, check 538's article on Edwards, Hillary and Giuliani (and nonstarters like Hart and Gore).

To wrap up, the greatest attribute the Dems are looking for is "A Person who will tell the truth, even if I don't agree" (93%) even more so someone who will restore relationships with longtime US allies (90%), a person with a strong moral compass (90%); or even a policy wonk (87%), a Uniter (89%) or someone who represents the future Democratic Party (81%)