bedsitter23

I am a couple of weeks behind, but wanted to focus a bit on the Des Moines Register's latest poll.

It's an in-depth look at where Iowan's minds are at. Iowa might not pick the President (and looking at how well people like Santorum and Huckabee perform, Iowa might not be a good judge at all) but a good finish in Iowa is generally needed.

Of note, this poll takes place after some of Ben Carson's outlandish quotes, but before we found Ben Carson loves him some Ben Carson. Donald Trump and 2020 frontrunner Kanye West have egos, but do they have their picture painted with Jesus prominently displayed. Well, they probably do, especially Kanye, but we got a glimpse at Ben Carson, the egomaniac this week.

Also, for the first time, I saw some Conservatives not too pleased with Ben's show of ego or his comments about the Army. Conventional Wisdom says the GOP will always go back to the establishment candidate. Professor Andrew Green said that in a Register article the same day this poll was released, but I have heard the same from friends who follow such things. So they may love Buchanan, but they will pick Dole. They may appear as if they will back Cain, but they will ultimately select Romney.

So, all of this makes a Rubio nomination seem like a certain thing. I have to admit I can't really see anything else happening. Still, at least for a point in time around Halloween, the most popular choice was Carson. Let's look at that poll

Carson 28%
Trump 19%
Cruz 10%
Rubio 9%
Bush 5%
Paul 5%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 3%
Santorum 2%
Kasich 2%
Jindal 2%
Christie 1%

Winners:
Carson - up 10% in polls.
Cruz- up in the polls, but clearly a fan of the far right and tea party, doesn't do well with moderates
Rubio- up in the polls, with Carson had low numbers in the "Who should drop out" poll

Losers
Trump- down 4 points, but has a more committed following than Carson, also a large number of pollees aren't sure that he is a Christian
Huckabee- down in the polls and favorability rankings
John Kasich- unfavorability rating is rocketing, one-third of those polled would never vote for him
Pataki- drop in favorability

Mixed bag
Bush- favorability is up to 50% and is strong with people who identify as Republicans, his family doesn't seem to hurt him, but he is down and many people want him to drop out

Paul-favorability is up but still below 45% when it was once in the 60s
Fiorina- down from 5% to 4%, both her favorability and unfavorability marks are up
Santorum- up from 1% to 2%, though a large group polled say they would never vote for him
Jindal- picking up strong support as a second choice, but his favorability os down
Chritie- down from 2% to 1%- his favorability is up a big 10 points but it still only 39%

Selzer score
Because of the Iowa caucus system, this # factors in second choices, as well as gives negative points for those candidates you would never, ever vote for

Carson 95.5
Trump 64.5
Rubio 56.5
Cruz 53.5
Fiorina 48
Jindal 39.5
Bush 39
Paul 35.5
Santorum 31.5
Christie 26.5
Kasich 24

Who should quit?
Trump 25%
Bush 22%
Graham 22%
Pataki 21%
Christie 19%

Favorability
Carson 84%
Rubio 70%
Fiorina 66%
Cruz 61%
Huckabee 61%
Trump 59%
Jindal 57%
Santorum 51%
Bush 50%
Paul 43%
Christie 39%
Kasich 31%

Which is a bigger risk for the country- an inexperienced President who has never held office (31%) or same sort of person like past Presidents who will continue to do things the same way they have always been done (60%)

Bush's family ties
Bad 47%
Good 42%

Would a Muslim President be acceptable
69% Unacceptable
25% Acceptable

Attractive qualities for likely GOP caucusgoers about Ben Carson
1-Approaches issues with common sense (70%)
2-Guided by faith in God (62%)
3-SaysObamacare was worse things since slavery (57%)
4-Inspirational personal story (51%)
5- Says Hitler would not have been as successful if people had been armed (50%)
6-Successful neurosurgeon (48%)
7-Not career politican (43%)