2016 Election Starts Now: Not quite "Free Helicopter Rides for Kids"

[bedsitter23]

In a normal election cycle, i would be talking about the Iowa State Fair and some of the more unusual aspects.

Still, when Donald Trump is there with free helicopter rides and telling kids that he's Batman, well, that's your lead,

Ok, well, now I am sold. 

If you think I am joking about Trump, consider this.  If you told me there was a candidate who had donated money to Hillary and Harry Reid, rips on Lindsay Graham, and says we should spend money repairing infrastructure, I would have been all in. 

So, obviously, nothing tops that.

Not even the annual Butter Sculpture- which this year, is a tribute to Monopoly.



Butter Mr Moneybags picture courtesy of the local NBC affiliate WHO-TV which also is keeping track of the Cast Your Kernel poll.

I love the Cast Your Kernel poll, which is a totally unscientific poll in which everyone gets a corn kernel and puts it in the jar of their favorite candidate.

There's a few things that keep this from being a scientific barometer, and I think Daily Kos captured most of them.

It's terribly unscientific, because there's not much control - while kids can't "vote", it's not like they're checking ID's for ages, and of course someone could come back back a couple of hours later and probably vote again if they had a mind to with a decent chance they wouldn't be recognized.

It's also of course limited to people attending the Fair who happen to pass the booth on the Concourse and are interested enough to take a moment to vote, and there are no controls on whether one is actually a likely or even a registered voter.  And finally, the jars are clear glass, so it's easy to see what candidates are getting the most kernels, which might influence people on their vote ("follow the herd" and vote for the one with the most votes, or be a contrarian and drop a kernel in a jar with only a couple in it).  Also, it's not like a private ballot, so a person might drop a kernel for a candidate even if they don't care for them just to keep the peace with the father-in-law watching them vote.

With the fair moving towards its end on the 23rd, here are the results so far:

GOP 68%
Dems 32%

The Donkeys:
Clinton 56%
Sanders 38%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 1%
Chafee 1%

Which I suppose is what to expect.  Martin O'Malley has done the most to distance himself from the other '3rd choices' but clearly has a way to go.

The Elephants:
Trump 34%
Carson 20%
Fiorina 9%
Bush 6%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Walker 4%
Jindal 4%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Christie 2%
Santorum 1%
Perry 1%
Graham/Gilmore/Pataki 0%

So, the Trump momentum is real.  I also feel there is certainly a buzz around Carson and Fiorina, so I am not surprised.  Still, it's telling that the two-thirds of the vote (and the top 3 places) are going to non-politicians.  Indeed, Congressmen seem to fare the worst.

I am not surprised, but it was only a few weeks ago that this was Scott Walker's race to lose.  I am not surprised by any of this, outside of Walker's 4%.

There was Trump's rocket rise and the debate surely boosted Fiorina and Kasich.  One wonders if Walker sounded good on paper, but after seeing him and finding out that he looks like Chris Parnell with a bald spot, maybe he looks less desirable.

Indeed, it's too soon to say, and he will have moments like today where he was heckled at the Fair Soapbox that will define him or destroy him.

Of course, before we swear Trump into office, we do have the benefit of perspective, so let's talk the 2011 State Fair.  I remember that Fair quite well, as it was the one where I saw Sarah Palin among others.

I remember that time quite well, and that was the height of Perry-mania.  Right now, Perry has a less chance of being President than fellow Texan Kinky Friedman but at that moment- August 2011- there was no one more popular.  He announced his candidacy shortly afterwards, and as we know, it was downhill from there. 

In any case, for perspective, your 2011 results:

Bachmann 26%
Perry 23%
Paul 15%
Romney 15% (the guy we thought had won the caucuses when we went to bed on Jan 3)
Palin 6%
Cain 5%
Santorum 3% (the guy who actually won)

Going back even further to the last time Hillary ran, she was also in the lead

2007
Clinton 33%, Edwards 28%, Obama 22%
Romney 36% Huckabee (the caucus winner) 17%

So we still got quite a ways to go.