bedsitter23 | Entries tagged with 2016 election starts now

I haven't spent a lot of time doing what I do ~~best~~ most which is talking Political Campaign.

That said we have enough announced candidates, said announced candidates are making weekly visits to Iowa, and we even have billboards (Ben Carson) and PAC tv ads (A Global Warming group hitting hard against Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, while anti-NSA ads have done the impossible and got the ACLU and Tea Party to team up)

Which brings us to the May 2015 Qunnipac College Poll. There are many polls that will come out, but I like the Qunnipac poll about the best. The reason why is because it reminds me of those College statistics classes. It reminds me of the College Stat class that would cause you to change your major just so you wouldn't have to take that class.

But for politics, I love the detail.

let's get our hands dirty in the numbers.

Iowa GOP Caucus Poll

Walker 21%
Rubio 13%
Paul 13%
Cruz 12%
Huckabee 11%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Christie 3%
Perry 3%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%

So let's talk.

QU last polled in February, so we can talk trends. in that poll, Walker had 25% and looked to have no competition. Bush was at 10% which seemed like he might be the biggest competition, though others did poll better. Paul was at 13% , Carson was at 11%, and Huckabee was at 11%

It is interesting to note that Bush has all but dropped out of the Top tier. Yet, those in the Top tier did not thing to do to move their numbers. The real gainers seem to be Cruz and Rubio. While I feel Carson has momentum, the number seem to say the opposite.

What the QU poll does best is go beyond the numbers, and here is what that says: Walker and Cruz are far away the faves of the Tea Party (both poll 26% in that group, Paul trails with 11%). Walker is the favorite among Evangelicals (18%), but Cruz also does better than expected here trailing Huckabee by one percent (17%, 16%). As we move towards Moderate and Liberal (they still exist?) Republicans, Perry and Paul do well.

Because the Caucus is such a weird exercise, it's second choices that are important.

Again, Cruz and Rubio unexpectedly (to me) emerge as real contenders.

Rubio 15%
Walker 13%
Cruz 10%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%

Again, this is a spot in February, where Bush looked strong, and Cruz and Rubio trailed far behind more established candidates like Huckabee, Paul and Perry

Since more than one preference is important in the caucus, polling for a persons top 1 and 2 picks may be the most accurate way to poll, so QU adds them up (Because of the methodology, numbers dont add up to 100%)

Walker 33%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 22%
Paul 20%
Huckabee 16%
Carson 15%
Bush 12%
Christie 7%
Perry 7%
Fiorinia 6%
Santorum 6%

Again, Rubio has the hot hand, polling at 9% in Feb, while Cruz was at 11%. In February, it looked like Bush, Carson or Paul would emerge as the alternative to Walker. Now, it seems like it will be Rubio or Cruz.

QU asks if there is any candidates that you would never support, and it's pretty much what you expect - Bush 25%, Christie 20%, Paul 10%

It's hard to get elected if a large section of the voting bloc doesn't like you, so QU asks about Favorability.

Both Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have higher Unfavorable responses than Favorable ones, with 52% of all Iowa Republicans polled saying Christie isn't Conservative enough.

Eight candidates poll above 50% in Favorability

Rubio 69%
Huckabee 64%
Walker 59%
Paul 59%
Cruz 59%
Santorum 56%
Carson 53%
Perry 51%

But half of these have significant percentages of people who have an unfavorable opinion

Perry 30%
Santorum 28%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 23%
Cruz 19%
Walker 11%
Rubio 9%
Carson 9%

So, I didn't expect Cruz to be in the race, but there he is. I would say this went from a 3-Person race (Walker, Bush, and a third choice probably Paul or Carson) to a 3 person race of Walker, Rubio, and Cruz with Carson still looking like a wild card.

In what is probably relevant for polling question, though it certainly sounds more like a "sh*t and giggles" type of question, Barack Obama scored a 93% unfavorable rating from Iowa Republicans. Both Dubya Bush and HW Bush meanwhile enjoy 80% favorability

QU released the Democrat results the next day, and at this point, I don't see much use in spending too much time with these numbers. It should be noted that Bernie Sanders had just announced his candidacy halfway through the week of the polling process, while Martin O'Malley had not yet announced his campaign.

Clinton 60%
Sanders 15%
Biden 11%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 3%

It should be noted that the May poll did not include Elizabeth Warren as a choice. In February, she polled at 19%. Bernie Sanders seems the most obvious recipient of the change (Sanders was at 5% in Feb, trailing Clinton at 61%, Warren, and Biden at 7% at that time.)

Biden predictably does well as a second choice.

Biden 33%
Clinton 20%
O'Malley 11%
Sanders 10%
Webb 3%
Chafee 2%

It's perhaps good news for O'Malley who wants to be seen as the prime competition against Hillary.

Among Dems, Hillary's favorability is 83%, and unfavorable is 11%; while Biden is 79-15, which seems to say advantage Hillary.

195 say Hillary is not liberal enough, which is maybe her only area of concern.

Among Iowa Dems, on the Obama favorability question, 86% say favorable, while 11% say unfavorable. As far as Bill Clinton, the numbers are practically are the same 87-10

Current Music: Everything Everything- Arc
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I think it is safe to say we are in Caucus Season now.

It doesn't feel like it of course. Perhaps, it's because we have not quite hit the stride of the trail, where TV ads are rampant, and debates are on tv. Maybe, it's because the GOP field lacks a declared front runner (Scott Walker and Jeb Bush both hint. Walker likely will run. Bush we don't know)

Still, it's here, and we know it as this year, pretty much everyone who even is talked about in the smallest of circles is throwing their hat in the ring. It's a lame duck term, so of course, that makes sense, so we even get Pataki (officially) and Lindsay Graham (highly likely) even if throngs of people weren't waiting for them.

So we are at the beginning, but let's take Thursday, there's three candidates who made three stops each- Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Bernie Sanders

In short, we're infested with Presidential candidates, and it's dangerous out there

Which brings me to this story:

Hillary Motorcade Barrels Down Iowa Interstate at 95MPH

This story hit places like Inside Edition, The Daily Mail, NewsMax and other likely places.

The story goes something like this "Hillary was running away from masses of reporters, trying to ditch them en route to a secret fundraiser; and because no one will believe it without proof, there's video.

I have a few thoughts of course.

First, the video is somewhat suspect. It's hardly the stunning indictment that Hillary haters think it is.

This may or not may be Hillary going 95 mph. It's certainly someone going 95 mph to catch up with the motorcade, but anymore that this is pure speculation.

Second, yeah it is probably true. I saw Obama in Iowa a couple of times. Once, near the caucus, and he was late for a 10am, which was only a second or third stop in a busy day. The second, another later appearance on the eve of the 2012 election. How else do you do it? You book every possible stop you can in a day, and it's rude to leave a cheering audience for your next stop.

Even marginal candidates schedule themselves days where they crisscross the state have unenviable travel logs.

Of course, I will give my standard warning to the Hillary haters who have spent all spring and will spend all summer rallying against Hillary. Let 2012 be you warning. You may keep Hillary out of the White House, but you also may elect President O'Malley or Webb.

Lastly, because some will make this a partisan issue, I can't help but bring up one of the state's biggest stories of 2013. In July of that year, the Governor's vehicle was pulled over and ticketed for going 84mph in a 70.

It may not have been made better by a Lt. Governor who said it was not normal for the Governor to speed, but some times necessary. While probably true, an apology probably would have been the right course of action.

In which case, the story probably would have went away, had it not ended up the officer who ticketed the governor was abruptly fired.

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If you have followed my blog for awhile, you are probably wondering why I have not been blogging about the 2016 Election.

While i have been very busy, i do still get here quite a bit. So, what's up?

It's just not that exciting yet.

There are a couple of reasons why.

For starters, on the GOP side, the candidates are the same ones generally that I wrote about in great detail 4 years ago.

Things will pick up, but there's no new blood. I have been talking about Messrs. Jindal, Santorum, Rubio, etc for a long time now. Even bonafide conversation starters like Sarah Palin and Donald Trump have run their course.

You would expect some big news from those who have actually announced, but Rand Paul no longer feels fresh (and the story right now is that he can't draw audiences like his dad. Thats probably an unfair accusation at this point in the election cycle, but is also true to date) and Ted Cruz's big announcement was overshadowed by the news story that his wife was signing up for Obamacare.

Still, we have hit the point where every month (probably up to the caucus) there is a major event or fundraiser that will get serious media coverage.

The Iowa Faith and Family Forum this week (headed by ultraconservative Iowan Bob Vander Plaats) is one of those big events. We didn't learn anything we didn't know. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush didn't attend, so their road may lead to the White House, but they will do it without Iowa evangelicals. Meanwhile, Scott Walker takes a further step forward as possible front runner.

Which leads to Pizza Ranch.

It has been written about in many major media outlets, but I will take a few moments to recap.

Every night and every day (it seems) somewhere in Iowa, there's a candidate at Pizza Ranch.

There's a few reasons why this western themed pizza-and-chicken buffet place is so popular. It's located in plenty of small Iowa towns.

These restaurants have meeting rooms which draw the candidates and is cheap (Once when I needed a meeting place, I contacted Pizza Ranch for a place I could put 40-50 people. "Meeting room is free. Everyone has to buy a buffet though." "But not every one is going to eat." "I didn't say they had to eat the buffet")

It also is a very Conservative business- the owners and upper management made of friends and donors of Conservatism. It's a perfect match for the GOP.

Indeed, every significant candidate (with two exceptions) of the last two Republican caucuses visited a few Pizza Ranches as part of their campaign strategy. Indeed, by hitting Pizza Ranches frequently in 2011-12 was likely what won the state for Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney never used the restaurant, trying to distance himself from a new story in which a Founder and significant VIP went to prison for an underage sex scandal. Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza passed over Pizza Ranch for obvious reasons.

The Des Moines ran this Pulitzer-worthy piece of journalism on March 25: If you and the family are heading to Pizza Ranch just to enjoy a slice and some wings, you might find your meal interrupted.

Such was the fate of this fellow at a Pizza Ranch in Council Bluffs last week, whose trip through the chicken buffet was halted by a swarm of people surrounding Mike Huckabee during his event there last week. See the video below.

A Republican blogger did respond to this piece, saying 1) it's not actually Huckabee that's holding up the buffet and 2) the delay was a matter of seconds; so this is 3) a liberal media spin piece. This of course means we are all taking this way too seriously.

That said, the terror is real.

Leave it to the Onion to nail this.

“I still think about the morning when Michael Dukakis and Dick Gephardt came in at the same time, and by the time they were done shaking my hand and talking about the struggles of the middle class, my eggs were cold and I was late for work. I didn’t even get a chance to touch my home fries. I’ll never forget how hungry I was.” Brandon added that her most cherished memory was from the 1996 primary season, when she was able to order her short stack to go and slip out of the restaurant before Steve Forbes could talk to her about his flat tax..

Current Music: U2- Songs of Innocence
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/1016891.html

Check out any of my recent posts on the 2016 Iowa US Senate race, and you know that I think this could have national implications.

First and foremost, Joni Ernst, a state senator, has risen to national prominence based on tv ads that look like Tina Fey skits. It's the Sarah Palin playbook, but taken to parody-like extremes.

But it worked.

Mark Jacobs, former CEO of Reliant Energy, looks on paper as the favorite, but has seen a double digit lead over Ernst in February, go the other way, and the 11 point deficit looks insurmountable.

Jacobs, who has a resume like Romney, an easygoingness like Dubya, and looks like Robert Vaughn should have won. He's not going to, and after months of feel good ads, he's finally forced to fight dirty. His newest ad starts "Some people will do anything to be elected" and shows Ernst putting on her motorcycle helmet, trying to get some "Dukakis in a tank" mojo coming. He also attacks Ernst vote on raising state fuel taxes (Iowa actually could use the boost in infrastructure revenues, but I am a tax-and-spend liberal) and her biggest weakness (missing 40% of the Iowa Senate's votes.)

(Let t be said, Jacobs is likeable, but if you invested $100 in stock in his company when he took over CEO, you would have $13 when he exited).

Still, Ernst's move has paid big dividends. If anything, maybe she should have tok it to even more ludicrous extremes.

This being Iowa, there's a Presidential politics component to this.

The most obvious one is Ernst's turnaround is directly related to the involvement of Sarah Palin. I think drawing conclusions from here is risky. I don't know that Palin is even interested in a run, or that this translates into meaningful support, but it is to her credit.

Marco Rubio and Mitt Romney (who has expressed some interest in another run) have also suppored Ernst, though I am not sure there will be meaningful gains from it.

The race got another headline last week when Rick Santorum stepped in to give support to Sam Clovis.

Clovis is a conservative radio show host, and the kind of candidate that is down Santorum's alley. Clovis seems like the type of person who wil max out at 10-15% of the vote, but Santorums are gonna Santorum, and it's the kind of move that sets up Rick for 2016. (If you think Santorum can't win Iowa, it might be time to recall that he did win the 2012 caucus).

I don't know Clovis (He's based in a different part of the state) though he looks right out of central casting for 'Conservative talk show' host and he says things like "America is not ready yet for a Black President to get impeached." See what he did there.

There is a fourth- Matt Whittaker- who is just starting to run ads and who seems to be topping out at 8-10% in polls. Whittaker is a former college football star turned US attorney- although he is not half as charismatic as that sentence sounds.

Whittaker has received the endorsement of Rick Perry- which may play out well for Rick- as Jacobs's numbers go south and if Ernst would start to tank.

Jacobs has sinced tried to counter these endorsements by making a 'major announcement" of his own last week. This ended up being the endorsement of Bil Northey is the Secretary of Agriculture (an elected office in Iowa). You can make an argument that Northey is the most well-liked Republican in the state; though if that 'big announcment' sounds underwhleming, it surely was.

Current Music: The Veils - Time Stays,We Go
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/980717.html

If you have been here long, you know I spend a great time discussing the Presidential election, but generally that is it.

There is a primary election next month here in Iowa which will fill the US Congress seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.

It's a crowded field,led by the former CEO of Reliant Energy Mark Jacobs (the presumptive front runner), state senator Joni Ernst, and three others that include a local Conservative radio host and a former University of Iowa football player.

Jacobs has filled the airwaves for awhile now with his ads of how he grew up as a boy with a newspaper route, which taught him responsibility and service.

Of course, I wouldn't bring this up at all here, but Ernst's commercials start out with her saying she grew up castrating pigs.

Which means she can cut pork. Hey-Oh!

Ernst is clearly using the Sarah Palin playbook, of course, and political views aside, I am not sure the party will nominate her with Jacobs around, a better resume.

The GOP does love their maverick women but they generally don't love them that much (Michele Bachman, Sarah Palin, Christine O'Donnell et al seem to have a hit a certain glass ceiling. Of course, we will have to see how 2016 pans out. The Democrats generally haven't done much better)

Of course, this being 2014, Ernst has went viral, being commented on by Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert (while others think surely this is another Jimmy Kimmel prank).

Ernst has went all in on this gimmick, and unveiled her RV which says "Honk if you want to make Washington squeal"

Hey-oh!

Joni has taken criticism for her Iowa senate career for missing votes in the state Senate. She has missed 73 of 105 votes this session, and although she claims her duty in the National Guard takes her away from the Capitol, common sense and her Facebook statuses indicate there's more going on than her one weekend a month.

In comparison, if Ernst were elected, her Senior Senator, Charles Grassley has only missed 36 votes in his 30-plus US Senate career.

This last weekend, Sarah Palin was in town to endorse Ernst, which she called ShePAC, the "Heels on, Gloves Off' tour.

Palin (dressed in local college gear) sold Ernst as a Harley rider who loves her guns and her Country.

I have long decided Palin will not make a run for the Presidency, but 2016 pundits should note attendance of the Palin/Ernst event was around 300- a total much, much lower than anything Palin has drawn in this state in the past.

Current Music: The Smiths- Hatful of Hollow

If you have been here awhile, you know that I like to talk electioneering.

It's on, as you know, for 2016.

The GOP is already polling its members and they have a list of 32 candidates they think are most likely to run.

It's less a revelation than solid proof you can get up to 32 pretty quick just based on observations from the last couple of election cycles. they don't need to even get to Donald Trump or Ted Nugent to get to number 32.

Sure, Peter King has kinda said he's definitely running, but here's a list of people who are actually running in 2016.

Why are they running now? Clearly because they have a way to go to get noticed.

Kip Lee- Lee will work with the Ashtar Command, an extraterrestrial “benevolent group of cosmic friendship.” We talk a lot about international relations, so it's nice to see someone who works on interstellar relations. His ideal running mate is John Stossel. Kip says the spaceship will land on January 20, 2017. he is a libertarian against all federal institutions, and this includes banks and prisons.

Doug Schreffer- Schreffer has room for Hillary as his Veep choice, because he's friends with Bill. He knows Bill because he's former CIA and used the codename of “Strong Ramrod.” (Hey now!) Politico took his advice to validate his secret identity but came up short.

Terry Jones- You may already know Jones who ran in 2012 as the "Burn a Koran" dude.

Robby Wells- A Democrat who was football coach at Savannah State University. He's run for the Reform Party and Constitution Party nominations, and calls his plan "Eaglenomics" because "you need two wings to fly". Robbie was fired as coach and sued for racial discrimination (Wells is white. SSU is traditionally black), though it should be noted his record was 7-15.

Phil Bralich- An Occupy! Democrat who claims to be "more liberal than Chomsky, but less liberal than Christ". Nice. His wild card veep choice is Ann Coulter.

Patrick Drake- Told Politico he wouldn’t do a telephone interview with them because “I’m not as eloquent a speaker as President Obama.” Not going to hear much about him, huh?

Temperance Lance-Council - Running on the Anti-Hypocrisy Party ticket

Michael Kinlaw- a 40 year-old former mortgage company executive single guy who promises a First Girlfriend in the White House.

Timothy Kalemkarian- the ever optimistic Kalemkarian has run every election since 1996

Yinka Abosede Adeshina- the first person to file with the FEC for the 2016 election, which she did in September of 2010.

President Princess Khadijah Jacob-Fambro- Well, certainly, she has the name for it. She has released a statement that says she's an alien and is asking another alien, in this case Lil Wayne to marry her and become co-President. Mr and Mrs Weezy '16.

David Christopher Holcomb - the Pro-Life conservative Democrat from Nebraska. His website also says he will be the next chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. His isues appear to be pardoning Edward Snowden, legalizing pot, and raising minimum wage to $17. Holcomb claims his identity was stolen and is out to stop anyone who is claiming to be him through social media. So there's that. He also shares Terry Jones' s thoughts on Islam and wants to nuke Iran.

Jeff Boss- I remember Boss, the 2012 candidate who runs for every election in New Jersey and claims he was there when the US government planned 9/11. I made a joke four years ago about him posting a sign that says the government is out to kill him and then naming his office address and hours. seems like they could just go kill him. They haven't killed him yet, and no surprise, he is running. Boss got 639 votes in 2008 as the "Vote Here" candidate (i wish I had thought of that) and 1024 votes in 2012 as the "NSA did 9/11" candidate.

Jack Fellure - The 82-year old Fellure always appears on these lists, as he is the perennial candidate for the Prohibition Party. he got 518 votes in 2012, appearing on the ballot in Louisana.

Samm Tittle- This Conservative claims that no one has ever been President and done what they said they were going to (Suck on that, Lincoln!). She got over 2000 votes in 2012 and her issues appear to be stopping welfare and Sharia law.

Vermin Supreme- Another perennial, but just to cover him as he campaigns through Montana. he advocates an airstrike on Narnia, mandatory tooth brushing, investment in time travel, zombie preparedness, and free ponies for all. You know, that's a better platform than some candidates i have voted for.

Josue Larose- A Colbert alumni, who is charged with breaking 2052 election laws (There are 2052 election laws? Big government!), has formed 40 political parties (doubling the number of parties in Florida) and literally dozens of PACs like the "Billionaire Josue Larose Dating Women Committee" (the single guy up above could learn a lot from LaRue). By-laws for the Parties that Larose created (in case you wanted to join one)include providing Larose around-the-clock bodyguards and Larose travelling in a limo at all times.

So, the extra couple of years running certainly won't hurt these hopefuls.

Of course, I didn't do this all on my own, I got most of my content from the links below.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/2016-election-fringe-hopefuls-100473.html

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2013/02/19_candidates_definitely_runni.php

http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2013/06/update-2016-presidential-candidates-who-have-filed-with-the-fec/

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Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/964095.html

The first official Des Moines Register Poll came out a couple of weeks ago which means you can say it's officially 2016 season in Iowa.

Here are the high level findings as reported by the Register. Yeah, this is going to look like that these are their findings and I am just taking credit, but in the spirit of bipartisanship, I asked Joe Biden and Rand Paul if it was okay, and they said yes.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton is the most popular candidate across the board. No matter how loud her haters yell, she continues to prevail. 50% of all Iowans like her no matter party affiliation. Among Democrats, she has 89% favorable/7%unfavorable ratings which puts her in a field by her own.

I get it. Even though I have shared some ways HilRod could lose the state, but the Clintons are the preeminent political dynasty of our time. Alter the last 13 years, people wish for a time when they felt their jobs were more secure, the stock market was a place worth risking their money, and sitcoms were funnier (I don't agree with any of those sentiments- I was working a minimum wage job; if you wanted to make money the time to buy into the srock market was the lows of 2008, and Sheldon and Penny over Ross and Rachel all day everyday).

Joe Biden suffers in comparison, clearly feeling the effects of Obama's unpopularity. He was least liked candidate across the board, gathering 57% unfavorablity when all Iowans were polled. Among Dems, His 71%favorable/18%unfavorable is significantly trailing Clinton.

The poll included Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer who have made movements as serious candidates, but as you can guess, their numbers are barely registrable.

Republicans

Paul Ryan - Perhaps it should be obvious someone from the National ticket should be at #1 for the party. It also should be noted that this came out right as Ryan announced he was not interested in running (as if that matters yet) and right after the Ryan budget (which per my Facebook feed, pissed off some of his fans, but as the poll was taken, GOPers said that they were fine with his budget given his strong Conservative leanings, and it was a non-factor).

He was the favorite with Tea party and second favorite among born again Christians, which are strong numbers. Among Republicans - 73% favorable/10%unfavorable to put him in the #1 position currently,

Mike Huckabee - The 2008 Iowa winner remains in a position of strength. 66% favorable/17% unfavorable among his party and #1 with Born Agains and of course strong support from the tea party. Opponents are planning to attacj his Arkansas record and call him "Tax hike Mike".

Rick Santorum - 58% favorable/21% unfavorable with Republicans. Clearly, how Santorum does depends on whether Huckabee gets in (and it looks like Mike will), but 2012's caucus winner got a lot of good will from time spent her in the last cycle.

Rick Perry 55% favorable/19% unfavorable - Critics are calling this a case of absence makes the heart grow fonder as he finished fifth in 2012 and these numbers reflect higher than many expected.

Jeb Bush 51% favorable/26% unfavorable with Republicans.- saddled with a bad name and a moderate attitude, Bush has second highest unfavorable rating with his party. He is the least liked candidate by self-identified tea partiers.

Chris Christie 51% favorable/30% unfavorable - the highest unfavorable ratings in his party and a tie for fifth on the plus column, Christie's road to nomination is a much bumpier route than you might imagine. He scores well with Independents (Only HillRod does better with that crowd).

Rand Paul 51% favorable/23% unfavorable - Critics say Paul gets a built in crowd because of his dad 9of course), but that also his ceiling (We'll see).

Scott Walker 46% favorable/11% unfavorable Walker has the biggest gray area which could work for him. 43% sure of Republicans said that they are 'not sure' what they think of the Wisconsin Governor.

Marco Rubio 46% favorable/15% unfavorable Prevailing thought and my experience seems to indicate Rubio's stand on immigration will kill any chance he has.

Ted Cruz - 46% favorable/17% unfavorable Cruz seems to have worked the hardest in 2013, though the fact he hadn't stepped a foot into the state before that means a bit of an uphill battle. While, the low returns from his time here seems discouraging, 375 of GOPers fall into the 'Not Sure' category.

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I posted some early thoughts on the 2016 Iowa Caucus. the best articles I have read to date on both parties was what I drew from heavily.Of course, it doesn't matter because we knew all along that Barry Hussein was going to circumvent the law and run fro a third term.They already got the legislation drafted up to repeal the 22nd Amendment.

You probably already the Fox News article which of course is headlined King Obama?

Indeed, Congressman Jose Serrano has introduced legislation to end Presidential term limits. Our facebook newsfeed has already jumped on this, but once again, Snopes probably captures it best of all.

Yes, there's a proposal to end the 22nd Amendment, but there always is. Republicans and Democrats have both pushed bills no matter who is in the White House. Steny Hoyer has introduced the bill for years when Clinton and Dubya were in power. Even going back to Reagan and Nixon, there as always been someone arguing for it, but it dies in committee, never coming close to a vote, nevermind going to the next level of an Amendment- going to state votes.

Still, Obama's third term conspiracy rumors go further. You would think that Obama being power hungry and self-obsessed would be reason enough. But Obama theories have become a cottage industry, and Porter Stansbury wants to take it to the next level.

Stansberry's website Obamathirdterm.com spells it out, but here is what you need to know. Stansberry thinks that Obama will take advantage of a nearing prosperity that will be driven by natural gas reserves and America- wealthy, healthy and wise will elect Obama to a 3rd term.

Which means that Stansberry thinks the guy will make us all rich and powerful. I am not sure why that's such a bad thing. What does he want from a president? Stansberry thinks if not Barack, then Michelle will be elected on these "good times" (which is legal, you know).

If you have never heard of Stansberry, he's been fined millions of dollars by the SEC for fraud. He recently was touting a similar 'quick prosperity' scheme by touting a penny stock company as being days away from curing AIDS.

In any case, I do laugh at my friends on Facebook who hate Obama and think that if they use enough capital letters and punctuation marks and post enough memes that they will change the election. They are terrified of the repeal of the 22nd Amendment, and there's a meme dare out there where you post you wish Obama could run again (or something similar in horribleness like "Where can I buy used sex toys'.)

Which I find silly. Some Rand Paul fanatic who is terrified of 'Obama 2016'. The only scenario I see with Rand Paul in the White House involves him running against Obama 35 months from now.

Elections aren't decided by those Facebook screamers or those arguing logic like myself, but by the middle - and Obama has lost the middle. I don't think Obama would win a third term. He certainly feels like a weaker candidate than Hillary- a member of the most beloved political family of the last 25 years.

Even with the charisma, can you argue Obama is a better candidate than a blank-slate candidate who has all the good stuff (gay marriage, immigration policy) and none of the baggage (that healthcare.gov website).

In any case, if I was a GOPer I think i would take my chances against Barry. If you can't beat him a third time with his approval around 38%, you've got bigger problems.

Of course, repealing the 22nd Amendment would unleash the possibility of The Return of Bubba (and Zombie Reagan, of course) and after 10years of Middle Class tears, that would be a shoo-in.

Current Music: Babyshambles- Sequel to the Prequel
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/958971.html

I did a post on the ten Republicans who are most poised for a run for President based on actions in Iowa.

It never occurred to me to do the same on the Democrat side.

There is clearly one name and everyone else (even when you throw Biden in the mix).

Maybe it is because Chuck Schumer was here last month and is already telling Iowans to vote for Hillary in 2016.

Still, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't consider other potential candidates for 2016.

Martin O'Malley (Governor of Maryland) would seem to be the person making the most obvious moves toward courting Iowans. I also count Joe Biden for reasons I have posted about before, and would be more surprised if he doesn't run than if he does.

Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has been making comments like he wants to visit all 99 counties of Iowa, which seems an unlikely vacation dream even if you live in Montana.

Missouri Senator Claire McKaskill is one of the people spearheading the "Madame President" project by Emily's List which strives to put a woman in the White House. One wonders if like Cheney's hunt for a Vice President, if McKaskill will find herself tasked with leading the charge.

Still, it all comes down to Hill Rod, and there's plenty of people (perhaps you, dear reader) who find this academic.

James Strohman's excellent article in the local indie newspaper gives some quick and hard facts you have probably forgotten in why HilRod is not a shoo-in.

They include:

-Hillary finished third in 2008. We remember she lost in Iowa to Obama, but we forget she was also eclipsed by John Edwards She carried 29% of the vote- Obama took 38% and Edwards took 30%.

-Bill Clinton did not take an active role in the 1992 caucus. No one did. Iowa favorite son Tom Harkin ran for President and everyone else took a pass, thus he never had to build a group of supporters in the Hawkeye State.

-The Obama vs Hillary race was brutal. Obama voters never really forgave Hillary for the things she said about Obama in that 2008 race. Hillary called Obama 'too divisive' and 'unelectable' among other things. If you weren't here in 2008, you have likely forgotten and forgiven, but it was clearly a 'us vs them' mentality that has stayed.

-As much time as we spend talking about how the Iowa GOP race is beholden to the far Right, the Dems are equally dictated by the Left. Would Hillary's moderate views find her votes.

-Strohman postulates that Biden would be unbeatable as well as suggesting the Emily's List movement would find a viable candidate in Elizabeth Warren or someone similar. Bad news for Hillary

-HillRod hasn't spent much time in Iowa like Biden or O'Malley. Iowans like to be courted. Even then, one suspects Hillary wouldn't want to do the footwork to make up that ground either. Clearly, even if she was willing, 2008 showed that she was not good at running that ground game, which was something Obama excelled at. Bypassing Iowa would not be a smart option either as it has been a momentum loss for the likes of Giuliani, McCain, and Huntsman to name a few.

-The best news for Hillary are the national polls where she crushes Christie, Paul, Rubio, and the rest of the GOP field. Unfortunately, the same polls in 2008 said the same thing

It all leads to a less clear 2016 picture than many across the nation have already arrived at.

Current Music: Guy Forsyth- Steak
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/958331.html

Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register wrote an article this week about the ten people who have spent time in Iowa and made significant public appearances and media stops while in the state.

I give you the 'ten that are likely in'.

Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Scott Brown

Each man has appeared in crowds of 450-800 with the exception of Santorum and Brown. Santorum, of course won the caucus by starting off in much the same way, so you can't count him out (especially if Huckabee and Palin move out of the way). Brown is a prime example of why you can't predict these things too far ahead. He was a golden boy who lost his national spotlight. Pundits like Brown, though. They say he's smart and he was named "Sexiest Man Alive" by Cosmo in 1982 (really), so never count out 'good looking politician'.

Palin drew a crowd of over 1000, although the article suggests at this point she is probably more a fundraiser star than an actual candidate. I have to think that's true. It would all be downhill for her if she was actually elected. Barry Obama told her that.

I saw Palin's appearance on local press and she actually called Obama a "Silly Goose" (of course, she did) which suggests to me at this point, Palin is playing Tuna Fey playing Palin. Palin also told the Iowa crowds that Obamacare was like slavery. No, that's okay, because she prefaced it by saying "This isn't racist, but..."

It sounds like Huckabee is more likely to run that he looked four years ago, which means he was smart not to run against an incumbent. Walker has made comments that no one will vote for a member of Congress (playing the outsider/Governor card). Cruz and Paul (and Marco Rubio, for that matter) are first term Senators (which was what Obama was when he first announced in 2007) which may not be a good thing..

Jacobs calls Cruz the one with the most buzz, and maybe that it is true. Cruz seems to be the one acting most like a candidate. I don't know what that translates into. I see him a bit as a Tim Pawlenty- the guy who is trying too hard to court the prettiest girl in the room. Pawlenty spent and spent and visited every weekend, and the GOPers were just sick of him. Cruz may end up like that.

Jacobs makes no mention of Chris Christie, which is fine. The one thing I have learned from living through 3 election cycles in Iowa is that the 'National' candidate doesn't automatically get any support. Rudy Giuliani is the best example of that, but look at those who should have won. Kerry over Dean. Obama over Hillary. Huckabee over McCain. Santorum over Romney. None of those results should have went that way, but in each case, the candidate with better ground support was triumphant.

Lastly, I can't finish a post on 2016 without a nod to the documentary film Caucus which is getting some buzz. The best story is of how Michele Bachmann tried too hard, and the bizarre behavior of her husband. One can't just zoom through Iowa's 99 counties and assume that is enough.

As the campaign goes on, Bachmann's husband Marcus becomes part of the story. During the final month before the caucuses, the Bachmanns stormed through all of Iowa's 99 counties in 11 days, turning their campaign into a perpetual blur of exits from the massive bus, hurried handshakes and a hasty retreat back into the vehicle. I personally remember watching Marcus Bachmann literally pushing Michele out the front door of a café one of those days with a smile plastered to his face, trying to give the appearance of engaging a voter in conversation.

The constant travel and lack of sleep turned Marcus punch-drunk. One of the most amazing moments in the film is when Marcus tries to convince a middle-aged man to vote for his wife as Michele talks at ear-splitting levels about gas prices. He takes the man's hand, and begins to try to thumb wrestle him. The man laughs, but withdraws his hand, and Marcus picks it back up, saying, "One more time and it's Michele, ok?"

"I don't know what that is," the man says.

"It's thumb wrestling. It's thumb wrestling," Marcus offers.

"I don't have a thumb," the man responds. "They took the bone out of there."

Marcus turns away to a man across the table, and tries to get him to thumb wrestle. The man just shakes his head.

Current Music: Everything Everything - Arc
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/957267.html

So I told you about Palin and Mike Lee's visit to Des Moines for the Faith and Freedom Coalition fundraiser.

Well, you can't just let sarah grab all the headlines, can you?

Which is why Rick Perry is in Des Moines. He is on the Sunday local news program calling the Iowa caucus "quirky" (which is code for saying he finished fifth last time) but "manageable" (which means he really wants to win this time).

So is Rick Santorum. He is here ostensibly to attend a film at the local cinema. No, not "Thor 2", but to promote his new movie. rather, the movie released by the studio that he is the CEO of- "The Christmas Candle".

it allows Rick to say the usual things like that Hollywood has long been the Devil's Playground, and the film will be known (if it is known at all) for being Susan Boyle's big screen debut.

So there's that.

Paul Ryan next week for the Republican governor's birthday, just in case you forgot him.

Current Music: Radiohead- The King of Limbs
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/955511.html

You probably have wondered why I haven't started extensive caucus coverage yet.

Well, a few reasons. For one, it is a bit early, and if there is anything I have to say, Lucky Bensonhurt has probably already said it. people want to make assumptions about elections like Virginia's recent gubernatorial race, but it says more about the candidates for governor and Virginia in November 2013 than it says anything about the state of National politics two years from now.

I have already told you my thoughts, but I will recount. Ted Cruz most certainly will run. It's impossible to think anything but that Rand Paul is running. Surely, Rick Santorum still feels the call and will be active. I also think Joe Biden will run. Biden called the Coralville mayor and congratulated him on his win (the Democrat beat a heavily Koch Bros backed opponent) and attended the Harkin Steak Fry this August.

Again, we are clearly in the 'testing the waters' phase, and although that's not the total rundown of events, those are the most active players to date.

Until this weekend, when Sarah Palin set foot in the Hawkeye State.

She took a bold chance and has come out as being pro-puppy.

http://localtvwhotv.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/palin-3.jpg?w=560

Okay there isn't a better chance to be cynical than a potential presidential candidate getting photo ops with puppies. Even if it is a good thing. Palin and Sen. Mike Lee put in a good word for service dogs (one of my favorite causes) and got the appropriate face time with Central Iowan Republicans.

Palin did some of this stuff around this time last election cycle, so there's no guarantee of anything.

Still, puppies.

Current Music: Future Bible Heroes- Partygoing
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/955129.html

Sen. Tom Harkin held his annual Steak Fry, which of course is one of the signposts for a Presidential election; and with Joe Biden headlining (and San Antonio mayor Julian Castro also speaking), some obvious conclusions are arrived at.

That means the Reagan Dinner is next- the GOPs version of the same thing. Unfortunately, the only news coming out of that (besides that Donal Trump is scheduled to appear, though is record in Iowa of showing up as planned is somewhere between Axl Rose and Morrissey) is that Ted Cruz is headlining, and dinner ticket prices are priced to sell.

With a headline like"Ted Cruz Dinner Tickets Now 25% off", it's bad news for the iowa GOP and worse news for Cruz for pulling a "Tim Pawlenty" by peaking too soon or not peaking at all- which also means he's way too available to Iowans, and he's not drawing campaign contributor interest.

In any case, the real news is the first 2016 Bumper Sticker spotted in Iowa.

That isn't it, but that is the first bumper sticker I have seen while stopped at a red light.

No, the first one I recall seeing was one that said Hillary/Michelle 2016.

Which shows how divided the nation is.

While that sounds perfect to some, according to my Facebook friends' page, that would be a situation (that combo in power) worse
than The Walking Dead being cancelled.

Or the Walking Dead coming to life.

Nor am I convinced that the Ryan sticker (available through his Prosperity PAC) above is brand new.

Based on some conversations I have had and expectations at the time, I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been planted before the end of the Romney campaign.

In any case, the 2016 campaign?

It's on!!

Current Music: Dandy Warhols- Welcome to the Monkey House
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/945158.html

Inevitably, you saw my post on the Butter Cow being vandalized. A Vegan Rights Group member hid in the building where the butter cow is kept and poured red paint on the cow and graffiti-ed over the window.

So, what did we learn?

Well, first off paint doesn't really stick to butter. The butter sculptor was able to wash off the paint and have the Cow ready to go before fairgoers came in the next day.

We also learned you don't mess with the Butter Cow.

The Fair sold 3000 Butter Cow Security t-shirts in the last few days, and thousands more are ordered, and the maker plans to sell them online weeks after the Fair.

The Animal Liberation Front still says it was totally worth it, but clearly, the effect has generally been favorable towards the Butter Bovine.

Meanwhile, the butter cow at the Illinois State Fair hasn't seen added security after this incident, though, it does have its own 24/7 webcam.

As the Fair reaches it last day, it was also grist for Scott Brown (remember him? ex-Massachusetts senator?) who visited the fair today, clearly and unashamedly here for the first steps of a 2016 election run. Brown was on local news putting in a good word for the Cow.

Current Music: The Veils- Time Stays, We Go
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/940685.html

It is always campaign season in Iowa, but we usually have some downtime.

Which is why the new Marco Rubio ad about immigration reform caught me by surprise.

It looks and feels like a Presidential ad.

There are some clear points need to be made.

Rubio is clearly interested in being President, but here are three reasons why he won't be #45.

1- Immigration is a losing issue in Iowa. It killed John McCain's 2008 primary campaign in Iowa. McCain was verbally beat up for suggesting a path to citizenship and quickly ditched Iowa as a part of his strategy (He didn't need Iowa anyway. He had New Hampshire).

In that same campaign season, Tom Tancredo ran a pretty successful campaign with the one issue of an extreme view on immigration, saying illegal immigrants are "coming here to kill you, and you, and me, and my grandchildren". You might call his campaign unsuccessful (he dropped out before the caucus), but you would be remembering it wrong. Tancredo at times polled at 5-6% and only trailed behind names like Huckabee, McCain, Thompson, Romney and Giuliani.

In 2012, Newt Gingrich essentially repeated the mistakes of McCain, and went from front runner to has-been. Gingrich's Presidential aspirations would have ended somewhere, but the specific spot where he got derailed was his stance on immigration and how the Iowa GOP nailed him on it.

Still, even though that has been a redlight for the last two election cycles, that's even less of a reason than....

2- Iowans aren't real fond of anyone extending the election cycle.

Ads this soon? We are going to be tired of Rubio before we are anywhere close to the actual caucus. In the last caucus season, we went through phases where we grew tired of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney.

I know Iowans don't want political ads this early, and though this is ostensibly a one-off, I wouldn't have recommended it, but most of all..

3. If these ads are any indication, Rubio is boring. I mean colossally boring. Romney may not have been the most charismatic guy but he owned the stage. Rubio is utterly forgettable for his time on the screen (which seems to go on and on), which might be forgivable, if it wasn't scripted and prepared.

Based on performance to date, Rubio's political future is limited.

- - -

The Des Moines Sunday Register ran a three page feature on rand Paul this weekend. Paul is in Iowa and it's absolutely clear this is the beginning of a Presidential run, though it's going to be a year or two before he can say as much.

The article feature included all you need to know about the eye doctor turned Kentucky Senator (such as he's not named after Ayn Rand. His wife just thought Randy Paul didn't sound serious enough).

The Register made a list of people who aren't going to vote for Paul- Religious Conservatives (Paul was particularly savage on Far Right favorite Rick Santorum in 2012), military hawks (Paul eventually wants to end all aid to Israel), libertarians (Paul's view on gay marriage and abortion are decidedly un- libertarian) and even Ron Paul voters (Rand appeared at Romney rallies while his dad was still technically still in the Primary race). Additionally, the Paul faction were a bunch of bullies in 2012 and ticked off the Republican establishment in the state (If you recall, the majority of delegates voted for Ron Paul at the convetntion, despite a third place finish).

I used to say Paul was unelectable, but I am holding my doubts now. I think he is doing some of the things that will gather him a crowd. we will see.

Current Music: Pink Floyd- The Piper at the Gates of Dawn
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/929510.html

I know. I know. It's too early to talk about the 2016 election.

What am I? A crack addict?

Still, it's next impossible with CPAC going on- the Conservative PAC convention is hard to ignore.

Of course, there are places better than this that are covering it like Daily Kos, which is where you would go to get nuggets like "Why is that in the "If we were in power, no one would pay taxes ever" favorites like Wayne LaPierre and Michele Bachmann are suggesting that they would spend millions of taxpayer dollars- to put armed guards in every school (LaPierre) or to fund Alzheimer's and cancer research (Bachmann).

No, we know the news, and we know CPAC is about who is there (Trump, Rubio, Jindal, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Allen West, Carly Fiorina, Newt, Rick Perry, Kelly Ayotte, Palin, Santorum, Paul Ryan, and emcee Ryan Reynolds (not that one)) as who isn't there (Governors Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell of Virginia- who have drawn conservative ire because they are more about governing than talking).

In any case, there's better places to find out about what's going on at CPAC. CSpan, for one. Another source would be Fox News which covers all the important stuff live and will cut away if someone insignificant like a one-term ex-governor is speaking.

It is also hard to not think election when a potential 2016 contender (Ohio Sen. Rob Portman) has reversed his policy on gay marriage after years of voting against equal rights legislation after his son came out).

No, it is in the news here in Iowa.

Mainly because Chuck Grassley has now joined Gov. Branstad in saying the Ames Straw Poll is no longer of any use. Grassley said "You can't be a loser one day and a winner the next (speaking about Rick Santorum, the eventual caucus winner who finished fourth at Ames).

It is also in the news because the Iowa Republican Party has spent a lot of time trying to see what went wrong. This coincided with the Des Moines Register's Sunday front page story which was where they brought in 15 key Republicans and asked what they thought should be different.

The 15 leaders included Santorum, Rand Paul, and RNC chairman Reince Priebus with 12 key state figures (The former State GOP chairman, the Lt Governor, Rick Perry's campaign chair, and congressmen Steve King (that one) and Tom Latham).

So, how does the GOP win in 2016? Their thoughts...

-Get rid of some of the many Presidential debates ("a treasure trove of soundbites for the Obama campaign (to use)" says Lt. Gov Reynolds.)
-Fight negative messages early (Reynolds also says millions of dollars were spent on negative ads about Mitt Romney even before he was running)
-Rethink early voting (a real gamechanger for the Democrats) and rethink technology and voter targeting (mentioned by several)
-Reform government and how it operates. Also don't get distracted by things like Todd Akin's comments(Latham)
-Make it all about a Balanced Budget amendment (King)
-Less government , more liberty, and more dollars in your pocket is a winning message (Paul) Paul also says immigrant reform and reaching out to independents are some ways the GOP could improve their position.
-Center the campaign around what the GOP can do for small business and win over middle income Americans ("We need to compete for the voice of the worker", Santorum says).
-Keep up fundraising efforts.

Overall, the 15 tended towards a message which talked about unity and bringing in the demographics that they struggled with in 2012- women voters, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and the Under 45 crowd (True to form, Santorum says that picking a 'moderate' won't change the party's losing ways).

So, there it is- be inclusive, bring in women, attract middle income Americans and nominate someone that excites everybody. How simple is that? it's kind of like when I was in college and went out on Saturday night. My plan was to be charming, be intellectual, be funny and say and do the right thing at the right time. We all know how that worked out.

Current Music: The Fixx- Reach the Beach
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/923970.html

Politics is hard.

If an ambassador like the Worm can't bring diplomacy to North Korea, what chance does anyone have.

Like the United Nations, I would probably just go and get smashed.

So credit to Rand Paul for his 12 hour Filibuster.

It was as all of your libertarian friends will tell you, just like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.

That's silly of course, but we live in a world where the best political commentary comes from a show that used to be hosted by Craig Kilborn.

We live in a world where Subway runs an ad that implies on Presidents Day, Abe Lincoln, George Washington and Ben Franklin all celebrate.

So, I suppose I am fine among a society who wishes things were like they were back when Tommy Lee Jones was in the Senate.

Rand Paul's filibuster was an awesome thing. Even liberal friends were texting me in the same way baseball fans tell you about a perfect game.

Rand's big night was probably the biggest political moment since Clint Eastwoo'd's speech at the GOP convention. Except more marginal, lost in the higher cable channel number of CSPAN2.

That said, a comparison to Eastwood seems proper. Paul's speech was no Mr Smith, and Eastwood was no Grandpa Simpson, but it was the buzz around the event, not the actual event that is the important thing.

Rand's speech wasn't anything that wasn't typical CSPAN fare. I did tune in to him all through the night. Indeed, i was impressed that Rand kept talking and seemed to continually bring relevant words out of his mouth, going back and forth with a Wyoming Senator like an experienced tag team.

I didn't stay until the late hours, when things got fun. Senators bringing Paul apples and water, Ted Cruz reading lines from Patton and Henry V, and GOPers who had earlier in the night been treated to dinner by Obama sharing details. The thing ended with Paul calling it for an act of nature, which means he hadn't thought of those wacky morning shows think of, wearing an adult diaper.

Of course, at the end of it all, Paul had pissed off both Democrats and Republicans, so he must have done something right. That said, Paul is obviously gearing towards the 2016 election, and although this is most likely a point in his favor, I can't help but think that Chris Christie struck a better chord with the voter in two minutes than Paul did in twelve hours of work.

For more commentary, I will point you over to defFrog and for a fun history lesson, then head over to Foreign Policy, which contains these all-time gems.

In 1924, a Rhode Island Senate filibuster extended 42 continuous hours over three days and "began with a mass fistfight over control of the gavel and ended when Republican operatives placed a poison-soaked rag behind [Democratic Lieutenant Governor Felix] Toupin to gas him out of the presiding officer's chair," according to Gregory Koger's Filibustering: A Political History of Obstruction in the House and Senate.

...

Perhaps the most dramatic filibuster, though, occurred in April 1963 in the Philippines. With legislators evenly divided between supporters of the Liberal Party incumbent, Diosdado Macapagal, and Nationalist Party up-and-comer Ferdinand Marcos, it came down to the Senate to decide the presidency. The day before the scheduled vote, Marcos visited Liberal Senator Roseller Lim, offering to pay off his home loans in exchange for a swing vote. Lim refused and Marcos, incensed, swore at him and his family before departing.

The next day, the Liberal senators were a man down -- Senator Alejandro Almendras was still en route, returning from a throat operation in the United States. Lim took the podium and spoke for 18 hours and 30 minutes -- he could not sit or eat, and he urinated in his pants at the podium rather than allow the vote to occur without the Liberals' crucial swing vote. Finally, Lim yielded the floor upon hearing that Almendras's fight had landed, and collapsed onto a waiting stretcher after casting his vote

Current Music: Killing Joke- What's THIS For?
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/921466.html

GarbageCanMusic warns me I shouldn't talk election, but I can't help it.

It's out there and it can't be avoided.

We had the State of the Union address and what was that if not a practice session for rand Paul and the thirstiest man in Congress, Marco Rubio.

Of course, now is the time when potential candidates make a tribute to the Hawkeye state ostensibly for fundraising that is for someone else, but inevitably means they are seriously thinking White House.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee was at a GOP event targeted around "Pro-Life". Huckabee made a point that he is sticking to his guns on abortion and gay marriage (A recent poll shows 54% of Americans support gay marriage, similarly a poll from last year showed 54% of Americans were against overturning Roe vs Wade).

Nothing to see here, really, Huckabee compared abortion to the holocaust, and if there is any news story, it's that Huckabee said he would not be averse to leaving the GOP if they made any move to the center on the 'family issues' platform. The Des Moines Register reported an audience of about 250.

So, if Huckabee's headlining the GOP fundraiser, who are the Dems bringing in?

How about Lady Gaga?

DailyKos and others picked up on the story that someone who looks like this and someone who looks like this were joining forces:

Harkin was planning an event in DC in which a couple would get two tickets and a VIP concert for around $3000.

Of course, the fundraiser would have happened this weekend.

It didn't.

Harkin has since announced he's not seeking re-election and Gaga had hip surgery which has put he rout of commission temporarily.

The 73-year old Senator has said he's a fan and Gaga's political career is longer than you think is it- fundraisers with New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg and tweeting back and forth with Harry Reid.

So...

2016- How about Huckabee vs Gaga?

Might as well.

Current Music: David Bowie- 'Heroes'
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/919683.html

Sorry to say but the next Presidential election is on.

In depth discussions on why Joe Biden (not Hillary Clinton) will be our next Democratic candidate. Check (As a side note, i get a kick out of my Conservative friends who want to impeach Obama. Trust me, you'd much rather run against Candidate Biden than Incumbent Biden.

In depth discussions on why Joe Biden will not be our next Democratic candidate. Check At 74, he'd be our oldest President to take office. Then there's the Hillary thing. Hillrod is so hot right now, that the unthinkable could occur, and Texas goes Blue in 2016.

Bobby Jindal saying "if you are running for President now, you need your head examined." Check

Rand Paul ripping on Chris Christie. Smells like an election is coming on. (I saw Paul on CNN today talking foreign policy. If he's not running for President, I am eating the proverbial hat).

Start a new website? You're probably running for President.... Hillary

Tell everyone that your next election is in 2016 (when your re-election would take place in 2015)..You might be thinking President....Rahm

Of course, you might say i am jumping ahead, but SERIOUSLY the 2016 election has started.

SOMEONE IS ALREADY RUNNING TV ADS.

Democrat Lee Mercer Jr of Texas has already bought time and aired ads in his home state.

Mercer has an idea that i haven't heard before, but you got to admit it makes sense.

Everything is computerized nowadays. Why not the Presidency?

Mercer promises he has a patented computer program that will create a “new computerized government that will run the office of the President of the United States with a computer.”

You may remember Mercer's previous two runs for President including this last cycle where Mercer raised $900 Million(about $120M more than Obama).

In the last two campaigns, he claims to have raised and spent $78 Billion, and he's running now (nearly four years ahead) because if he starts earlier, he can raise even more in 2016 (Can't argue that logic).

According to his website, Mercer is a Road (sic) Scholar, and some of his 70 reasons for running include that the Government destroyed the sex life of him and his immediate family, and that the government owes him "zillions of dollars"

The best part of course (as the Daily Caller found) is that his "Donation" page gives you an error when clicked.

Current Music: The Damned- Sessions of...
Crossposts: http://bedsitter23.livejournal.com/914347.html

Recently, the Washington Post named Iowa the third most interesting state in politics.

I admittedly wanted to see Illinois higher than #10.

I voted for Blago (once), voted against Ryan, and grew up hearing my Granddad talk about Kerner and Walker.

Four governors go to prison in 40 years. Here goes..

“Otto Kerner – 1961-1968 – convicted of bribery and tax evasion
Dan Walker – 1973-1977 – bank fraud, misapplication of funds, and perjury
George Ryan – 1999-2003 – corruption and bribery
Rod Blagojovich – 2005-2009 – corruption

Also, if you are looking at the long term, I might want to Louisiana better than #4.

Huey Long, Edwin Edwards, David Duke, Ray Nagin, William Jefferson, Buddy Roemer, The Crook vs The Racist

Still, South Carolina is respectable, and with Alvin Greene and Stephen Colbert in recent years, it is hard to argue.

Iowa should definitely be in the conversation though (having two Senators who are much loved and are as far as to the Right and to the Left as anyone with tenure is speaks volumes as well).

in Iowa, the 2016 election is already on.

Iowa State professor and respected pundit Steffen Schmidt was in the Register last week throwing out his best picks at the next GOP nominee.

Schmidt built on a conversation Chris Matthews had about the 'face' of the Republican Party, which gets most of the big names out of the way (Lindsey Graham, Jindal, Rubio, Boehner, Christie,Ryan, and a rising star named George Prescott Bush- Jeb's son is primed for a big job in Texas maybe Attorney General).

Schmidt's other suggestions-

Jeb Bush- who has been vocal in his feeling that the GOP is scaring off Hispanic voters

Rand Paul- who should be the heir to his father's supporters (Ron won 16 of Iowa's 99 counties)

Rick Santorum- meanwhile, Santorum won 64 of those 99 counties in 2012, while running against Michele Bachmann who 'siphoned' some of the Conservative support.

Kelly Ayotte- Schmidt likes the Senator from New Hampshire. She may fix the mis-steps the GOP has made with women and Ayotte has got a ot of face time in GOP attacks regarding Susan Rice and Benghazi.

For some reason, my gut keeps telling me that the nominee is some one not mentioned by either Matthews or Schmidt. Some one who is headed here next month...

Mike Huckabee is headling a "Celebrate Life' event in a Des Moines suburb on February 23.

A post-election poll in November puts Huckabee in the lead among Iowa Republicans- three percentage points over Ryan, Christie, and Rubio. For some reason, i can't shake that 2016 is his year.