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bedsitter23The first official Des Moines Register Poll came out a couple of weeks ago which means you can say it's officially 2016 season in Iowa.
Here are the high level findings as reported by the Register. Yeah, this is going to look like that these are their findings and I am just taking credit, but in the spirit of bipartisanship, I asked Joe Biden and Rand Paul if it was okay, and they said yes.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton is the most popular candidate across the board. No matter how loud her haters yell, she continues to prevail. 50% of all Iowans like her no matter party affiliation. Among Democrats, she has 89% favorable/7%unfavorable ratings which puts her in a field by her own.
I get it. Even though I have shared some ways HilRod could lose the state, but the Clintons are the preeminent political dynasty of our time. Alter the last 13 years, people wish for a time when they felt their jobs were more secure, the stock market was a place worth risking their money, and sitcoms were funnier (I don't agree with any of those sentiments- I was working a minimum wage job; if you wanted to make money the time to buy into the srock market was the lows of 2008, and Sheldon and Penny over Ross and Rachel all day everyday).
Joe Biden suffers in comparison, clearly feeling the effects of Obama's unpopularity. He was least liked candidate across the board, gathering 57% unfavorablity when all Iowans were polled. Among Dems, His 71%favorable/18%unfavorable is significantly trailing Clinton.
The poll included Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer who have made movements as serious candidates, but as you can guess, their numbers are barely registrable.
Republicans
Paul Ryan - Perhaps it should be obvious someone from the National ticket should be at #1 for the party. It also should be noted that this came out right as Ryan announced he was not interested in running (as if that matters yet) and right after the Ryan budget (which per my Facebook feed, pissed off some of his fans, but as the poll was taken, GOPers said that they were fine with his budget given his strong Conservative leanings, and it was a non-factor).
He was the favorite with Tea party and second favorite among born again Christians, which are strong numbers. Among Republicans - 73% favorable/10%unfavorable to put him in the #1 position currently,
Mike Huckabee - The 2008 Iowa winner remains in a position of strength. 66% favorable/17% unfavorable among his party and #1 with Born Agains and of course strong support from the tea party. Opponents are planning to attacj his Arkansas record and call him "Tax hike Mike".
Rick Santorum - 58% favorable/21% unfavorable with Republicans. Clearly, how Santorum does depends on whether Huckabee gets in (and it looks like Mike will), but 2012's caucus winner got a lot of good will from time spent her in the last cycle.
Rick Perry 55% favorable/19% unfavorable - Critics are calling this a case of absence makes the heart grow fonder as he finished fifth in 2012 and these numbers reflect higher than many expected.
Jeb Bush 51% favorable/26% unfavorable with Republicans.- saddled with a bad name and a moderate attitude, Bush has second highest unfavorable rating with his party. He is the least liked candidate by self-identified tea partiers.
Chris Christie 51% favorable/30% unfavorable - the highest unfavorable ratings in his party and a tie for fifth on the plus column, Christie's road to nomination is a much bumpier route than you might imagine. He scores well with Independents (Only HillRod does better with that crowd).
Rand Paul 51% favorable/23% unfavorable - Critics say Paul gets a built in crowd because of his dad 9of course), but that also his ceiling (We'll see).
Scott Walker 46% favorable/11% unfavorable Walker has the biggest gray area which could work for him. 43% sure of Republicans said that they are 'not sure' what they think of the Wisconsin Governor.
Marco Rubio 46% favorable/15% unfavorable Prevailing thought and my experience seems to indicate Rubio's stand on immigration will kill any chance he has.
Ted Cruz - 46% favorable/17% unfavorable Cruz seems to have worked the hardest in 2013, though the fact he hadn't stepped a foot into the state before that means a bit of an uphill battle. While, the low returns from his time here seems discouraging, 375 of GOPers fall into the 'Not Sure' category.
Here are the high level findings as reported by the Register. Yeah, this is going to look like that these are their findings and I am just taking credit, but in the spirit of bipartisanship, I asked Joe Biden and Rand Paul if it was okay, and they said yes.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton is the most popular candidate across the board. No matter how loud her haters yell, she continues to prevail. 50% of all Iowans like her no matter party affiliation. Among Democrats, she has 89% favorable/7%unfavorable ratings which puts her in a field by her own.
I get it. Even though I have shared some ways HilRod could lose the state, but the Clintons are the preeminent political dynasty of our time. Alter the last 13 years, people wish for a time when they felt their jobs were more secure, the stock market was a place worth risking their money, and sitcoms were funnier (I don't agree with any of those sentiments- I was working a minimum wage job; if you wanted to make money the time to buy into the srock market was the lows of 2008, and Sheldon and Penny over Ross and Rachel all day everyday).
Joe Biden suffers in comparison, clearly feeling the effects of Obama's unpopularity. He was least liked candidate across the board, gathering 57% unfavorablity when all Iowans were polled. Among Dems, His 71%favorable/18%unfavorable is significantly trailing Clinton.
The poll included Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer who have made movements as serious candidates, but as you can guess, their numbers are barely registrable.
Republicans
Paul Ryan - Perhaps it should be obvious someone from the National ticket should be at #1 for the party. It also should be noted that this came out right as Ryan announced he was not interested in running (as if that matters yet) and right after the Ryan budget (which per my Facebook feed, pissed off some of his fans, but as the poll was taken, GOPers said that they were fine with his budget given his strong Conservative leanings, and it was a non-factor).
He was the favorite with Tea party and second favorite among born again Christians, which are strong numbers. Among Republicans - 73% favorable/10%unfavorable to put him in the #1 position currently,
Mike Huckabee - The 2008 Iowa winner remains in a position of strength. 66% favorable/17% unfavorable among his party and #1 with Born Agains and of course strong support from the tea party. Opponents are planning to attacj his Arkansas record and call him "Tax hike Mike".
Rick Santorum - 58% favorable/21% unfavorable with Republicans. Clearly, how Santorum does depends on whether Huckabee gets in (and it looks like Mike will), but 2012's caucus winner got a lot of good will from time spent her in the last cycle.
Rick Perry 55% favorable/19% unfavorable - Critics are calling this a case of absence makes the heart grow fonder as he finished fifth in 2012 and these numbers reflect higher than many expected.
Jeb Bush 51% favorable/26% unfavorable with Republicans.- saddled with a bad name and a moderate attitude, Bush has second highest unfavorable rating with his party. He is the least liked candidate by self-identified tea partiers.
Chris Christie 51% favorable/30% unfavorable - the highest unfavorable ratings in his party and a tie for fifth on the plus column, Christie's road to nomination is a much bumpier route than you might imagine. He scores well with Independents (Only HillRod does better with that crowd).
Rand Paul 51% favorable/23% unfavorable - Critics say Paul gets a built in crowd because of his dad 9of course), but that also his ceiling (We'll see).
Scott Walker 46% favorable/11% unfavorable Walker has the biggest gray area which could work for him. 43% sure of Republicans said that they are 'not sure' what they think of the Wisconsin Governor.
Marco Rubio 46% favorable/15% unfavorable Prevailing thought and my experience seems to indicate Rubio's stand on immigration will kill any chance he has.
Ted Cruz - 46% favorable/17% unfavorable Cruz seems to have worked the hardest in 2013, though the fact he hadn't stepped a foot into the state before that means a bit of an uphill battle. While, the low returns from his time here seems discouraging, 375 of GOPers fall into the 'Not Sure' category.
