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bedsitter23I haven't spent a lot of time doing what I do best most which is talking Political Campaign.
That said we have enough announced candidates, said announced candidates are making weekly visits to Iowa, and we even have billboards (Ben Carson) and PAC tv ads (A Global Warming group hitting hard against Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, while anti-NSA ads have done the impossible and got the ACLU and Tea Party to team up)
Which brings us to the May 2015 Qunnipac College Poll. There are many polls that will come out, but I like the Qunnipac poll about the best. The reason why is because it reminds me of those College statistics classes. It reminds me of the College Stat class that would cause you to change your major just so you wouldn't have to take that class.
But for politics, I love the detail.
let's get our hands dirty in the numbers.
Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
Walker 21%
Rubio 13%
Paul 13%
Cruz 12%
Huckabee 11%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Christie 3%
Perry 3%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
So let's talk.
QU last polled in February, so we can talk trends. in that poll, Walker had 25% and looked to have no competition. Bush was at 10% which seemed like he might be the biggest competition, though others did poll better. Paul was at 13% , Carson was at 11%, and Huckabee was at 11%
It is interesting to note that Bush has all but dropped out of the Top tier. Yet, those in the Top tier did not thing to do to move their numbers. The real gainers seem to be Cruz and Rubio. While I feel Carson has momentum, the number seem to say the opposite.
What the QU poll does best is go beyond the numbers, and here is what that says: Walker and Cruz are far away the faves of the Tea Party (both poll 26% in that group, Paul trails with 11%). Walker is the favorite among Evangelicals (18%), but Cruz also does better than expected here trailing Huckabee by one percent (17%, 16%). As we move towards Moderate and Liberal (they still exist?) Republicans, Perry and Paul do well.
Because the Caucus is such a weird exercise, it's second choices that are important.
Again, Cruz and Rubio unexpectedly (to me) emerge as real contenders.
Rubio 15%
Walker 13%
Cruz 10%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%
Again, this is a spot in February, where Bush looked strong, and Cruz and Rubio trailed far behind more established candidates like Huckabee, Paul and Perry
Since more than one preference is important in the caucus, polling for a persons top 1 and 2 picks may be the most accurate way to poll, so QU adds them up (Because of the methodology, numbers dont add up to 100%)
Walker 33%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 22%
Paul 20%
Huckabee 16%
Carson 15%
Bush 12%
Christie 7%
Perry 7%
Fiorinia 6%
Santorum 6%
Again, Rubio has the hot hand, polling at 9% in Feb, while Cruz was at 11%. In February, it looked like Bush, Carson or Paul would emerge as the alternative to Walker. Now, it seems like it will be Rubio or Cruz.
QU asks if there is any candidates that you would never support, and it's pretty much what you expect - Bush 25%, Christie 20%, Paul 10%
It's hard to get elected if a large section of the voting bloc doesn't like you, so QU asks about Favorability.
Both Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have higher Unfavorable responses than Favorable ones, with 52% of all Iowa Republicans polled saying Christie isn't Conservative enough.
Eight candidates poll above 50% in Favorability
Rubio 69%
Huckabee 64%
Walker 59%
Paul 59%
Cruz 59%
Santorum 56%
Carson 53%
Perry 51%
But half of these have significant percentages of people who have an unfavorable opinion
Perry 30%
Santorum 28%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 23%
Cruz 19%
Walker 11%
Rubio 9%
Carson 9%
So, I didn't expect Cruz to be in the race, but there he is. I would say this went from a 3-Person race (Walker, Bush, and a third choice probably Paul or Carson) to a 3 person race of Walker, Rubio, and Cruz with Carson still looking like a wild card.
In what is probably relevant for polling question, though it certainly sounds more like a "sh*t and giggles" type of question, Barack Obama scored a 93% unfavorable rating from Iowa Republicans. Both Dubya Bush and HW Bush meanwhile enjoy 80% favorability
QU released the Democrat results the next day, and at this point, I don't see much use in spending too much time with these numbers. It should be noted that Bernie Sanders had just announced his candidacy halfway through the week of the polling process, while Martin O'Malley had not yet announced his campaign.
Clinton 60%
Sanders 15%
Biden 11%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 3%
It should be noted that the May poll did not include Elizabeth Warren as a choice. In February, she polled at 19%. Bernie Sanders seems the most obvious recipient of the change (Sanders was at 5% in Feb, trailing Clinton at 61%, Warren, and Biden at 7% at that time.)
Biden predictably does well as a second choice.
Biden 33%
Clinton 20%
O'Malley 11%
Sanders 10%
Webb 3%
Chafee 2%
It's perhaps good news for O'Malley who wants to be seen as the prime competition against Hillary.
Among Dems, Hillary's favorability is 83%, and unfavorable is 11%; while Biden is 79-15, which seems to say advantage Hillary.
195 say Hillary is not liberal enough, which is maybe her only area of concern.
Among Iowa Dems, on the Obama favorability question, 86% say favorable, while 11% say unfavorable. As far as Bill Clinton, the numbers are practically are the same 87-10
That said we have enough announced candidates, said announced candidates are making weekly visits to Iowa, and we even have billboards (Ben Carson) and PAC tv ads (A Global Warming group hitting hard against Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, while anti-NSA ads have done the impossible and got the ACLU and Tea Party to team up)
Which brings us to the May 2015 Qunnipac College Poll. There are many polls that will come out, but I like the Qunnipac poll about the best. The reason why is because it reminds me of those College statistics classes. It reminds me of the College Stat class that would cause you to change your major just so you wouldn't have to take that class.
But for politics, I love the detail.
let's get our hands dirty in the numbers.
Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
Walker 21%
Rubio 13%
Paul 13%
Cruz 12%
Huckabee 11%
Carson 7%
Bush 5%
Christie 3%
Perry 3%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
So let's talk.
QU last polled in February, so we can talk trends. in that poll, Walker had 25% and looked to have no competition. Bush was at 10% which seemed like he might be the biggest competition, though others did poll better. Paul was at 13% , Carson was at 11%, and Huckabee was at 11%
It is interesting to note that Bush has all but dropped out of the Top tier. Yet, those in the Top tier did not thing to do to move their numbers. The real gainers seem to be Cruz and Rubio. While I feel Carson has momentum, the number seem to say the opposite.
What the QU poll does best is go beyond the numbers, and here is what that says: Walker and Cruz are far away the faves of the Tea Party (both poll 26% in that group, Paul trails with 11%). Walker is the favorite among Evangelicals (18%), but Cruz also does better than expected here trailing Huckabee by one percent (17%, 16%). As we move towards Moderate and Liberal (they still exist?) Republicans, Perry and Paul do well.
Because the Caucus is such a weird exercise, it's second choices that are important.
Again, Cruz and Rubio unexpectedly (to me) emerge as real contenders.
Rubio 15%
Walker 13%
Cruz 10%
Carson 9%
Paul 8%
Again, this is a spot in February, where Bush looked strong, and Cruz and Rubio trailed far behind more established candidates like Huckabee, Paul and Perry
Since more than one preference is important in the caucus, polling for a persons top 1 and 2 picks may be the most accurate way to poll, so QU adds them up (Because of the methodology, numbers dont add up to 100%)
Walker 33%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 22%
Paul 20%
Huckabee 16%
Carson 15%
Bush 12%
Christie 7%
Perry 7%
Fiorinia 6%
Santorum 6%
Again, Rubio has the hot hand, polling at 9% in Feb, while Cruz was at 11%. In February, it looked like Bush, Carson or Paul would emerge as the alternative to Walker. Now, it seems like it will be Rubio or Cruz.
QU asks if there is any candidates that you would never support, and it's pretty much what you expect - Bush 25%, Christie 20%, Paul 10%
It's hard to get elected if a large section of the voting bloc doesn't like you, so QU asks about Favorability.
Both Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have higher Unfavorable responses than Favorable ones, with 52% of all Iowa Republicans polled saying Christie isn't Conservative enough.
Eight candidates poll above 50% in Favorability
Rubio 69%
Huckabee 64%
Walker 59%
Paul 59%
Cruz 59%
Santorum 56%
Carson 53%
Perry 51%
But half of these have significant percentages of people who have an unfavorable opinion
Perry 30%
Santorum 28%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 23%
Cruz 19%
Walker 11%
Rubio 9%
Carson 9%
So, I didn't expect Cruz to be in the race, but there he is. I would say this went from a 3-Person race (Walker, Bush, and a third choice probably Paul or Carson) to a 3 person race of Walker, Rubio, and Cruz with Carson still looking like a wild card.
In what is probably relevant for polling question, though it certainly sounds more like a "sh*t and giggles" type of question, Barack Obama scored a 93% unfavorable rating from Iowa Republicans. Both Dubya Bush and HW Bush meanwhile enjoy 80% favorability
QU released the Democrat results the next day, and at this point, I don't see much use in spending too much time with these numbers. It should be noted that Bernie Sanders had just announced his candidacy halfway through the week of the polling process, while Martin O'Malley had not yet announced his campaign.
Clinton 60%
Sanders 15%
Biden 11%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 3%
It should be noted that the May poll did not include Elizabeth Warren as a choice. In February, she polled at 19%. Bernie Sanders seems the most obvious recipient of the change (Sanders was at 5% in Feb, trailing Clinton at 61%, Warren, and Biden at 7% at that time.)
Biden predictably does well as a second choice.
Biden 33%
Clinton 20%
O'Malley 11%
Sanders 10%
Webb 3%
Chafee 2%
It's perhaps good news for O'Malley who wants to be seen as the prime competition against Hillary.
Among Dems, Hillary's favorability is 83%, and unfavorable is 11%; while Biden is 79-15, which seems to say advantage Hillary.
195 say Hillary is not liberal enough, which is maybe her only area of concern.
Among Iowa Dems, on the Obama favorability question, 86% say favorable, while 11% say unfavorable. As far as Bill Clinton, the numbers are practically are the same 87-10
