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bedsitter23As you know Iowa features an extended election season because of the caucus. As you know, the next election starts the day after the last one ended.
You may or may not know that Iowa is a swing state, so the general election tends to be a heated affair as well.
Iowa doesn't particularly have the prestige (and certainly not the electoral votes) of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Still, as campaigns base strategy on the kind of arithmetic that looks at all possibilities, Iowa becomes a state highly in play.
Combine in that Iowa tends to split evenly between Redder-than-Crimson Steve King territory in the agricultural west and the Blue-loyal cities of Des Moines and the college towns of Ames and Iowa City.
Results don't get much closer than this
2008- D53%R44%
2004- R50% D49%
2000-D49%R48%
In a certain fashion, the general election start with the caucus.
By all reasoning, this caucus should have been a one-sided attack on Obama. Instead, it played out as Mitt vs the anti-Mitts. The focus on attacking Obama was replaced by ads attacking Newt, Rick Perry and Romney.
It also should be noted that it was no secret Mitt wanted to skip Iowa altogether. With Iowa being a 'purple' stat, that was not doable. Mitt spent a lot of time and money for a losing effort here in 2008. His time and money spent for the last cycle was minimal, with Mitt usually sending his sons to do all of the mandatory campaign appearances. Spoiler alert: it's going to hurt him here.
In any case, the general election has started here. Joe Biden, Michelle Obama, and even Barrack have made appearances here, which clearly are re-election motivated.
Now, the last week, Obama has started running his first ads here.
It wasn't uncalled for. For the last few weeks, the Koch Bros' Crossroads PAC has run a pretty damning ad that blames Obama for rising gas prices. Among other things, it says that Obama is taking credit for Bush-era policies, has foolishly voted against beneficial drilling policies, and that Obama's Secretary of Transportation does not have a car.
Obama's first ad here is a counterstrike at the swipes against him. It goes after the Republican superpacs with the claim that "when you see those ads, know they are paid for by big oil.
Check it out here.
The ad says if when you see an ad attacking Obama on oil policy, it is because that ad was paid for by Big Oil companies. The reason being that the Big Oil companies will pay more taxes under Obama, but would get tax breaks in a Romney administration.
Obama's positives are that he is forcing a more gas-efficient car on the market and spending money on renewable energy (while increasing oil production).
My verdict is that it this seems like a forgettable first salvo for the November election. Advantage would seem to be the GOP. I tend to believe that gas prices are advantage Romney. I also think the average American supports drilling wherever it may be- Arctic, off-shore, and Continental plate- and tend to think of the Democrats are stuck with the image that some rare breed of otter is preventing a range of drilling and abundant oil and dirt cheap gas.
That said, I guess this ad is better than it looks. If Obama just took the punches from the Kochs and the superpac's, they eventually might do damage. After all, whoever gets the blame for rising gas prices is going to get hurt.
Obama does well by aligning Romney with rich oil companies and rich campaign donors. he wins when he draws those comparisons. Especially after the BP spill, oil companies tend to be the villain, and many voters may tend to blame greedy businessmen for gas prices as opposed to the president. if it becomes Obama vs BP, Obama will tend to win that argument.
We will see a lot of developments, but you can clearly see the election is on.
Real Clear Politics says there are 13 states in play, and those are the battleground states that will decide the election. Obama, for many months led statewide polling, (Aug 49-39, Oct 43-40, Nov 46-39) though a month out of the caucus, the Des Moines Register had Romney ahead 46-44%. If I had to guess, I would say things have started to tilt back in favor of the Dems.
I will make sure you stay informed.
You may or may not know that Iowa is a swing state, so the general election tends to be a heated affair as well.
Iowa doesn't particularly have the prestige (and certainly not the electoral votes) of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Still, as campaigns base strategy on the kind of arithmetic that looks at all possibilities, Iowa becomes a state highly in play.
Combine in that Iowa tends to split evenly between Redder-than-Crimson Steve King territory in the agricultural west and the Blue-loyal cities of Des Moines and the college towns of Ames and Iowa City.
Results don't get much closer than this
2008- D53%R44%
2004- R50% D49%
2000-D49%R48%
In a certain fashion, the general election start with the caucus.
By all reasoning, this caucus should have been a one-sided attack on Obama. Instead, it played out as Mitt vs the anti-Mitts. The focus on attacking Obama was replaced by ads attacking Newt, Rick Perry and Romney.
It also should be noted that it was no secret Mitt wanted to skip Iowa altogether. With Iowa being a 'purple' stat, that was not doable. Mitt spent a lot of time and money for a losing effort here in 2008. His time and money spent for the last cycle was minimal, with Mitt usually sending his sons to do all of the mandatory campaign appearances. Spoiler alert: it's going to hurt him here.
In any case, the general election has started here. Joe Biden, Michelle Obama, and even Barrack have made appearances here, which clearly are re-election motivated.
Now, the last week, Obama has started running his first ads here.
It wasn't uncalled for. For the last few weeks, the Koch Bros' Crossroads PAC has run a pretty damning ad that blames Obama for rising gas prices. Among other things, it says that Obama is taking credit for Bush-era policies, has foolishly voted against beneficial drilling policies, and that Obama's Secretary of Transportation does not have a car.
Obama's first ad here is a counterstrike at the swipes against him. It goes after the Republican superpacs with the claim that "when you see those ads, know they are paid for by big oil.
Check it out here.
The ad says if when you see an ad attacking Obama on oil policy, it is because that ad was paid for by Big Oil companies. The reason being that the Big Oil companies will pay more taxes under Obama, but would get tax breaks in a Romney administration.
Obama's positives are that he is forcing a more gas-efficient car on the market and spending money on renewable energy (while increasing oil production).
My verdict is that it this seems like a forgettable first salvo for the November election. Advantage would seem to be the GOP. I tend to believe that gas prices are advantage Romney. I also think the average American supports drilling wherever it may be- Arctic, off-shore, and Continental plate- and tend to think of the Democrats are stuck with the image that some rare breed of otter is preventing a range of drilling and abundant oil and dirt cheap gas.
That said, I guess this ad is better than it looks. If Obama just took the punches from the Kochs and the superpac's, they eventually might do damage. After all, whoever gets the blame for rising gas prices is going to get hurt.
Obama does well by aligning Romney with rich oil companies and rich campaign donors. he wins when he draws those comparisons. Especially after the BP spill, oil companies tend to be the villain, and many voters may tend to blame greedy businessmen for gas prices as opposed to the president. if it becomes Obama vs BP, Obama will tend to win that argument.
We will see a lot of developments, but you can clearly see the election is on.
Real Clear Politics says there are 13 states in play, and those are the battleground states that will decide the election. Obama, for many months led statewide polling, (Aug 49-39, Oct 43-40, Nov 46-39) though a month out of the caucus, the Des Moines Register had Romney ahead 46-44%. If I had to guess, I would say things have started to tilt back in favor of the Dems.
I will make sure you stay informed.
