Apr. 21st, 2012

bedsitter23: (Default)
The liberal pacs are getting in on the action after months of GOP attacks on Obama.

The most recent ad is based off a recently re-circulated picture of Willard and friends at Bain Capital.



I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this is a bad idea for the Democrats.

No?

Let me explain.

This photo actually makes Romney look fun.

Americans like cash and they love the idea of spending it frivolously.  I forget the name of the philosopher who said "Riches can make the enjoyment of life that much better." 

We love rappers who flash cash (and the long-haired rock stars who preceded them).  Mitt needs a bit more of this.  Let's face it- we love the idea that could be us.  Let's face it, Lil Wayne could have won the GOP nomination easily and he still has less baggage than Newt Gingrich.

Still, that's where Mitt can't win.  We all know Mitt is rich, but he's not fun.  We know what happens when he tries to be "Urban".

Romney can't escape that he's not hip in the slightest.  He's Carter Pewterschmidt.  He's Thurston Howell III.  He's not wealthy and fast.  He's not Tony Stark (who would easily win the GOP nomination); he's J Jonah Jameson.  He's 2012-era Hugh Hefner, not 60s-era Hef.

There's not only room for - there's practically a begging for a rich alpha male with libertarian leanings on a national political stage.  Someone who likes driving fast on drugs while getting his wing-wang squeezed and not spilling his drink.

Sadly, I suspect PJ O'Rourke himself would tell you that a person like this simply can't exist in a post-Palin/Beck/Brownback/Santorum/Bachmann Republican Party.  The current GOP is so staid that it makes Mitch Daniels look like Charlie Sheen.
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Still, let's not miss the bigger point.  Americans are fine with money, and acually love people with money.  We aren't ever really that mad when a favorite sports star makes their next money grab.

I won't pretend that Romney could pull off the 'populist billionaire' meme like Warren Buffet or Ross Perot; but at least be philanthropic or inventive (or failing that adventurous and fun).  Some of our favorite people are super-rich- Gates, Jobs, Branson, Cuban.  Meanwhile, when we think of Romney- why do we picture Bernie Madoff?

So, I can't finish without mentioning Donald Trump.  The Donald fires people on a weekly basis.  Willard fires people and loves it.  Still, their public images couldn't be further apart.

It will come down to this.  The President is someone people wants to have a beer with.  It's an overused meme, for sure, but I would say it's been 100% for every election I can remember- Carter over Ford, Reagan over Carter and Mondale, HW over Dukakis, Clinton over HW and Dole, W over Gore and Kerry, and Obama over McCain (Before you send me a comment, I will say if Gore had an ounce of personality, Florida wouldn't have happened- in sports betting, they call that "not covering the spread")

This brings us to the inevitable, and maybe the secret to all of this.  Romney won't win because he can't be fun (Romney actually won't win because Red Staters don't think he's a real Christian, but hear me out)- the guy doesn't drink.  Those wild teenage years of Willard Mitt Romney have been revealed as one singular cigarette and a swig of a beer (Yes, you can be a teetotaler and can be cool, but Mitt couldn't pull off an impression of CM Punk or Ian MacKaye).

So note to any liberal-leaning PACs- it's okay to picture Romney as a stuffy, out-of-touch billionaire (though please note this picture isn't really real); however I wouldn't show anything that remotely suggests Willard might be fun.


bedsitter23: (Default)
Last month, the Des Moines Register ran a headline story in their Sunday paper which tells who spent what where during the 2012 caucus.  It is fascinating ephemera.

The campaigns spent 2.4 million dollars in tv ads on Des Moines-area network television.  These are the shows that were picked out to be advertised on and by whom.

Probably oddly to anyone outside the state, the local CBS affiliate dominates the scene like nothing I have ever seen.  Half of the tv ads were bought there.  Also, Rick Perry ran nearly half of the ads on the way to fifth place finish.  I clearly think Iowans were sick of seeing his face every ten minutes.

There seems to be some missed opportunities of course ("I am the candidate who backs Sci-Fi shows in Prime Time") and irony (Despite the hard position on family values, these candidates have no problem spending money on Ellen and Desperate Housewives)

Here's the numbers:

Rick Perry
Spent on local network tv in the Des Moines area: $908,357
Spots run on local network tv: 3,086
Some of his favored shows: Big Bang Theory (syndicated version), Two and a Half men, X factor, Judge Judy, 30 Rock, NFL, General Hospital
Other shows of note: Letterman, Fringe, Ellen, Modern Family, Survivor season finale, Iowa state Men's Basketball,Terra Nova, Desperate Housewives, Ag Day, CBS GOP debate
Last big push: Revenge, Bachelor, New years Rockin' Eve, syndicated Big Bang Theory episodes, soap operas


Ron Paul
Spent: $639,367
Spots run: 1,108
Some of his favored shows: Local news, World news, Two and a Half men, Today Show, Good Morning America
Other shows of note:  Paul spent $1500 on ads for I want A Dog For Christmas Charlie Brown; Wheel of Fortune, Judge Judy, Dr Phil, Early Show,  Fox news shows, Face the nation, This Week with George Stephanapolous, Inside Edition, House
Last big push: Half of the money spent was in December- Outback Bowl, Letterman, Football, Dr Phil, news


Mitt Romney
Spent: $413,529 (all in December)
Spots run: 769
Some of his favored shows: Two and a Half men, Big Bang Theory, NFL, Today Show, Good Morning America, Nightline, Local news, World news
Other shows of note:  , Dr Phil, Live with Regis and Kelly, Desperate Housewives, Ellen, Iowa men's basketball coach's show, Cops, Inside Edition, America's Funniest Home Videos, Jeopardy,  Survivor season finale
Last big push: 100s of spots on news and football games


Tim Pawlenty
Spent: $191,700 (all in July and August)
Spots run: 691
Some of his favored shows:  Local news, Ag Day (around 5:40 AM), Time of Grace (ministry show)
Other shows of note:   Dr Phil, Live with Regis and Kelly, Fox news shows, Face the nation, This Week with George Stephanapolous,Letterman, Meet the Press, Judge Judy, Young & the Restless, Wheel of Fortune 
Last big push: Pawlenty ran 691 ads before the Ames Straw Poll.  The winner (Bachmann) ran 90 in the same time frame.  Like Perry, familiarity breeds contempt.


Newt Gingrich
Spent: $169,571 (all in December)
Spots run: 305
Some of his favored shows: Local news, World news
Other shows of note:  , Dr Phil, NFL, Big Bang Theory, This Week with George Stephanapolous,Letterman, Meet the Press, Wheel of Fortune, Good Morning America, Today Show
Last big push: Iowa State Basketball games, Outback Bowl, The Tournament of Roses parade, The Bachelor, The View


Michele Bachmann
Spent: $47,098
Spots run: 104 (14 in July, 76 in August, 14 in December)
Some of her favored shows:  Fox news Sunday, local news, Face the Nation, This Week with George Stephanapolous, Meet the Press, Today Show, Good Morning America
Last big push: 14 ads during local news


Barack Obama
Spent: $32,649
Spots run: 121
Some of his favored shows:  Fox news Sunday, local news, world news, Big bang Theory, Judge Mathis, Maury Povich, Ellen, Judge Judy, Two and a Half Men, NFL
Last big push: None- Obama's ads ran after the caucus was over- mostly during the week of Jan 20-26


Randall Terry (anti-abortion activist running for Democrat nomination)
Spent: $3,060
Spots run: 3 (June 9, Dec 7)
Some of his favored shows: local news

Rick Santorum
Spent: $0 (some ads on cable tv, no ads on local network tv)
Last big push: Santorum's PAC ran ads here in the finals days up to the caucus


Herman Cain
Spent: $0 (some ads on cable tv, no ads on local network tv)
Last big push: n/a- The Register's Rick Haus says that this was a testament to how disorganized cain's campaign was- that the excellent speaker never ran ads on local tv.




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