Caucus Update: ""No one knows what it means, but it's provocative" edition

As I predicted a couple of months ago, Ron Paul is going to win Iowa.  Okay, i have literally made all predictions from Pawlenty to Perry, so all bases are covered.

Still, it does appear to be that way:

Public Policy Polling shows Paul on top.

Paul 24%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 11%
Perry 10%
Santorum 10%
Huntsman 4%
Roemer 2%

With momentum like that, maybe I should run out next Tuesday and vote for Buddy

For the subplots, Bachmann has gained the lead once again over the Tea Party, with Newt dropping falling into third behind Paul.

Interestingly, Paul leads over the Evangelicals (who are split all over the place) with 21%, Romney 16%, Bachmann 16%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 14%, Perry 12%.

Santorum isn't completely out as he is the most favorable candidate, and the winner of the all-important "second choice" candidate.

Paul has remained fairly unscathed from tv ads.  The only one targeting him on television is Perry who has an ad attacking all the congressmen (Newt, Chely, Santourm, Paul), and talking about one of his favorite slogans "the Part Time Congress".  Perry suggests that we cut Congress session time in half, Congressional pay in half, and force all the Senators to get part time jobs (ya rly).

So, essentially Perry would force Congress to get jobs , and we know those jobs would be with with Big Oil and Military.  That would work out just fine.

Meanwhile Perry, Newt, and Mitt get slammed every commercial break.  Perry for getting paid to be governor and picking up a pension for being a retired governor as well for an additional $92k.  Let's face it, someone who spends their time scouring for such loopholes is the kind of diligent person we need in the White House.

Still, I hear that Paul is getting hit on the direct mail front, and I know all the local blowhards who praise him as a fiscal genius have turned their back on him as a racist kook.

The Conservative media has gotten a lot of mileage out of news stories like Paul sent out newsletters in the mid-90s saying there would be a r, and other typical militia/skinhead talking points.  More damning of course, is that Paul said Reagan was a man with failed policies.

I find it a little too hard to hate on Paul by the actions of his followers.  No doubt, I find Bob Weir a genuinely interesting individual, but can't stand Deadheads; nor do i blame Jesus Christ for anything Bob Vander Plats has to say.

Like some of you, I've been following Paul longer than most of his supporters.  I'm not sure that a lot of his supporters actually like him.  it's like Ron Paul is an internet meme, like Chuck Norris or Emo Hitler.  if you like reddit, "forever alone" memes, and the newest tech device, you also must like Paul.

The pre-2005 Paul was the type of person that 'anti-government' types idolized.  He was the type of person who was big with people who frequented gun shows, and the subculture that thought Bo Gritz was the right fit for President.

I do after years of reading forwarded e-mails "written" by George Carlin, Kurt Vonnegut and Bill Cosby, am fully aware that a Ron Paul-themed newsletter, may at the end of the day not express the exact thoughts of Ron Paul.

This CNN article lists a few theories-  including Paul has made similar moves such as addressing the John Birch Society as recently as 2009; or perhaps in the days where David Duke was becoming a national figure, making borderline racist comments was politically advantageous and financially profitable.

Paul has about another week to hang in there and see if he has enough momentum to still win, with a group of people less dedicated to caucusing than Romney, but at least a clear 8-day weather forecast that should bring them.

Caucus Update: "Buy the ticket, take the ride" edition

The thing about the Iowa caucus is that it goes on for two years and then it's suddenyl done.

Where's the souvenirs?

Okay for one, you can buy an endorsement from a major Conservative spokesman.

For those with cash to spare, there's the Ames Straw Poll Experience.   For $18,000, even an absolute nobody can get the largest tent there, a guaranteed main stage speech, and up to four articles written about you in the Des Moines Register.  Can you beat the high score of Thad Mccotter?  35 votes?

Still, this is recession timers, so most of us are stuck with just the t-shirt.



Not that Raygun isn't one of he most awesome companies in Iowa.  Their jokes are probably too Iowacentric for the most of you.  For example, "No Sleep Til Brooklyn (Iowa)" - as worn by Adam Richman on Man vs Food, only is funny if you know where Brooklyn, Iowa is.

Still, as someone whose bookshelves are filled by a real who's who of both parties, whose mail is filled with campaign fliers, and drives by a major campaign Headquarters every day; there are always some kind of souvenirs for the taking.

The book tours are the most obvious.  Right before election time, the major politicians make their way to the local Barnes & Noble and Borders (RIP), you know, just to promote their book.  Gingrich's stop in 2007 and Palin and Pawlenty's multiple stops through Iowa this Spring and Fall, were just obvious "Don't mind us we are just browsing" sojourns to see how many people in Iowa might show up at their events.

Still, those events generally happen before an announcement.   Newt Gingrich has taken this to the next level.

You probably know (duh) that Newton is running for President.  However, you may not be aware that he is out supporting his documentary about Ronald Reagan.

Nothing wrong with that, except he is doing both at the same time in Iowa.

To his credit that means he can run tv ads that show the Gipper and Newt side-by-side, certainly a positive asset if you are a potential Republican Presidential candidate.  Like the Bachmann and Palin movies of four months ago, it's not a campaign ad, but it's just as good.

Of course, where this gets odd is that Gingrich appears to be using his campaign as a way to sell videos.  The confusion comes in when Gingrich sells these in Iowa, and potential voters think they are giving money to the campaign, and they are giving it to Newt directly (where he can spend it how he sees fit, regardless of campaign laws).

I suppose at the end of the day, it's probably not enough to be worked up about (especially Iowans start to abandon the good ship Gingrich (His favorability has went from +31 to +12 to -1 according to PPP numbers) and remember back to when he was a marginal candidate who'd rather spend time in the Mediterranean than in Eastern Iowa).