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I told you I had a way of predicting who would win the November General Election. Here it is. I guarantee it is the most accurate barometer available.
Here is some quick background. When i was a kid, I would pass the time during family road trips by making a tally of the make of every car that my Dad passed or was passed by.
In those days, GM almost always was #1 at the end of the day, and just as sure, Ford was #2. Chrysler/Dodge was often #3, and in those days, much of the time AMC/Jeep was #4. Nissan/Datsun, Honda, Volkswagen, Mazda, and Toyota might creep into the top 4 or 5 (I suspect Toyota would fare a lot better if I did this these days) and if we ventured into richer suburbs, Volvo, BMW or Mercedes might make the list.
I came to the conclusion that I could do the same with bumper stickers today, and I bet I could predict the winner of the election within .01%.
Now, why this doesn't seem scientific. I assure you it is. You see, I live in Iowa, the state that goes first in the nation during primary season, a fact that backs my theory up, and a battleground state in the fall, once again proving its importance.
Now, I drive through the most populous city, a mixture of the urban Blue and the rural Red, with a variety of hipsters, millionaires, soccer moms, nascar dads, the very old, teens and a neverending variety of cultural groups.
Oh, not everyone who votes will put a bumper sticker on their car; but let's face it, it's those with bumper stickers on their cars that will likely vote.
And.... Mitt Romney won. Book it. Done.
Here's my week's tally:
Wednesday: Romney 1
Thursday: Obama 1
Friday: Romney 1, Obama 1
Weekend Trip to Ames: Obama 1
Walk around the Neighborhood: Romney yard-sign 1
Monday: Romney 2, Gary Johnson 1
Tuesday: 0
Totals : Romney 5 or 55%, Obama 3 or 33%, Johnson 1 or 11%
Others receiving votes: Ron Paul 2, Bush/Cheney 1
I'll take questions.
Are you sure you saw all the bumper stickers? Isn't there a possibility you missed a few?
I'm fairly sure that I caught them all, though I suppose there is a margin of error. Usually while I was driving, I was also smoking, eating, shaving, buying and selling stocks, drinking, dealing cards, scanning radio stations, reading and catnapping. However, I feel fairly certain, I got them all.
Well, if this methodology works, then wouldn't the local FM DJ win the election? There are way more radio station bumper stickers than political ones.
I am not arguing that at all. Radio personalities are way more popular than politicians.
What about I vote Pro-life/I vote for Children/ I am a smoker and I vote bumper stickers and the like?
Well, I don't make assumptions, so I didn't take an anti-abortion sticker as a Romney voter, just as I wouldn't take someone with an 'equality' sticker as being pro-Obama. It's a slippery slope. Procedurally, I would tag "Defeat Obama" as a pro-Romney vote (as he is undoubtedly the #1 contender to Obama), but it ends there.
Oh, it would be easy to do, but where does it stop? "Vote for (Republican Senator)Grassley" might seen obvious to connect the dots, but what about Nascar stickers? Phish and Dead stickers? NRA stickers? People who listen to Rock Radio? Talk radio fans? People who own Poodles? Doberman owners? Jesus Fish? Darwin Statements? Union Worker stickers? Vegetarians? Get any closer and I will flick a booger on your windshield? See, it's harder than you think.
Did you really see a Gary Johnson sticker?
Yep.
How many Mitt stickers were on SUVs?
Most, if not all of them. i wish I had kept track.
So this is a can't fail predictor?
Absolutely. I 100% guarantee that if the election were held today, Romney would win. Absolutely guarantee it.
Ok, but Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead, and it's not even close. Romney will be lucky to do as well as McCain, if this keeps up. Explain yourself.
Look, I 100% guarantee the accuracy of my methodology.
Now, there's still a month left before Election Day. If Romney loses and Obama is re-elected in November; well, that's not on me. That is really on him, isn't it?
Here is some quick background. When i was a kid, I would pass the time during family road trips by making a tally of the make of every car that my Dad passed or was passed by.
In those days, GM almost always was #1 at the end of the day, and just as sure, Ford was #2. Chrysler/Dodge was often #3, and in those days, much of the time AMC/Jeep was #4. Nissan/Datsun, Honda, Volkswagen, Mazda, and Toyota might creep into the top 4 or 5 (I suspect Toyota would fare a lot better if I did this these days) and if we ventured into richer suburbs, Volvo, BMW or Mercedes might make the list.
I came to the conclusion that I could do the same with bumper stickers today, and I bet I could predict the winner of the election within .01%.
Now, why this doesn't seem scientific. I assure you it is. You see, I live in Iowa, the state that goes first in the nation during primary season, a fact that backs my theory up, and a battleground state in the fall, once again proving its importance.
Now, I drive through the most populous city, a mixture of the urban Blue and the rural Red, with a variety of hipsters, millionaires, soccer moms, nascar dads, the very old, teens and a neverending variety of cultural groups.
Oh, not everyone who votes will put a bumper sticker on their car; but let's face it, it's those with bumper stickers on their cars that will likely vote.
And.... Mitt Romney won. Book it. Done.
Here's my week's tally:
Wednesday: Romney 1
Thursday: Obama 1
Friday: Romney 1, Obama 1
Weekend Trip to Ames: Obama 1
Walk around the Neighborhood: Romney yard-sign 1
Monday: Romney 2, Gary Johnson 1
Tuesday: 0
Totals : Romney 5 or 55%, Obama 3 or 33%, Johnson 1 or 11%
Others receiving votes: Ron Paul 2, Bush/Cheney 1
I'll take questions.
Are you sure you saw all the bumper stickers? Isn't there a possibility you missed a few?
I'm fairly sure that I caught them all, though I suppose there is a margin of error. Usually while I was driving, I was also smoking, eating, shaving, buying and selling stocks, drinking, dealing cards, scanning radio stations, reading and catnapping. However, I feel fairly certain, I got them all.
Well, if this methodology works, then wouldn't the local FM DJ win the election? There are way more radio station bumper stickers than political ones.
I am not arguing that at all. Radio personalities are way more popular than politicians.
What about I vote Pro-life/I vote for Children/ I am a smoker and I vote bumper stickers and the like?
Well, I don't make assumptions, so I didn't take an anti-abortion sticker as a Romney voter, just as I wouldn't take someone with an 'equality' sticker as being pro-Obama. It's a slippery slope. Procedurally, I would tag "Defeat Obama" as a pro-Romney vote (as he is undoubtedly the #1 contender to Obama), but it ends there.
Oh, it would be easy to do, but where does it stop? "Vote for (Republican Senator)Grassley" might seen obvious to connect the dots, but what about Nascar stickers? Phish and Dead stickers? NRA stickers? People who listen to Rock Radio? Talk radio fans? People who own Poodles? Doberman owners? Jesus Fish? Darwin Statements? Union Worker stickers? Vegetarians? Get any closer and I will flick a booger on your windshield? See, it's harder than you think.
Did you really see a Gary Johnson sticker?
Yep.
How many Mitt stickers were on SUVs?
Most, if not all of them. i wish I had kept track.
So this is a can't fail predictor?
Absolutely. I 100% guarantee that if the election were held today, Romney would win. Absolutely guarantee it.
Ok, but Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead, and it's not even close. Romney will be lucky to do as well as McCain, if this keeps up. Explain yourself.
Look, I 100% guarantee the accuracy of my methodology.
Now, there's still a month left before Election Day. If Romney loses and Obama is re-elected in November; well, that's not on me. That is really on him, isn't it?
