bedsitter23

In Iowa, it's close with the latest quote I have heard, Obama up by eight-tenths.

Meanwhile, Iowa's Secretary of State Matt Schultz is on a crusade to purge, 3,500 people off Iowa's voter's roll.

I am going to err in Schultz's side (a Republican) and say he's doing this for purely good intentions, and not because he is acting like someone who is in a mad dash to try and remove as many Latinos as possible out of the voting population in order to tilt the ballot over to Romney.

Sure, Schultz himself says that voter fraud isn't a problem in Iowa, and indeed voter fraud cases do seem minimal.  Still, Schultz is a man on a mission, and although the courts seem to have prevented Schultz's goal (requiring picture ids to vote) from affecting November's election, I wouldn't count Schultz completely out yet.  (Schultz is a colorful fellow who earlier in the year, said he was being framed by a Democratic strategist who was trying to make it looked like Schultz took cash to endorse Santorum). 

Indeed, three western foriegners-portraying-Iowans were arrested last week (2 Canadians, 1 Mexican).

Canadians...  It's time we put the America back in North America.

i don't really care about voter id laws except 1) I really hate people who post about it on Facebook and 2) I am not sure if it's all as many as Democrats as you think.

Still credit for Strawn's dogged determination. 

He almost gets as much credit for working hard to get Romney elected as Americans For Prosperity.

That PAC is trying to get Romney elected by offering free gas.

Indeed, in Eastern Iowa, AFP at two Kum-and-Gos offered gas up at the price it was when Obama took office.

Cars waited in line for $1.84/gallon gas, surely the biggest and best stunt I have seen in some time, in order to say things aren't better now than they were 4 years ago.

Not sure if it shifted any votes (Coralville being nearthe University of Iowa, and the bluest county in the state), but I am sure it was popular.

I am also told the anti-Obama film 2016 was screening in Western Iowa and those local GOP members were offering cake and punch outside the theater, but somehow that isn't as effective as cheap gas, no matter what Jim Gaffigan says.

All voters are equal in America.

Of course, that's not true.  For those that can remember back to 2000 know that America runs on the Electoral College (and yes, I think the Electoral College could bear Penn State in football this year).  Electors are chosen (and in 48 states, it's a winner-takes all competition) and in theory, these people pledge to vote for who their state chose in the general election.  Each party sends a slate, and they should, in turn, vote for their party's nominee,

Nothing stops them of course, but peer pressure, which is why John Edwards got 1 electoral vote in 2004, Lloyd Bentsen got one vote in 1988, and Geraldine Ferraro one vote in 1984.  They are called Faithless Electors.

The big news today is about Melinda Wadsley, an elector who was undoubtedly pressured to resign, and in fact resigned because she wasn't going to vote for Mitt Romney, and had planned (should Iowa have went Red) to cast for Ron Paul.

It's a testament to Paul that his campaign was the most organized in getting supporters in key positions, despite a distant third place finish.

I can't imagine that Obama doesn't win (He has a 10-point advantage in Michigan, and has margin-of-error leads in Ohio and Florida), but let's consider this new angle. 

There are three electors who have made comments that sound a bit noncommittal.

Ken Eastman says he is "undecided at this point" and "pretty disgusted" with the GOP.  He is a Ron Paul guy.

Billie Zimmerman says Paul is the only candidate who can save the country.  Jessie Law, is another Paul supporter who says he might not be fully behind Romney, but "just want(s) to beat Obama".

There are additional three, who likely will fall in line, but have made comments that might cause some notice.

Ken Searles says he might vote for Paul as a protest, but only if the vote wouldn't change the election.  Kathleen Miller says something similar, and Iowa's Kurt Brown says he is "99 percent" behind Romney, but looking into the rules.  He caucused for Santorum.

All six of these electors are in red or purple states- Texas, Alaska. Iowa, and Nevada- so should it come down to the last vote, it could change history.  Three of the electors mentioned arelocated in Nevada which has a law that they must vote for the party's nominee, though there is no punishment associated with the law, and it's hard to say how it would be enforced.

(Much of this post is based on news from the Des Moines Register)

The Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich has been covering the convention and if you didn't get the idea from Chris Christie, well, this might be about 2016.

A lot of focus has been put on Rand Paul, but it is apparent that he might not end up being the beneficiary of his father's supporters down the line.

I think it's fair.  He's got a bit of a Julian Lennon vibe to him.  I can't get excited by him.

Ryan, Scott Walker, and Ted Cruz were singled out as faves with the Iowa conventioneers.  Cruz (despite not yet being elected) seems to be the big winner, driving an hour to meet with the Iowa delegates.  Indeed, one gets the early impression that he might be the next Tea Party banner carrier.  Well, he already is, I suppose, but will he pull a Christine O'Donnell, if he is not successful.

Iowans bemoaned that the strong Paul support scared a lot of big names away, though to be fair, it's unseemly to look too ambitious, when ostensibly you are supporting a Romney second term in 2016.

New convention rules were put in place which should have an effect on 2016.  Most importantly, it appears Iowa's first-in-the-nation status looks secure.  The convention rules don't give the candidate the ability to reject delegates (as was discussed), but it does more strongly bind delegates to the actual winner (i.e. you won't get a third place finisher taking 22 out of a possible 28 delegates, because of post-caucus work).

In another bit of GOP-affecting news, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will be on the ballot in Iowa.  There was a protest that invoked the law which says you can only be on the ballot if you have had a convention.  The protest stated that the Libertarian convention was more petition-signing than actual conventioneering.  The bipartisan group that makes such decisions held up the decision to put Johnson in the ballot (Yeah, I was bit surprised that a Republican and a Democrat decided in favor of the 3rd party guy).

Of course, though, many think Johnson will draw away from the GOP (Johnson ran in the caucus as a Republican).  Still, Johnson only got 8 caucus votes, so maybe that fear is overstated.

Last year, the Iowa State fair was the place for politicians- taking place a week before the Ames Straw Poll- it was the place to be, and the Soapbox specifically was where you could meet the people.

It's those hopeless dreamers who have no chance who make the best Soapbox speakers.  Usually, they look like this.



So, little wonder I was most looking forward to David Rosenfeld (pictured above), running for a Congress seat in a redrawn district that pits two incumbents against each other.  The Des Moines Register breaks his speech down.

He gathered a crowd of two (an elderly man and an young boy).  Of course, the State Fair is all about foot traffic, and the Register reports that one stopped to cheer him 9as he defended freedom of speech) and one stopped to yell obscenities at him.

Of course, Rosenfeld's stop was overshadowed by the Big Boys.  There was Paul Ryan being shouted at, whether it was asking if he was going to cut medicare, or simply being called a 'f---ing disgrace'.

Even that wasn't the biggest Fair story.

That was Beergate.

Beer Tent owner and registered Republican Mike Cunningham claimed that Obama cost him $25,000 in beer sales.

I covered this in a previous post, but I feel it is deserving of some follow-up (as done by The Register's Kyle Munson), so here's some back story on the Obama "stealin' my $25,000" and some facts around the Shutting of Bud Tent 123.

-Cunningham's only complaints seem to come after the visit and Sen. Grassley's attention.  Before meeting Obama, he greeted Barack with a "Save water, Drink Beer" t-shirt
-The Bud Tent was closed just over two hours.
-The nearbyJalapeno Pete's (another permanent beer-selling fixture at the Fair) aid he saw no effect in sales due to the President
-Cunningham was allowed to set up his own temporary beer stand near Hairball (think "Rock of Ages") to recoup some of his sales.  Cunningham claims that the President's event coinciding with the wildly popular local Hairball was a big cause of his financial loss.  The Fair also let him discount his beer to $4 from $6 on the next night of the fair.
-Beer sales are done by tickets, so $25,000 in beer sales comes out to 4,166 beers ( 1beer = 1 ticket) or a few thousand beers (2 tickets = 1 larger beer option)
-The Bud Tent hands over 17.5% of their profits to the Fair.  Last year, they paid $105,875 for ten days including two weekends.

Of course, one expects those political stories from the candidates' visits.  still, there was one more Fair story, and unexpectedly, it came from the Main Stage.

Hank Williams Jr. has slowly moved towards the deep end in the last few years, and may have capped that Blue Collar patriotism with this nugget.  "We’ve got a Muslim president who hates farming, hates the military, hates the US – and we hate him!"

I probably shouldn't be mad at Bocephus.  He is the father and the son of two of my all-time favorite artists.  Besides, country radio doesn't play anyone over 40 (let alone 60)  so the job of "Right Wing Nutjob" is a fairly lucrative one all things considered.

Still, I can only imagine this plays to an audience that already thinks that stuff (Hates farming?  Really?), and those disagree with Hank Jr aren't likely to change their mind, and those that agree probably don't think Mitt's a Christian either.

I loved the Fair last year, as it was right before the Ames Straw Poll, and so it was filled with politicos and journalists.  The Soapbox,. of course, being my favorite where front runners, people without a chance, and people who fall in both categories (Newt) stood and talked in front of the people, without a rope, if you will.

I barely looked at the schedule this year, noting all the state's biggest names were going to be there, but none provided much potential (outside of a Socialist Workers candidate running for a state house seat.  that might have been fun).

Both Romney and Obama had booths in the Varied Industries Building, sat across from each other, and in amidst the tables of various colleges, 'As Seen on TV'-style kitchen appliances, hot tubs, and the rest.

At the GOP table, you could enter your name and info in to win a pair of tickets for Iowa's biggest sporting event, the Iowa vs Iowa State football game.  At the Democratic tent, the contest was to win Obama gear.  I considered this a victory for Obama (Romney having to go to great lengths to get supporters) though I wasn't sure.  A friend who is a lifelong Democrat heard my story and said he might head back to the fair just for the chance to win the Iowa/ISU tickets, so I guess the advantage is Romney's.

We all know how Paul Ryan's speech on the soapbox went- heckled and leaving without talking to the media; but the President visited the fair next.

Well, come to find out, you can't just do anything when you are the President.  For starters, Health-conscious Michelle forbade Barack from eating a deep-fried twinkie.  Then the Fair barred Barry from the Bumper cars.  Sure, he had rode on them four years before, but as President, the Fair just wasn't going to take any chances.

While Ryan's fair appearance was a misstep, Obama's looked to be successful as he had a Pork Chop and a Beer.  Of course, Beer Tent owner Mike Cunningham criticized the President by saying the revenue he lost from having to close his shop for a couple of hours wasn't worth the trouble.  Obama ended up buying the first ten people in the area a beer on him, and shooing business Cunningham's way.

Cunningham (a Republican) claims at the end of the day, he lost $25,000 because the Prez preferred a Busch to a Smoothie.  Still, other tent owners in the area said the Presidential visit had no effect on their sales.

Still, if you need the talking point, here goes.  Obama loathes free enterprise.  He hates small businesses and small business owners.  This was all an evil ploy to stick it to the little guy.  Beergate.  Now go and disperse.

Obama's next iowa appearance was less controversial, and Obama dished on the secret White House brewery.

The revelation came incidentally, when a man at the Knoxville coffee shop where Obama stopped today somehow got the president onto the subject of beer, and Obama noted that a sample of the White House’s home brew was just outside.

Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters that Obama gave the man a full bottle of said beer, retrieved from the bus.

In a press gaggle a short time later, White House Spokesman Jay Carney took several questions about the beer, some which he could answer, others he could not.

The beer comes in two varieties, light and dark, Carney said. He has personally sampled the lighter brew, and declared it “refreshing.”

“It is superb,” he said. “It is quite good.”

Does the president himself drink the beer? Indeed he does, Carney said.

And why wasn’t the ultra-local ale served at the famed beer summit at the White House in 2009? Because that was before the brewing began he said.

So, nothing controversial, just an interesting tidbit.  Except for maybe "President Compromises national Security; Reveals Heretofore Secret Brewery" or "President Takes Money From the Hands of American Microbrewers".  Ok, you got it.  Disperse.

As both Obama and Willard have superpacs ready to dump money into Iowa, and as Obama and Willard (and Kumar) plan trips to the Hawkeye State; we know that it's heatin' up.

Not surprisingly, Willard wants to remind you that he was the Olympics guy.  If you didn't know, Romney was in charge of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics (this is an obscure fact like Rudy Guilani was mayor during 9/11).

Since we are in the midst of a buzzworthy Olympics, Willard is trying to strike a chord.  When you think of smiling Gabby Douglas or the dominant LeBron-led Basketballers, think of Mitt.  A good plan.

Willard has got some of the 2002ers to show up in a commercial and tell the World how great Mitt's Olympics were.  One of the biggest names from those games, Kristi Yamaguchi headlines.  Yamaguchi gives a bit of a non-endorsement endorsement.  "Mitt Romney brought a huge sense of hope", she says and the Romney camp says while she hasn't officially backed Romney; she did show up at a ten-year anniversary of the SLC games, and appeared next to him.

Before you think Willard has gotten all hopey and changey, his ad which prominently features Bob Scheiffer talking how this is the worst recovery ever, is still bringing the negative.

I have read about the Obama super-pac's Olympic themed ad  but have not seen it air here (and I don't know that it is supposed to).  In it, Romney is shown supporting his favorite countries- India, China, Switzerland (famous for bank accounts), the Cayman Islands...

Hey-Oh!

I suppose we should expect football themed ads next.  I can't wait.

Things are about the same.

Romney and his superpacs are striking hard with the Solyndra and Stimulus Money going to China attacks.

He also is running an ad which goes something like this (paraphrased terribly):

Obama : "if you have a job, it's because someone created it"

Small Business Owner "I started my own business.  What's up now, Barack?!?  I do what I want.  I'm voting Romney"

Obama is running a new ad which shows him talking to the camera (he's to the left of the screen, so he doesn't seem too creepy) and plays to his strengths which is really connecting with people.  It goes like this (paraphrased terribly):

"Hello!?  You're going to vote for the trickle-down guy?!?!  Were you in coma from 2000-2008?  Has your mind been erased?  I'm going to say a name and it rhymes with Tush-Laney."

Romney as you may know is out of the country.  He is on a visit to the Olympics to show his international side.

Which you probably know by now, because he is blundering terribly and publicly.

In theory, we would be talking veep-stakes right now.

Three potential #2s are making their way to Iowa to rally the troops while the man who would be President is out putting foot in mouth overseas.

Inevitably, one of these three will complete the ticket.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Virginia Gov Bob McDonell will be taking the Romney bus to eastern Iowa (Advantage: Jindal- he supported Romney prior to the Iowa caucus.  plus, he gets more stops).

US Sen from Florida Marco Rubio gets a Saturday night rally in Des Moines, and is the guy Romney had mentioned at a Iowa rally last month.

Consider this a job interview, gentlemen.

Wrapping up other recent news, it will remain to be seen if Romney's anti-wind power comments will hurt him here.  Wind Power is pretty big in Iowa, and though this issue specifically would affect manufacturing that occurs in other state, it's one that will indirectly affect Iowa.  Obama made wind power tax credits a campaign issue here.  You can tell the local pull, because the wind credit extensionis supported by the Republican governor and other prominent GOPers.

I am not saying getting rid of wind subsidies is anywhere as poisonous as being anti-ethanol (John McCain found himself in that spot and essentially wrote off winning the caucus here in 2008).  However, it may be important enough that it could crop up being a deciding factor in some voters' minds.

I made it to the Boone County Fair this weekend. I scored free tickets to see Bomshel. Bomshel is two not unattractive females (one who plays fiddle), and so it is easy to assume that they are part of that second generation that was inspired by the Dixie Chicks. (They were free tickets. Don't judge, GarbageCanMusic). In any case, they are cut out of that same template, which means they really aren't my thing, but at the end of the day, I'd rather watch them than some earnest guy in a cowboy hat. For that matter, I'd rather watch Bomshel than most of the current crop of Nickleback/Daughtry shaved head and tattoed "rawk" bands. The girls had tons of charisma and stage presence, the singer had some impressive pipes (Think of a country version of "Heart" and the backing band blazed.

Of course, while at the fair, I had to check out the local Republicans and Democrats' booths. Like any fair, these booths are manned by a ragtag bunch of volunteers- people who resemble your relatives and coworkers- but given Iowa's importance, any of these guys and gals could end up making one of those big decisions that change the World.

Anyway, this post isn't going to go the way I expected it. See, I fully expected the GOP table to not have any mention of their Presidential candidate. I was wrong, though ,sure enough, there was a poster with Romney's name alongside the rest of the field.

The GOP tent had that Iowa standby- the corn kernel poll - visitors take a kernel of corn and use it to make their opinion known. One poll gave passers by to vote for their favorite anti-Obama cartoon (clipped from the Des Moines Register most likely).

The revelation of course was their poll asking whether Obamacare should be repealed. From a quick look of my eye, it was about 50/50. Now, if I was running the GOP tent, I would have stuffed the ballot, so it looked 80/20 for repeal (I, of course, don't know that the ballot wasn't stuffed and it took that just to make it look even).

In any case, that's the slam dunk the Republicans are banking on, and based on this (very unscientific) poll, that may not be as an obvious public attitude that the GOP thinks it is.

The Democrat booth had lifesize cutouts of Barack and Michelle, and homemade buttons, most with a pro-labor message (It seems neither the DNC nor the RNC is particularly interested in spending money in this particular county).

I had to pick one up, just because, and it references the Romney 'dog on the roof of the car' story, and says "Don't Ride With Romney"



Boone County is the birthplace of Mamie Eisenhower and is in Steve King's district (although you are just getting ankle deep into the true heart of Conservative Western Iowa), which may be an additional bad sign for the "Repeal Obamacare" poll.

King is running for re-election in a heated contest that has become the most money spent in an Iowan Congressional race.  GOP analyst Doug Gross does bring up a point that will be missed by people who do not live here.  he thinks that King being in danger will energize the Evangelicals, and they will also end up voting Romney (though they likely will hold their nose doing so).

All of this news comes out on the heels of good news for Iowa.  The fivethirtyeight blog (affiliated with the New York Times) defended Iowa's first in the state status (and status as a battleground state).  Iowa may not have the demographics, but its voters are politically diverse.

David Yepsen makes the case that Iowa is split equally between Democrats and Republicans, but also as a great deal of independent voters who sway back and forth from election to election.

Iowans are an independence bunch.  Our two senators are both loved and seem to have secure jobs- and couldn't be any different - the proud liberal Tom Harkin and the Conservative icon Charles Grassley.

Everything I have seen shows Obama with a slight edge here, but that element of independence does put this state in play, as most insiders will tell you.

Besides the expected "Obama accomplishments" and "President' Romney's first 100 days" commercials, there's always room for negativity.

Obama is hitting hard on Romney's "outsourcing with Bain Capitol".  Willard has argued that what he did as governor wasn't outsourcing.  What happened was that  American workers lost jobs to Foreign companies.  The jobs stayed with the American companies, but they did go to workers overseas.  At the end of the day, I don't think the American people see much difference- and there's no argument to be made that it's okay to give jobs to Indian and Chinese workers even if they ultimately report to an American CEO.

I think this is something that resonates with the American public in economic times (He also throws in the whole 'saving the American auto industry' thing).  It may be rough that Obama has had three-and-a-half years to fix these things, but it is ultimately a winner for Obama, I think.

Mitt's superpac friends are already out with their "The Health care law is a tax" attacks ads as expected.  meanwhile, Mitt's campaign is calling Obama a dirty campaigner and airing old Hillary Clinton footage from the primary season of 2008 and her saying what a 'vicious liar' Obama is.  Oh snap!

Interesting play (the Obama vs Hillary campaign was brutal, if you recall), though I am not sure how effective it will be (Is it supposed to turn Hillary supporters and women over to Romney?  Is it supposed to convince everyone Obama is just a big meanie?)

Obama is in Iowa next week, and Romney made a stop here a few weeks ago.  That particular visit recalled back to the headlines the story of one Dianne Bauer.

Romney's trip brought him to the eastern Iowa restaurants and cafes he frequented during the caucus season.

Bauer's was one, and she experienced the hurricane that was Willard.  A damaged roof.  Stolen tablecloths.  Broken Personal heirlooms.  She swore she would never let Mitt near her cafe again.

"Stuff got broke. My table cloths they just got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room,"

She says the boom truck she allowed the campaign to borrow to gain access to the roof now has an 8-inch gauge [sic] in it that she'll have to take the time to repair.

The campaign told her to send them an itemized list of anything that was broken, and they would pay for it, but Bauer says that won't fix everything.

"My dad's picture, an emblem my dad gave me, it got broke. Those aren't things you can replace."

Bauer didn't get a in-person apology from the Presidential candidate who would be Keith Moon.  He did call to apologize, but I have seen her interviewed and she took it as an insult "I'm sorry your table cloths got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room"  -Willard reportedly said.

No word on what damage was hailed upon Eastern Iowa in this last late June trip or whether anyone told Romney maybe he should just embrace the rock star image, as it makes him look like something approaching a human being.  Still, I never heard of any reports of cars being driven into swimming pools, so we will just consider that the last option wasn't picked.
 

I should probably give an update on where we are in terms of the 2012 election.

Both Obama and Willard made it out this way and gave speeches.

Team Smear the Queer arrived first and littered a speech with plenty of metaphorical references to Prairie Fires.

Now as a native Midwesterner, Prairie Fires are a big, scary deal.  However, I doubt any Midwesterner would use that metaphor.  It sounds like something cribbed from a Cliff's Notes version of Iowa.

A drought of jobs!  A tornado of socialism!  A ragweed war in Afghanistan!

All of these are more in line with what I would say.

So when Team Pander to the Gay Community arrived, Barry O let out with a "Cow Pie of Distortion" blast.

Advantage: Obama.





(editor's note: I really don't believe Mitt is (still) a gay-hating bully or that Obama's pro-gay marriage statement is solely motivated by campaign strategy.  However, the flamebait was too alluring not to throw in)


- - -



We know we are in full campaign mode as both candidates are running constant ads here.  Both are epic American ideals- Obama with a "His mom woke him up early so he would study hard" story and Willard with a "What President Romney would do on Day 1" proposal.

It also should be noted that SuperPAC mudslinging has been wonderfully bipartisan with the Dems running ads attacking Willard on women issues (aka "Shiny Objects" ) and attacking his job creation performance as Governor of Massachusetts.