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In Iowa, it's close with the latest quote I have heard, Obama up by eight-tenths.

Meanwhile, Iowa's Secretary of State Matt Schultz is on a crusade to purge, 3,500 people off Iowa's voter's roll.

I am going to err in Schultz's side (a Republican) and say he's doing this for purely good intentions, and not because he is acting like someone who is in a mad dash to try and remove as many Latinos as possible out of the voting population in order to tilt the ballot over to Romney.

Sure, Schultz himself says that voter fraud isn't a problem in Iowa, and indeed voter fraud cases do seem minimal.  Still, Schultz is a man on a mission, and although the courts seem to have prevented Schultz's goal (requiring picture ids to vote) from affecting November's election, I wouldn't count Schultz completely out yet.  (Schultz is a colorful fellow who earlier in the year, said he was being framed by a Democratic strategist who was trying to make it looked like Schultz took cash to endorse Santorum). 

Indeed, three western foriegners-portraying-Iowans were arrested last week (2 Canadians, 1 Mexican).

Canadians...  It's time we put the America back in North America.

i don't really care about voter id laws except 1) I really hate people who post about it on Facebook and 2) I am not sure if it's all as many as Democrats as you think.

Still credit for Strawn's dogged determination. 

He almost gets as much credit for working hard to get Romney elected as Americans For Prosperity.

That PAC is trying to get Romney elected by offering free gas.

Indeed, in Eastern Iowa, AFP at two Kum-and-Gos offered gas up at the price it was when Obama took office.

Cars waited in line for $1.84/gallon gas, surely the biggest and best stunt I have seen in some time, in order to say things aren't better now than they were 4 years ago.

Not sure if it shifted any votes (Coralville being nearthe University of Iowa, and the bluest county in the state), but I am sure it was popular.

I am also told the anti-Obama film 2016 was screening in Western Iowa and those local GOP members were offering cake and punch outside the theater, but somehow that isn't as effective as cheap gas, no matter what Jim Gaffigan says.


Pick me

Sep. 18th, 2012 07:04 pm
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I am working on something. You see, everybody has a can't miss prediction on how to know who is going to win the election. So am I. It's coming soon.

There are plenty of ways to draw your best guess.

If you are a minor league baseball team, you offer up Bobbleheads to the first 500 fans, and have them pick which candidate they prefer. Advantage: Obama.

Esquire asked their readers who would win a fistfight. Advantage :Obama.

Still, with Ryan and Biden in Iowa this week, and numerous visits from both candidates, why not ask someone who knows something about political fervor. The Des Moines Register interviewed Tony Polzin, a 20-year old who sells campaign buttons and t-shirts at rallies. Potzin says he is a Republican, but works both parties' rallies. Polzin says he's sold more GOP buttons htis cmpaign cycle. "The Republicans (sell more), they have the money.", he says.

Personally, I wanted to make a prediction off the crane game I saw at the local Wal-Mart.


Piccyfix.com

Of course, despite knowing someone who is tremendously skilled at claw games, I am terrible at them; so you will have to see what I come up with to predict the next President.



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All voters are equal in America.

Of course, that's not true.  For those that can remember back to 2000 know that America runs on the Electoral College (and yes, I think the Electoral College could bear Penn State in football this year).  Electors are chosen (and in 48 states, it's a winner-takes all competition) and in theory, these people pledge to vote for who their state chose in the general election.  Each party sends a slate, and they should, in turn, vote for their party's nominee,

Nothing stops them of course, but peer pressure, which is why John Edwards got 1 electoral vote in 2004, Lloyd Bentsen got one vote in 1988, and Geraldine Ferraro one vote in 1984.  They are called Faithless Electors.

The big news today is about Melinda Wadsley, an elector who was undoubtedly pressured to resign, and in fact resigned because she wasn't going to vote for Mitt Romney, and had planned (should Iowa have went Red) to cast for Ron Paul.

It's a testament to Paul that his campaign was the most organized in getting supporters in key positions, despite a distant third place finish.

I can't imagine that Obama doesn't win (He has a 10-point advantage in Michigan, and has margin-of-error leads in Ohio and Florida), but let's consider this new angle. 

There are three electors who have made comments that sound a bit noncommittal.

Ken Eastman says he is "undecided at this point" and "pretty disgusted" with the GOP.  He is a Ron Paul guy.

Billie Zimmerman says Paul is the only candidate who can save the country.  Jessie Law, is another Paul supporter who says he might not be fully behind Romney, but "just want(s) to beat Obama".

There are additional three, who likely will fall in line, but have made comments that might cause some notice.

Ken Searles says he might vote for Paul as a protest, but only if the vote wouldn't change the election.  Kathleen Miller says something similar, and Iowa's Kurt Brown says he is "99 percent" behind Romney, but looking into the rules.  He caucused for Santorum.

All six of these electors are in red or purple states- Texas, Alaska. Iowa, and Nevada- so should it come down to the last vote, it could change history.  Three of the electors mentioned arelocated in Nevada which has a law that they must vote for the party's nominee, though there is no punishment associated with the law, and it's hard to say how it would be enforced.

(Much of this post is based on news from the Des Moines Register)


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I mentioned the 2016 election yesterday with the assumption that the GOP will need a candidate.  I completely forgot the Democrats will need someone.

This is probably the appropriate place to mention that Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley will be headlining Iowa's biggest Democratic fundraiser, the Harkin Fish Fry.  I know next to nothing about O'Malley, but if he's our next President, you heard it here first.

While Biden and Clinton rumors will always fly, former Iowa Governor and current Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has mentioned he might run in 2016.  Vilsack planned a 2008 run, but was unsurprisingly a nonstarter in a field with Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.

I like Vilsack, and I think he a high ceiling.  On one hand, he's a moderate Midwesterner, and maybe, he will be limited on a national campaign like Gephardt.  Still, i think he has some potential to be a charismatic ex-governor a la Clinton, Dubya, and Huckabee.

Speaking of Democrats, the Indie Rocker-in-Chief is in Des Moines this weekend.  I give him this title because he picked the Decemberists as his opening act in 2008.  In Des Moines, he will be accompanied by Chris Cornell and the National.

I will take those bands over Night Ranger's Jack Blades,Taylor Hicks and Three Doors Down anyday.  (Though, Trace Adkins pumping up the GOP crowd by playing his hit "Marry for the Money" seems oddly appropriate to the Right's message.)

Of course, I can't end without some mention of Clint Eastwood's speech last night (which you probably already know was a conversation with an invisible seated Obama),

Opinions will vary, but I liked Eastwood's speech.  Granted, I liked Eastwood a lot, and I am not unopposed to doing something unconventional.  Clearly, there are some major issues with it. 

For starters, I think it was lost on some of the audience.  Maybe it could have been done a different way, perhaps he could have addressed a picture.  He also implies that Invisible Obama (who already has 50,000 followers on twitter) tells him (Eastwood) to go f--k himself.

At best (my opinion) Clint was compelling.  At worst, he appeared a senile old man.  In either case, by preceding Romney, he stole the night.  While I am sure it seemed a good late-minute surprise, the timing of his "act" couldn't be worse.  Although Romney's speech got good reviews (I tuned out), it seems a secondary story.

Ann Romney called Clint's act "unique", which is the same word you tell someone who has made a bad fashion choice.

Once again, I actually liked Eastwood (and it won;t convince me to pull the lever for Willard), but I've got a feeling that I am in the minority here.

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The Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich has been covering the convention and if you didn't get the idea from Chris Christie, well, this might be about 2016.

A lot of focus has been put on Rand Paul, but it is apparent that he might not end up being the beneficiary of his father's supporters down the line.

I think it's fair.  He's got a bit of a Julian Lennon vibe to him.  I can't get excited by him.

Ryan, Scott Walker, and Ted Cruz were singled out as faves with the Iowa conventioneers.  Cruz (despite not yet being elected) seems to be the big winner, driving an hour to meet with the Iowa delegates.  Indeed, one gets the early impression that he might be the next Tea Party banner carrier.  Well, he already is, I suppose, but will he pull a Christine O'Donnell, if he is not successful.

Iowans bemoaned that the strong Paul support scared a lot of big names away, though to be fair, it's unseemly to look too ambitious, when ostensibly you are supporting a Romney second term in 2016.

New convention rules were put in place which should have an effect on 2016.  Most importantly, it appears Iowa's first-in-the-nation status looks secure.  The convention rules don't give the candidate the ability to reject delegates (as was discussed), but it does more strongly bind delegates to the actual winner (i.e. you won't get a third place finisher taking 22 out of a possible 28 delegates, because of post-caucus work).

In another bit of GOP-affecting news, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will be on the ballot in Iowa.  There was a protest that invoked the law which says you can only be on the ballot if you have had a convention.  The protest stated that the Libertarian convention was more petition-signing than actual conventioneering.  The bipartisan group that makes such decisions held up the decision to put Johnson in the ballot (Yeah, I was bit surprised that a Republican and a Democrat decided in favor of the 3rd party guy).

Of course, though, many think Johnson will draw away from the GOP (Johnson ran in the caucus as a Republican).  Still, Johnson only got 8 caucus votes, so maybe that fear is overstated.

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Iowa announced its delegates today at the GOP Convention.

Remember the caucus?

Mitt Romney won it that night, edging out Rick Santorum.  Then, there was a recount, and Rick had more votes.

Well, Ron Paul won.

Of Iowa's 28 delegates, 22 went to Ron Paul.

Only the six delegates who went to Romney were announced by Iowa's representative delegate Lt Gov Kim Reynolds.

Yeah, that's embarrassing which is why some Republicans want to give the nominee the power to just keep the delegates he want and disavow those who disagree.

Meanwhile back in Iowa, Obama is planning yet another trip to the Hawkeye State (with a trip to Iowa State University, getting out the student vote appears to be high on the list of tasks).  Obama is running an ad which features Clinton asking "What Would Bubba Do?".  Making an ad featuring the Greatest Living President is a no brainer. 

The Republicans have been attacking Obama on Medicare, which seems like a misstep.  They contend that Obamacare robs medicare, and that it is the Republicans who are the saviors of Medicare.

When you pick Paul Ryan as your veep, the claim seems dubious.  Claim you are going to reduce the deficit, claim you are going to lower taxes, but goof luck with claiming you are going to save Medicare.  Polls show that you have got your work cut out if you want to claim the Voucher system is better than what exists now.

In other election news, a couple of theaters here are playing 2016: Obama's America the anti-Fahrenheit 911 for Freepers.  I have heard no buzz on this, but ended up finding a couple of people who saw it.

One was wide-eyed and excited.  "It shows that Obama was born and raised in another country, and so he has a different view of things".  This is someone who I immediately discount on all political discourse.  The guy who goes on about how Obama's first 100 days are the same as Fidel Castro's first 100 days in power in Cuba.  This is the same person who forwards that e-mail about the gay Jesus film that will undoubtedly destroy us all.

The only other person I know who saw it said it was pretty balanced and gave a lot to think about.  I have no idea what that means except perhaps he did see both sides or perhaps was scared of engaging "OMG Obama will mandate our children to watch homosexual Jesus films" guy in conversation. 

"OMG" guy also claims 2016 is pretty good because the guy behind Shawshank Redemption is behind it,  2016 is indeed produced by Gerald Molen, who didn't produce Shawshank, but has an impressive CV that includes Schindler's List and Top Gun.

As far as how the story ends, there's not the extensive polling in Iowa like the kind that goes on during caucus season.  However, the consensus of polls that have been done in recent weeks seem to give Obama a slight (around 1%) edge.

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Last year, the Iowa State fair was the place for politicians- taking place a week before the Ames Straw Poll- it was the place to be, and the Soapbox specifically was where you could meet the people.

It's those hopeless dreamers who have no chance who make the best Soapbox speakers.  Usually, they look like this.



So, little wonder I was most looking forward to David Rosenfeld (pictured above), running for a Congress seat in a redrawn district that pits two incumbents against each other.  The Des Moines Register breaks his speech down.

He gathered a crowd of two (an elderly man and an young boy).  Of course, the State Fair is all about foot traffic, and the Register reports that one stopped to cheer him 9as he defended freedom of speech) and one stopped to yell obscenities at him.

Of course, Rosenfeld's stop was overshadowed by the Big Boys.  There was Paul Ryan being shouted at, whether it was asking if he was going to cut medicare, or simply being called a 'f---ing disgrace'.

Even that wasn't the biggest Fair story.

That was Beergate.

Beer Tent owner and registered Republican Mike Cunningham claimed that Obama cost him $25,000 in beer sales.

I covered this in a previous post, but I feel it is deserving of some follow-up (as done by The Register's Kyle Munson), so here's some back story on the Obama "stealin' my $25,000" and some facts around the Shutting of Bud Tent 123.

-Cunningham's only complaints seem to come after the visit and Sen. Grassley's attention.  Before meeting Obama, he greeted Barack with a "Save water, Drink Beer" t-shirt
-The Bud Tent was closed just over two hours.
-The nearbyJalapeno Pete's (another permanent beer-selling fixture at the Fair) aid he saw no effect in sales due to the President
-Cunningham was allowed to set up his own temporary beer stand near Hairball (think "Rock of Ages") to recoup some of his sales.  Cunningham claims that the President's event coinciding with the wildly popular local Hairball was a big cause of his financial loss.  The Fair also let him discount his beer to $4 from $6 on the next night of the fair.
-Beer sales are done by tickets, so $25,000 in beer sales comes out to 4,166 beers ( 1beer = 1 ticket) or a few thousand beers (2 tickets = 1 larger beer option)
-The Bud Tent hands over 17.5% of their profits to the Fair.  Last year, they paid $105,875 for ten days including two weekends.

Of course, one expects those political stories from the candidates' visits.  still, there was one more Fair story, and unexpectedly, it came from the Main Stage.

Hank Williams Jr. has slowly moved towards the deep end in the last few years, and may have capped that Blue Collar patriotism with this nugget.  "We’ve got a Muslim president who hates farming, hates the military, hates the US – and we hate him!"

I probably shouldn't be mad at Bocephus.  He is the father and the son of two of my all-time favorite artists.  Besides, country radio doesn't play anyone over 40 (let alone 60)  so the job of "Right Wing Nutjob" is a fairly lucrative one all things considered.

Still, I can only imagine this plays to an audience that already thinks that stuff (Hates farming?  Really?), and those disagree with Hank Jr aren't likely to change their mind, and those that agree probably don't think Mitt's a Christian either.

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It's hot and heavy now, with political ads in nearly every commercial stop.

Romney is hitting hard with ads that maintain that President Obama got rid of President Clinton's "Welfare to Work" laws.

This is one of those buzz issues that I think can sway votes, so it's a good play by Romney who really hasn't made a lot of great plays.  For someone as politically astute as me, the first thing I noticed was that Romney was using The Heritage Foundation to support his claims.  To put in perspective, a Republican using the Heritage Foundation as a source would be akin to me saying "I am the smartest person in the world.  Source: my mother".

These attack ads, of course, led to attack ads about attack ads, and Politifact and others say Romney's ads are blatantly false.

I admit I am no expert, but my best understanding of what Obama did was give states more freedom in how they treat welfare laws.  It, of course, is the biggest irony that the party (the Republicans) that want the states to have power over everything (abortion laws, marriage, etc) have a problem with this being a States Rights issue.

Romney has a bit of a Clinton fixation.  He evokes Clinton by using this law, but that is not the first mention of Bubba.  Romney is even using a Clinton quote that Romney "had a stellar business career" in ads to promote himself.

All of this follows Romney using Hillary Clinton footage from her primary fight to claim how dirty of a politicker Obama is.

I am actually not totally against this tactic.  If you can reference someone from another party, you look bipartisan.  It's why Joe Lieberman got popular and Dick Morris has made a career out of it.

There are of course problems.  For starters, if you're going to Clinton and Clinton isn't on board, Clinton will let everyone know that he disagrees with your take

The main point, of course is that no one believes the least that Clinton isn't backing Obama at the end of the day.  Four years ago, this tactic might have worked a little better, but it seems a nonstarter.

Lastly, Willard might consider that there is a lot more footage of his same party opponents attacking him.  Surely, with Santorum, Gingrich, Paul and the Tea Partiers, Romney doesn't want to go there.

Obama, meanwhile seems to be pushing women's issues (which he appears to have an edge on) and wind power.  It is hard to say that Wind Power is as important to Iowa as Corn (or even gauge where it stands in the Iowan conscience), but it gets attention.

You see, wind power in Iowa is not only ubiquitous outside some towns, but in some areas, you could call it dominant.

In Iowa, like ethanol, wind support gets bipartisan support and Obama made the most of his Iowa visit to mention that Romney opposes tax credits for wind power.



Romney meanwhile says the best thing he can do for the Wind Energy industry is that GOP standard, deregulation.

Obama is also hitting Mitt aiming towards prospective and current college students and their parents, playing an ad that prominently displays Romney's quote that if you really want to go to college, you're gonna have to borrow the money from your parents.

Patriotically, Obama and Romney both will suspend negative ads on 9/11, but until then... GAME ON!



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I loved the Fair last year, as it was right before the Ames Straw Poll, and so it was filled with politicos and journalists.  The Soapbox,. of course, being my favorite where front runners, people without a chance, and people who fall in both categories (Newt) stood and talked in front of the people, without a rope, if you will.

I barely looked at the schedule this year, noting all the state's biggest names were going to be there, but none provided much potential (outside of a Socialist Workers candidate running for a state house seat.  that might have been fun).

Both Romney and Obama had booths in the Varied Industries Building, sat across from each other, and in amidst the tables of various colleges, 'As Seen on TV'-style kitchen appliances, hot tubs, and the rest.

At the GOP table, you could enter your name and info in to win a pair of tickets for Iowa's biggest sporting event, the Iowa vs Iowa State football game.  At the Democratic tent, the contest was to win Obama gear.  I considered this a victory for Obama (Romney having to go to great lengths to get supporters) though I wasn't sure.  A friend who is a lifelong Democrat heard my story and said he might head back to the fair just for the chance to win the Iowa/ISU tickets, so I guess the advantage is Romney's.

We all know how Paul Ryan's speech on the soapbox went- heckled and leaving without talking to the media; but the President visited the fair next.

Well, come to find out, you can't just do anything when you are the President.  For starters, Health-conscious Michelle forbade Barack from eating a deep-fried twinkie.  Then the Fair barred Barry from the Bumper cars.  Sure, he had rode on them four years before, but as President, the Fair just wasn't going to take any chances.

While Ryan's fair appearance was a misstep, Obama's looked to be successful as he had a Pork Chop and a Beer.  Of course, Beer Tent owner Mike Cunningham criticized the President by saying the revenue he lost from having to close his shop for a couple of hours wasn't worth the trouble.  Obama ended up buying the first ten people in the area a beer on him, and shooing business Cunningham's way.

Cunningham (a Republican) claims at the end of the day, he lost $25,000 because the Prez preferred a Busch to a Smoothie.  Still, other tent owners in the area said the Presidential visit had no effect on their sales.

Still, if you need the talking point, here goes.  Obama loathes free enterprise.  He hates small businesses and small business owners.  This was all an evil ploy to stick it to the little guy.  Beergate.  Now go and disperse.

Obama's next iowa appearance was less controversial, and Obama dished on the secret White House brewery.

The revelation came incidentally, when a man at the Knoxville coffee shop where Obama stopped today somehow got the president onto the subject of beer, and Obama noted that a sample of the White House’s home brew was just outside.

Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters that Obama gave the man a full bottle of said beer, retrieved from the bus.

In a press gaggle a short time later, White House Spokesman Jay Carney took several questions about the beer, some which he could answer, others he could not.

The beer comes in two varieties, light and dark, Carney said. He has personally sampled the lighter brew, and declared it “refreshing.”

“It is superb,” he said. “It is quite good.”

Does the president himself drink the beer? Indeed he does, Carney said.

And why wasn’t the ultra-local ale served at the famed beer summit at the White House in 2009? Because that was before the brewing began he said.


So, nothing controversial, just an interesting tidbit.  Except for maybe "President Compromises national Security; Reveals Heretofore Secret Brewery" or "President Takes Money From the Hands of American Microbrewers".  Ok, you got it.  Disperse.

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So after Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, and Bob McDonnell made it to Iowa to campaign for Willard; Romney goes ahead and picks Paul Ryan,

Romney is in good shape in Iowa right now.  The latest poll shows Romney with a 46%-44% lead over Obama according to a poll last week from Rasmussen.  5% support someone else, but it doesn't say who.

For the most part, the polls have given Obama a slight advantage, like the Public Policy Poll which had Obama at 48-43 over Romney.  That poll is fun for all it covers including the question "How old do you think Obama and Romney are?" (3% think Obama is under 40.  He is 51.  Only 7% think Romney is 65 or over.  He indeed is 65.  Most have him in the 50s.)

Obama has been busy with 'Romney wants to give millionaires tax cuts" ads and Romney is pulling out footage of Obama saying if he didn't cut the deficit, he'd be a one-term President.

Obama himself is In Iowa making a tour which includes cities he hasn't previously visited.  There's been talk that rising crop prices (yeah, there's a drought, but corn prices should help farmers) will help Obama.  His plan to help beef farmers (the highlight of this visit) should help as well. 

Paul Ryan also made a flying trip to Iowa to hit the State Fair.  The State Fair SoapBox is a forum that really lets the politician face the people (It is where Romney made his "corporations are people" quote.  You thought he would have learned, but Ryan was met with an equal barrage during his stop).

Ryan is going to be a polarizing figure.  He will bring tea party votes (During caucus season, Ryan garnered as much as 9% support in the polls), but he will also (with Wisconsin being relatively close) fuel union votes for the other side.

I can't end things here without bringing up Willard's trip to Iowa where he met with a drought-stricken farmer.  In true Willard style, he met with someone who has it hard- a millionaire who is a real estate magnate, and we're told (helpfully) that he booked acts (including Slipknot, mentioned specifically) at the local Arena.

Romney skipped that farmer's home, which is pretty awesome, in itself- a space-age farm not quite like anything else.

Still, Mitt got some pictures with corn, and that's always what a politician needs if they want to look authentic.



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As both Obama and Willard have superpacs ready to dump money into Iowa, and as Obama and Willard (and Kumar) plan trips to the Hawkeye State; we know that it's heatin' up.

Not surprisingly, Willard wants to remind you that he was the Olympics guy.  If you didn't know, Romney was in charge of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics (this is an obscure fact like Rudy Guilani was mayor during 9/11).

Since we are in the midst of a buzzworthy Olympics, Willard is trying to strike a chord.  When you think of smiling Gabby Douglas or the dominant LeBron-led Basketballers, think of Mitt.  A good plan.

Willard has got some of the 2002ers to show up in a commercial and tell the World how great Mitt's Olympics were.  One of the biggest names from those games, Kristi Yamaguchi headlines.  Yamaguchi gives a bit of a non-endorsement endorsement.  "Mitt Romney brought a huge sense of hope", she says and the Romney camp says while she hasn't officially backed Romney; she did show up at a ten-year anniversary of the SLC games, and appeared next to him.

Before you think Willard has gotten all hopey and changey, his ad which prominently features Bob Scheiffer talking how this is the worst recovery ever, is still bringing the negative.

I have read about the Obama super-pac's Olympic themed ad  but have not seen it air here (and I don't know that it is supposed to).  In it, Romney is shown supporting his favorite countries- India, China, Switzerland (famous for bank accounts), the Cayman Islands...

Hey-Oh!

I suppose we should expect football themed ads next.  I can't wait.

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Last week, Mitt Romney was making his international tour, which meant he left his surrogates to campaign for him.  This has led to some speculation on who is running mate may be.  This discussion does seem to be a preferred one to the discussion about how Mitt's trip went.

Of course, the speculation has been that the 'Follow Friday' list of people Mitt (and by Mitt, I mean his aide) thinks you should start following on twitter are in fact his short list for veep contenders.

Fun fact 1: Many of Mitt's twitter followers may indeed not be real people
Fun fact 2: If you really want to know who Mitt is picking, there is an app for that.

Gov. Bobby Jindal had the most successful trip.  He hit Cedar Rapids and Des Moines and bought everyone Maid-Rites for lunch.  Maid-Rite is a uniquely Iowan thing- a restaurant chain that specializes in loose meat sandwiches  (Think sloppy joes, kinda).  Sure, it's a staple of mothers across the country, but Iowa is the only place I know where it is a concept behind a wildly popular  restaurant.

Vice Presidential candidates get to play the role of pitbull, and Jindal did a pretty good job of that.

“(Obama)’s the most liberal president since Jimmy Carter was in the White House. My second problem with President Obama is that he’s the most incompetent president since Jimmy Carter.I don’t mean any disrespect to Jimmy Carter."


Hey-Oh!

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell joined Jindal outside Iowa City ("The Bob Brigade"), but poor McDonnell hardly got much press in Jindal's shadow.  Jindal is Tom Cruise and McDonnell is Paul Giamatti.  Okay, he's not even Giamatti, he's Peter Gallagher.

Still, Jindal probably had his work cut out for him, if he has veep aspirations. 

Marco Rubio was supposed to be in central Iowa at the same time.  Rubio appears to be everyone's first choice, including the Republican Iowa Governor.

Rubio attempted to get to Iowa on not one, but two planes (both with malfunctions) and was forced to address a GOP rally via cell phone from Albuquerque. 

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Things are about the same.

Romney and his superpacs are striking hard with the Solyndra and Stimulus Money going to China attacks.

He also is running an ad which goes something like this (paraphrased terribly):

Obama : "if you have a job, it's because someone created it"

Small Business Owner "I started my own business.  What's up now, Barack?!?  I do what I want.  I'm voting Romney"


Obama is running a new ad which shows him talking to the camera (he's to the left of the screen, so he doesn't seem too creepy) and plays to his strengths which is really connecting with people.  It goes like this (paraphrased terribly):

"Hello!?  You're going to vote for the trickle-down guy?!?!  Were you in coma from 2000-2008?  Has your mind been erased?  I'm going to say a name and it rhymes with Tush-Laney."

Romney as you may know is out of the country.  He is on a visit to the Olympics to show his international side.

Which you probably know by now, because he is blundering terribly and publicly.

In theory, we would be talking veep-stakes right now.

Three potential #2s are making their way to Iowa to rally the troops while the man who would be President is out putting foot in mouth overseas.

Inevitably, one of these three will complete the ticket.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Virginia Gov Bob McDonell will be taking the Romney bus to eastern Iowa (Advantage: Jindal- he supported Romney prior to the Iowa caucus.  plus, he gets more stops).

US Sen from Florida Marco Rubio gets a Saturday night rally in Des Moines, and is the guy Romney had mentioned at a Iowa rally last month.

Consider this a job interview, gentlemen.

Wrapping up other recent news, it will remain to be seen if Romney's anti-wind power comments will hurt him here.  Wind Power is pretty big in Iowa, and though this issue specifically would affect manufacturing that occurs in other state, it's one that will indirectly affect Iowa.  Obama made wind power tax credits a campaign issue here.  You can tell the local pull, because the wind credit extensionis supported by the Republican governor and other prominent GOPers.

I am not saying getting rid of wind subsidies is anywhere as poisonous as being anti-ethanol (John McCain found himself in that spot and essentially wrote off winning the caucus here in 2008).  However, it may be important enough that it could crop up being a deciding factor in some voters' minds.

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It, of course, is starting to get deep in the way of political ads.

The ads are mostly negative, and the basis of the majority of them is that 'the other guy' shipped job overseas.

Obama accuses Romney of sending jobs overseas at Bain, and if not that (since it appears to be in dispute) , then he also sent call center jobs to india, when he was Governor of Massachusetts.

The Romney camp accuses Obama of using stimulus money as incentive to Chinese companies.

Romney is putting Obama on blast with his ad which features three news leaders giving negative comments about Obama. Prominently featured is Bob Scheiffer.

"When the President was elected, he talked about hope and change. Whatever happened to hope and change? Now, it seems he is just coming right out of the box with these old-fashioned negative ads." is the bomb dropped by Scheiffer (As many right-wingers will say, Schieffer is a flaming liberal, working for the CBS- Communist Broadcasting System- home of Dan Rather and other pinkos.)

Scheiffer isn't particularly happy about being used to attack Obama.

I didn't think you could top that ad, but Obama isn't your typical Democrat and he's giving it back with footage that is even more embarrassing.

There is an unspoken rule that you must follow. Although it is an honor, never throw out the first pitch and never sing in public.

Where do I start?

Carl Lewis?

Ozzy?

Eli Young?

Roseanne?

If you pull it off, no one remembers. If you aren't anything but perfect, then you are a YouTube legend.

Mitt missed that memo.

Don't sing. Ever.

Romney isn't anything but an average guy, but it provides a perfect soundtrack if you want to slam the guy for his Cayman Islands accounts.

Bam!



Per the internets, Willard's online team wanted to strike back using Obama's recent attempts at singing (including Al Green's "Let's Stay Together".)  Copyright problems apparently closed those attempts down.

bedsitter23: (Default)
I made it to the Boone County Fair this weekend. I scored free tickets to see Bomshel. Bomshel is two not unattractive females (one who plays fiddle), and so it is easy to assume that they are part of that second generation that was inspired by the Dixie Chicks. (They were free tickets. Don't judge, GarbageCanMusic). In any case, they are cut out of that same template, which means they really aren't my thing, but at the end of the day, I'd rather watch them than some earnest guy in a cowboy hat. For that matter, I'd rather watch Bomshel than most of the current crop of Nickleback/Daughtry shaved head and tattoed "rawk" bands. The girls had tons of charisma and stage presence, the singer had some impressive pipes (Think of a country version of "Heart" and the backing band blazed.

Of course, while at the fair, I had to check out the local Republicans and Democrats' booths. Like any fair, these booths are manned by a ragtag bunch of volunteers- people who resemble your relatives and coworkers- but given Iowa's importance, any of these guys and gals could end up making one of those big decisions that change the World.

Anyway, this post isn't going to go the way I expected it. See, I fully expected the GOP table to not have any mention of their Presidential candidate. I was wrong, though ,sure enough, there was a poster with Romney's name alongside the rest of the field.

The GOP tent had that Iowa standby- the corn kernel poll - visitors take a kernel of corn and use it to make their opinion known. One poll gave passers by to vote for their favorite anti-Obama cartoon (clipped from the Des Moines Register most likely).

The revelation of course was their poll asking whether Obamacare should be repealed. From a quick look of my eye, it was about 50/50. Now, if I was running the GOP tent, I would have stuffed the ballot, so it looked 80/20 for repeal (I, of course, don't know that the ballot wasn't stuffed and it took that just to make it look even).

In any case, that's the slam dunk the Republicans are banking on, and based on this (very unscientific) poll, that may not be as an obvious public attitude that the GOP thinks it is.

The Democrat booth had lifesize cutouts of Barack and Michelle, and homemade buttons, most with a pro-labor message (It seems neither the DNC nor the RNC is particularly interested in spending money in this particular county).

I had to pick one up, just because, and it references the Romney 'dog on the roof of the car' story, and says "Don't Ride With Romney"

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Boone County is the birthplace of Mamie Eisenhower and is in Steve King's district (although you are just getting ankle deep into the true heart of Conservative Western Iowa), which may be an additional bad sign for the "Repeal Obamacare" poll.

King is running for re-election in a heated contest that has become the most money spent in an Iowan Congressional race.  GOP analyst Doug Gross does bring up a point that will be missed by people who do not live here.  he thinks that King being in danger will energize the Evangelicals, and they will also end up voting Romney (though they likely will hold their nose doing so).

All of this news comes out on the heels of good news for Iowa.  The fivethirtyeight blog (affiliated with the New York Times) defended Iowa's first in the state status (and status as a battleground state).  Iowa may not have the demographics, but its voters are politically diverse.

David Yepsen makes the case that Iowa is split equally between Democrats and Republicans, but also as a great deal of independent voters who sway back and forth from election to election.

Iowans are an independence bunch.  Our two senators are both loved and seem to have secure jobs- and couldn't be any different - the proud liberal Tom Harkin and the Conservative icon Charles Grassley.

Everything I have seen shows Obama with a slight edge here, but that element of independence does put this state in play, as most insiders will tell you.

bedsitter23: (Default)
We know we are in the midst of campaign season because the Obama and Romney ads run every hour and both men are making numerous trips here.  Obama was in cedar rapids this past week and his talking point was the Bush-era taxcuts.

I am told it's a negative campaign.  A local news channel points out Obama was in Cedar Rapids in 2008 and assaulted McCain for being negative, and in 2012, and in the last month, 76% of Obama's ads have some anti-Romney content.

Still, it doesn't feel particularly sleazy.  I guess after the caucus season with Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and Perry, it was bound to be tame.  I guess it is negative.  Obama's biggest campaign point is a clip of a nonchalant Romney saying "Planned Parenthood?  We're going to get rid of that.".  Romney has stuck with (for a second cycle of ads) with Hillary Clinton circa 2008 saying "Shame on you, Barack Obama".

Of course, things may just be about to get ugly.  Obama has struck at Romney again and again for outsourcing jobs.  Romney's defense is that it's untrue and says if he will say anything to get elected (which is why he plays the Hillary video), then he will tell lies again and again.

Romney's argument is that he left Bain in 1999, and that places like FactCheck.org have confirmed that there was no outsourcing at that time.  The question has since raised if Romney actually had left Bain as he said, or if he still played a major role.  Things are about to get sticky.

Regardless of the truth, I imagine Obama will stick with it, and Romney will be saddled with it.  Romney was a venture capitalist and a  hedge fund manager, and those are terms that give people a bad taste in their mouth.  Romney likely would have better time admitting to being a stripper than admitting a hedge fund past.

Things also will get worse as Restore Our Future are about to dump $7 million in swing states.  They got a lot of practice in last fall by roughing up Newt and Perry, and they have tons of money and support from the 8th richest American Sheldon Adelson who makes boatloads of money from innovative ideas a lean assembly production line  the latest technologies the fact Americans love to gamble.

Romney didn't make it to Iowa this week, but guess who did?

Rick Santorum.

Santorum spent two days in Iowa on a 'thank you' tour.  So yes, the 2016 Presidential election starts now.

He was here to promote local GOPers. 

Not Willard?

Rick was on local news and he said he was going to "hold (Romney's) feet to the fire" just as much as he would to Obama.

Uh-oh!

Of course, my favorite political story from Iowa this week isn't from Barry, Willard, or even Rick.  It's a candidate that was running for a State Senate spot.

I say running- past tense, because this week, she dropped her campaign because she discovered the US government was replaced by an illegitimate corporate government in 1871.

So instead of running for the state congress, she says she has been appointed as a US Senator in the Republic of the United States of America (the name sounds a bit Phantom Menace-ish to me, but whatever).

You can get read more about the Republic here and maybe you could be Attorney General of the Republic if you ask them nicely.

bedsitter23: (Default)
Besides the expected "Obama accomplishments" and "President' Romney's first 100 days" commercials, there's always room for negativity.

Obama is hitting hard on Romney's "outsourcing with Bain Capitol".  Willard has argued that what he did as governor wasn't outsourcing.  What happened was that  American workers lost jobs to Foreign companies.  The jobs stayed with the American companies, but they did go to workers overseas.  At the end of the day, I don't think the American people see much difference- and there's no argument to be made that it's okay to give jobs to Indian and Chinese workers even if they ultimately report to an American CEO.

I think this is something that resonates with the American public in economic times (He also throws in the whole 'saving the American auto industry' thing).  It may be rough that Obama has had three-and-a-half years to fix these things, but it is ultimately a winner for Obama, I think.

Mitt's superpac friends are already out with their "The Health care law is a tax" attacks ads as expected.  meanwhile, Mitt's campaign is calling Obama a dirty campaigner and airing old Hillary Clinton footage from the primary season of 2008 and her saying what a 'vicious liar' Obama is.  Oh snap!

Interesting play (the Obama vs Hillary campaign was brutal, if you recall), though I am not sure how effective it will be (Is it supposed to turn Hillary supporters and women over to Romney?  Is it supposed to convince everyone Obama is just a big meanie?)

Obama is in Iowa next week, and Romney made a stop here a few weeks ago.  That particular visit recalled back to the headlines the story of one Dianne Bauer.

Romney's trip brought him to the eastern Iowa restaurants and cafes he frequented during the caucus season.

Bauer's was one, and she experienced the hurricane that was Willard.  A damaged roof.  Stolen tablecloths.  Broken Personal heirlooms.  She swore she would never let Mitt near her cafe again.

"Stuff got broke. My table cloths they just got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room,"

She says the boom truck she allowed the campaign to borrow to gain access to the roof now has an 8-inch gauge [sic] in it that she'll have to take the time to repair.

The campaign told her to send them an itemized list of anything that was broken, and they would pay for it, but Bauer says that won't fix everything.

"My dad's picture, an emblem my dad gave me, it got broke. Those aren't things you can replace."

Bauer didn't get a in-person apology from the Presidential candidate who would be Keith Moon.  He did call to apologize, but I have seen her interviewed and she took it as an insult "I'm sorry your table cloths got ripped off, wadded up and thrown in the back room"  -Willard reportedly said.

No word on what damage was hailed upon Eastern Iowa in this last late June trip or whether anyone told Romney maybe he should just embrace the rock star image, as it makes him look like something approaching a human being.  Still, I never heard of any reports of cars being driven into swimming pools, so we will just consider that the last option wasn't picked.
 

bedsitter23: (Default)
Mitt Romney was back in Iowa to visit the part of the state that loves him most- Eastern Iowa (no coincidence, as far away from Steve King country as possible).

He got to take a boat tour of the Mississippi which allowed him to use metaphors like "anchor" (Willard likes metaphors.  He used "prairie fire" a lot in his last visit here).  His family life is his "anchor".  The Constitution is the country's "anchor".  I suppose a few of the Ferrymen liked the nod, but probably would have liked to seen more knowledge, and less "sounds like I was given a word by an adviser to stick in to my speech as much as possible.

The only other real revelation of Romney's recent trips was that if you were following him, you would have known a day or two before that he was speaking up Marco Rubio as a great Veep pick.  That's out in the open now.

Mitt is also hitting the airwaves hard which prominently features Obama's "private sector is doing fine" comment, which i can't blame.  it is probably what I would do.

The context of that quote is that jobs are being created in the public sector, but there is no job  growth at all in the private sector.   I think that is a fair assessment, but taken out of the context, it's pretty damning on Obama.

The GOP state convention was last week.  I probably should get around to making some mention of that.  As you may remember, Mitt Romney was declared winner caucus night, but Rick Santorum won when the recount finally went through.  However, if you've been following Iowa politics, it's no real surprise the real winner is Ron Paul, who has the best organization in the state over the last few months, and will be sending a large Iowan contingent to the GOP National Convention.


The other big news coming out of the state convention was wording voted onto the party platform, that states any Presidential candidate must show proof that they are a natural-born citizen.  Not giving up on that one, are we?  Rights of the unborn were huge as always, though once they are born, grow up, and commit crime, then f**k em', life isn't that precious.

I was downtown the morning of the convention and drove by the crowd gathered outside, and unfortunately by the time, I was back in the area that day, the protestors had moved on.  There of course were the pictures of unborn aborted fetuses and more Ron Paul signs that you can imagine.  There was a guy with a huge ANYBODY BUT ROMNEY sign, and he could have been anyone- Paul supporter, Democrat, Western Iowan fundamentalist.

The most memorable of anyone outside (and I wasn't going to take a picture in traffic) was a guy with a girl on a rope whose mouth was duct taped shut.  She held a sign that said SLUT FOR CHOICE.  I am guessing that she was a liberal protesting the opinion many of those gathered have about people who have abortions.  Maybe, I took it wrong, and it was a pro-lifer who really feels that way (though I am guessing that's not the case).

But, no, I didn't see any Nuns on a Bus.  Those sisters had left town by then after giving Steve King some what for, by spreading their word on good some ol' Catholic social justice.


bedsitter23: (Default)
I should probably give an update on where we are in terms of the 2012 election.

Both Obama and Willard made it out this way and gave speeches.

Team Smear the Queer
arrived first and littered a speech with plenty of metaphorical references to Prairie Fires.

Now as a native Midwesterner, Prairie Fires are a big, scary deal.  However, I doubt any Midwesterner would use that metaphor.  It sounds like something cribbed from a Cliff's Notes version of Iowa.

A drought of jobs!  A tornado of socialism!  A ragweed war in Afghanistan!

All of these are more in line with what I would say.

So when Team Pander to the Gay Community arrived, Barry O let out with a "Cow Pie of Distortion" blast.

Advantage: Obama.





(editor's note: I really don't believe Mitt is (still) a gay-hating bully or that Obama's pro-gay marriage statement is solely motivated by campaign strategy.  However, the flamebait was too alluring not to throw in)


- - -



We know we are in full campaign mode as both candidates are running constant ads here.  Both are epic American ideals- Obama with a "His mom woke him up early so he would study hard" story and Willard with a "What President Romney would do on Day 1" proposal.

It also should be noted that SuperPAC mudslinging has been wonderfully bipartisan with the Dems running ads attacking Willard on women issues (aka "Shiny Objects" ) and attacking his job creation performance as Governor of Massachusetts.



bedsitter23: (Default)
Iowa is expected to see a lot of Willard and Barry this summer.

That's because the New York named Iowa one of nine states that will determine the election.

The GOP feels good.  For the first time since 2006, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats (608,000 to 599,000).

Although, I feel it important to note that this year, we had an uncontested Democrat caucus, and Iowans can switch affiliation at caucus time.  I have to admit, I almost did it, because I didn't want to miss out on the fun (and to cast a vote for Buddy Roemer).

The Iowan GOP just got done with their annual Lincoln Day fundraiser.

The Lincoln Day fundraiser featured the Lt. Governor talking about overturning Obamacare, Sen. Charles Grassley spoke on defeating Obama, Iowa congressman Tom Latham attacked Obama on cap & Trade, Rep. Steve King grilled Obama on everything, and a handful of state and local GOPers talking about Obamacare and the importance of winning the state house.

It seems like something is missing, but I can't quite place my finger on it.

Ok, at least, someone said the R-word, even if it was an hour and 45 minutes into the 2 hour event.

It also should be worth noting that although the Governor has endorsed Mitt Romney (three months after the caucus), there are some major Iowa players who haven't.

Speaker of the Iowa house Craig Paulson is one who endorsed Gingrich during the caucuses and has yet to endorse Romney.

Maybe, local conservative blowhard Steve Deace was right, there's only one way Mitt can win - stop campaigning and legally change his name to "Not Obama".

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