bedsitter23

Cory Booker was here earlier this month and was the first "real" campaign event of the season (or at least more accurately, the first one covered by the media as such).

The Booker stop was very much in line with what one expects in the current climate. He is undoubtedly charismatic and a great speaker. As the New Republic eloquently put it, he does have a lot in common in Obama, lazy comparisons notwithstanding.

Still, Iowa is getting blitzed in October with potential candidates.  Iowans will be visited by Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Slawell and Andrew Yang.  Plus since nothing in life is guaranteed, it is also probably worth mentioning Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, maverick Ben Sasse, Paul Ryan, and former Independent for President Evan McMullin are also here this month.

Nothing too earth shattering here (mainly because most of the above have been here before), but the political junkie in me is excited by the first Iowa poll I have seen in some time.  This polled likely Democrat caucusgoers and I saw it on the excellent IowaStartingLine.com

It's way too early of course, but you got to start somewhere, so here goes:

The poll asked who Iowan Democrats wanted to see run in 2020 and seven candidates got significant support

Joe Biden   21%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Elizabeth Warren  7%
Kamala Harris 6%
Cory Booker 5%
John Delaney 1%
Kristen Gillibrand 1%

When asked where they were leaning, the race starts to shape up:

Joe Biden   37%
Elizabeth Warren  16%
Bernie Sanders 12%
Kamala Harris 10%
Cory Booker 8%
Kristen Gillibrand 2%
Eric Holder 2%
John Delaney 1%
Michael Avenatti 1%

Of course, Biden is older now than Reagan was in 1984, so things may still be up for grabs.

Which the poll asked if Young and Fresh Idea beats Old and Experienced (It did 48%-32%).

Also notably a Senator or Congressperson was preferred over a Governor or Mayor (41-31) and someone who would compromise to get things done was seen as preferable to someone sticking to their beliefs (61-34).  Also, not surprisingly in Iowa, ethanol was an issue with large support.

When given values statements, the most desirable characteristic was someone who made good judgments and listened and worked with others (94%) followed closely by someone who could heal racial, ethnic and partisan divides (91%) a climate change fighter (89%) someone with a focus on the cost of living/middle class (88%) and someone who believes in and willing to invest in science and research (85%).

Elizabeth Warren led the poll of "second choice" candidates, which was very similar to the above polls, and featured the same names, but also some significant support (1% or more) for Deval Patrick and Mitch Landrieu.

Strongly Favorable ratings looked like a good sign for some (given the caucus could always be in the middle of a snowstorm):

Sanders 37%
Holder 34%
Booker 31%
Warren 30%
Gillibrand 29%
Biden 24%

It also might to make a difference if someone catches the prospective caucusgoer's eye and those with weaker leanings decide to stray.

General favorable ratings followed a more expected path

Biden 94%
Warren 89%
Sanders 84%
Booker 68%
Holder 58%
Harris 52%
Gillibrand 44%

Since the nature of caucuses tends toward compromise, make note of those with significant unfavorable ratings

Avenatti 18%
Sanders 12%
Holder 10%
Delaney 9%
Landrieu 8%

Of course, I could do this all day, and numbers can be tinkered and toyed with to give you whatever results you want to see.  So, I will just end by adding that at this point in the election cycle in 2008, John Edwards was leading most polls.  So take that as your grain of salt, but also note that Barack Obama already had anywhere between ten and twenty percent support, so being a longshot even at this point may not pay off.

The Presidential campaign of 2020 is still a year too early to be taken in earnest, but there are touchpoints along the way, and a major one is the Iowa State Fair.  In the run-up during the caucus, it can be a scene of major moments, not just Rick Perry eating corn dogs (although there is that, but Mitt saying corporations are people, Barack playing bumper cars with his daughters and the Donald telling kids he's Batman and taking them on helicopter rides.

The soapbox is an exciting spot which puts candidates to the people, and gives you things like Romney's gaffe, and occasional a longshot speaking to a crowd of two dozen indifferent spectators.

This year actually had a crowd of presidential contenders (or hopefuls) along with those in the State Races.

John Delaney - John is the only major announced candidate and probably one of the highlights so far was him giving his soapbox speech and seeing John Boehner in his audience.  "I appreciate you coming out and supporting me.  I really do", Delaney called out to Boehner who was in Iowa and Nebraska that week.  The Cedar Rapids Gazette caught his ride on the great State Fair slide. They said he had admirers - one woman interviewed said his campaign ads were 'a breath of fresh air' and they also reported his trip to see the butter cow was uninterrupted.



Eric Swalwell - Eric is a Democratic congressman from California.  He is of note, for being besides Delaney, the politician to make the most appearances in state (at least 10 in a year and a half), so there are obviously some aspirations there.  He beat a long tenured Dem Pete Stark for his seat.  A quick glance of Swalwell leaves a bunch of mixed messages.  He's a Democrat but he's been accused of being a member of the Tea party (though this accusation was born from the Stark camp).  That said, his stances do seem to be liberal norms.  An original idea he has is a "mobile Congress" which would have members cast votes remotely and spend more time in their district.  He is also mentioned as a "moneyball" candidate taking on and defeating Stark.  Stark wouldn't debate Swallell, so he used YouTube to host a fake debate and had a campaign ran by political unknowns and high school volunteers, being outspent by hundreds of thousands, and waiting for his opponent to make mistakes.  It seems like he is certainly a long shot for the White House, but comes with some qualities the party certainly needs.  Swalwell has Iowa ties too.  His dad was police chief in Algona, Iowa- a southwest county seat.  He has a baby due in November and then he will make his decision.

Andrew Yang- I have mentioned Yang before.  He has announced his run, and although he has not held public office, who knows.  Yang's campaign is driven by the freedom dividend- a $1000 monthly stipend to every American adult.  He had about 50 audience members according to the Register.  To show he's serious about Universal Basic Income, he is supposed to give that much of his money to one resident of New Hampshire.

Eric Steyer - Tom's another rich guy- a billionaire hedge fund manager.  Like Michael Avenatti, he's been taking Donald Trump to task.  Steyer has been spending money on "Impeach Trump" ads.  While Tom Delaney has been the only one to run "Presidential ads", it's obvious that by Steyer putting his name on Iowa ads, he's trying to get some name recognition out of the deal.  Steyer's soapbox speech led with his Trump impeachment speaking points, calling it a 'patriotic act'.  Steyer spoke about healthcare for all and other Democrat issues, and is trying to turn out the youth vote; saying he will make a decision to run next year.  Steyer has enough clout that Conservatives are already taking shots at him.

Julian Castro -  Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and Secretary of HUD has a better name recognition than most on this list.  One of Castro's unique ideas is to to have college graduates roll their student debt into their mortgage payments, so they can pay both down over time.  He says he will make a decision about a Presidential run by the end of the year.  He feels it is a wide open race, and the national pundits are getting their lists wrong.

Steve Bullock- The Montana governor has spent quite a bit of time in Iowa.  His claim to fame is being a blue politician winning a red state (though it's not that big of a state).  The Register says two in attendance asked about his Presidential ambitions which he dodged.  He says he's "listening", but he certainly must be thinking about it.  Bullock took jabs at Citizens United and the effect of money in politics.  Bullock got a tour of the State Fair from Iowa's Attorney General Tom Miller, who undoubtedly would be an ally if he does run.

Evan McMullin- There was one non-Democrat at the soapbox who might have Presidential aspirations.  You might remember, McMullin coming out of seemingly nowhere to be a serious candidate in 2016.  Running as an independent with libertarian leanings, he finished with 21% of Utah's votes, but at one time, looked poised to maybe win that state and throw the election to Congress.  McMullin who was a hero to the NeverTrumpers says he's not running, but not ruling it out either.  McMullin says he's going to campaign for moderate Democrats and Republicans, and imagines someone will run in the primary against Trump, even if it might not be him.  He does say he will run for something again in the future somewhere.

Michael Avenatti did not appear on the soapbox, as far as I know, but went to the Fair (as did Boston Mayor Marty Walsh who says he was only here to campaign for Democrats, not to run for President).  It is to Avenatti's credit, that every article about 2020 seems to lead back to him.  The Kavanaugh confirmation hearings have only kept his name in the headlines.  Avenatti is charismatic (Everytime he speaks, he seemingly gains support).  He's serious (He said he wouldn't be here if he wasn't serious).  He has been making the rounds and taking it to 45 (a 'snake oil' salesman).  He was shaking hands with everyone and one woman admits she had no idea who he was, and assumed he was a local TV personality.

Certainly, he won't be boring.  His idea to take the fight to Trump is one that seems like fresh air to a party that generally remains passive.  Indeed, Avenatti's trip to Iowa even got support from right wing NeverTrumpers.

My Election 2020 blog has been dormant for almost six months.

Nothing wrong with that. It's still very early. John Delaney is the only announced major candidate and he ran articles earlier this year (which have resumed only recently) and has visited all 99 counties of Iowa, but that's about it for Iowa action.

I know there are other stories to cover, but I also know that when I go chasing random takes, that is when I have fallen for fake news. It is also when I am straying from what makes my take unique. So you won't see me writing about the election possibilities of Oprah Winfrey, The Rock, Mark Zuckerburg, or Mark Cuban. Nor, though I am tempted, to talk about action novelist Brad Thor or "Smack That" singer Akon who have made comments that they want to seriously run for President.

Still, the news is minimal, but I will attempt to cover the Summer 2018 news to date.

I don't see Bernie Sanders as a serious entrant in 2020, but until that is verified, we should still take him seriously. Sanders played a role in the 2018 Iowa primaries. I temper any "Sanders influence has fell off the charts" news by the fact that he backed some candidates who had hard roads ahead of them.

He supported Pete D'Allesandro in a primary for Iowa's 3rd District, a Republican held seat that looks has potential for upset. D'Allesandro finished third with 15%. D'Allesandro is a community activist, but could not compete with those who might have had similar Liberal credentials and better name. recognition

He also backed Cathy Glasson for Governor, who finished a seemingly quixotic second place (55%-20%) to Millionaire Fred Hubbell. Iowa has a Republican in the Capitol as well, but again, it looks like a possible upset for the Dems.

Jason Kander looked like he might be a possible candidate for the Democratic nomination for 2020. He founded an organization called Let America Vote. He spoke at the Iowa Democratic state convention, and most tellingly, he hired Des Moines Register writer Jason Noble to be his communication director. There's few people that know caucus better than Noble.

Kander reads like a Presidential candidate- popular in a Red State (Missouri- He was Secretary of State and almost unseated Roy Blunt in the US Senate - Kander 46% Blunt 49% in a state Trump handily won). He is a combat veteran and has been considered a rising force in the party. That said, Kander has fallen off the radar (at least this cycle), when he announced in late June that he was running for Mayor of Kansas City.

I leave you with a final story that I find particularly illuminating. There was one county in America that was a landslide for Trump in 2016 that had went overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012- the Northern Iowan county of Howard. National pundits were quick to find blame in why Hillary didn't win- Russian bots, Jill Stein, etc- but one would think that she would be wise enough to realize "It's the economy, stupid."

Howard County should be a lesson for those who study such things. Hillary carried it in 2008 (caucus), Obama afterwards, and then Sanders in 2016 (with Trump). These are the working class people who indeed want to "clean the swamp". These are the people who see Hillary as "the Swamp". Indeed, Hillary's message to Howard County in the election was about Trump's image. Trump talked economy.

Don't jump to that conclusion either, as the 538 article goes deeper. This was not a town where double-digit unemployment was the norm or that it was a county where business failure was leading to drug culture. Indeed, the economy was good, just stagnant. Not a place where no one has insurance, but a place where people have steady jobs, but their benefit costs steadily go up, taking more and more of paychecks. Not a place that was laying off workers, but a place where no one is hiring, and those with jobs have to pick up the slack.

For those interested in being in the White House, these will be the issues that you need to speak to.

The time honored caucus season has its moments and none is a better indicator that things are off and running than a bunch of donors trying to encourage a candidate to run.

Lest you think, it's too early, Joe Biden already has courters. Two Quad City men lead a group called Time For Biden and expect to have a Headquarters up and running by March 2018.

Now, granted, way more candidates are losers than winners in Presidential Elections. Still, it seems the ones that are courted the most are the biggest failures.

Arguably, the heaviest courted candidate before caucus was Chris Christie in 2016. He eventually ended up with less than 2 percent of the vote that year.

Remember Scott Walker's Presidential run? No? He was also heavily courted but didn't even make it to the caucus.

You can probably line up several heavy hitters: Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, Jeb Bush, Wesley Clark. of course, you can probably find a list of reasons why these campaigns crashed on landing. Still, it's not easy as it sounds. Thompson and Clark probably waited too long to enter, so no worry there.

Still, the Ridin' with Biden movement is getting some noise from Iowa Democrats. Iowa Governor Terry Branstad was named Ambassador to China by Trump, and although his Lieutenant Governor is now incumbent, it seems the state house is the most susceptible to a Democrat victory in almost a decade. We are barely into the Gubernatorial election of 2018, why do Democrats need to be focused on anything else.

For me, though, my biggest problem is the most obvious.

Time For Biden suggest that the best plan of victory is to get Biden a clear path to victory by scaring every one else away.

Not only is this not a good idea, this seems like a colossally bad idea.

I can quickly point out the years where there was no Presidential incumbent where there was a quick near anointing - 2000 Gore and 2016 Clinton.

On the other hand, when there's a crowd, it only brings all of the issues out and finds the best battle tested candidate. 1976 gave us 14 Democrats and a victory in the fall (and 2016's crowd of 15 GOP hopefuls only goes to further my point).

1992 was a year where the caucus and primary process found Bill Clinton.  Now, native son Tom Harkin won Iowa, but the process found a candidate who had the ability to win. 

Similarly, 2008, of course, made Barack Obama battle tested and ready.  Would John Edwards or Hillary Clinton been able to win in November?  certainly hindsight says Obama was the best candidate of the three.  I suspect Obama's campaign was also bolstered by competition from Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson, who forced him to earn the respect of their supporters. 

(To close out the modern day primaries that resulted in a White House residency- 1980 Reagan faced a battle from George Bush who won Iowa, a targeted candidacy from John Anderson and heavy hitters like John Connally and Howard Baker.  1988 and 2000 were less coronations for the respective Bushes than you remember.  The Senior had faced formidable competition  from not only Bob Dole but Pat Robertson.  The Junior had a crowd of candidates you have since forgot like Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer, and Libby Dole, not to mention John McCain)

In any case, more candidates may be better for the Party than fewer.  I understand that's an argument Time for Biden is likely unwilling to hear.  Nor are they unlikely to realize that the Democrats are the party of fresh blood, which is why they have had success in unknowns like Clinton, Carter and Obama, and second efforts from Gephardt, Edwards, and Gary Hart have bombed out. 

We can only watch and wait and see.

One thing about living in Iowa is that it is constantly election season; or perhaps it's just that politicians like to visit New Hampshire and Iowa as their pick of many possible winter vacation locations.

The conventional wisdom (as perpetuated by social media) is the Democrats are a party in ruins. This is the same thing I heard in 1984 with the Reagan landslide over Mondale. It's what we heard about the GOP in 1996 and 2012 as a two term President cruised to victory over minimal opposition.

The other talk is of the Bernie and Hillary split. I don't put much credence in this as I don't see either running in 2020 (both will be over 70). There might be hard feelings but I liken Bernie to Ron Paul, and his absence will lighten the memory.  Besides my gut instinct that it's no longer a thing, and your social media feed still reading like Summer 2016, recent polls indicate Dems are more united than Republicans.

In any case, the Dems are generally the party of the Fresh Face. It's the party of Kennedy. It's the party of relative unknowns like Clinton and Obama. It's why Gary Hart, John Edwards and Dick Gephardt were exciting the first go around, but were lagging in the polls on their second efforts.

This of course, doesn't explain HRC (or Gore or Mondale), but then again she didn't win, did she?

The GOP is the Party of Nixon. it is the party of 'doing your work and putting in your time". The Party of Nixon, Reagan, Dole, and most recently Romney and McCain- candidates who fell short in their initial run. Trump doesn't follow the rule of Conventional Wisdom, but when did Trump follow CW.

There are bellwether events on both sides before the election.  A prominent one was the Indianola Steak Fry which was hosted by longtime Senator Tom Harkin.  Harkin has retired but the Democrats still use the fundraiser to bring big names to the Hawkeye State.

This event took place recently and despite it being very early, it is still one of those necessary stops for those who are interested in plotting out a campaign.

This early on, the heavyweights like Kaine, Biden and Booker probably don't need to pound the pavement.  Still, those who are working from further behind are making their moves.  The excellent Des Moines Register correspondent Jason Noble reported on the event which I drew upon here.  Noble suggests some of those who attended are looking more at 2024 than 2020.

In any case, here's six people you have never heard of that could be our next President, and remember I said it first.

Tim Ryan- Everything about Tim screams Presidential candidate.  He is a Representative from Ohio.  He says he is not interested in running for Governor in 2018 (which frees him up for 2020), but he also says he is "probably" not running for President.  In any case, if he is not running, he has been busy making trips to Iowa and South Carolina to stump for local candidates.  Ryan's biggest moment has been after the election, when he ran against Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader (She promised more opportunities for junior Congressmen and he lost by a ratio of 2-1).  Ryan with his challenge of Pelosi and his trips to Carolina appears to be setting himself up as the kind of Pre-Obama Red State style Democrat that everyone thought was needed to win the White House.  He is in a district that went for Trump, so the GOP will be trying to beat him before he gets the chance to do more,

Seth Moulton- Moulton is a Rep from Massachusetts who fits even more in that Jim Webb Red State mold.  He's the subject of an article that is called Generals Love him, Top Democrats hate him.  He has unlikely friends like David Petreaus, David Gergen and Stanley McCrystal.  He had four tours of duty as a Marine in Iraq so he has been attacking Trump's military record.  He was also one of the most vocal opponents of Nancy Pelosi's re-election as Minority Leader.  He seems to have appeal for those red state Democrats who don't see Pelosi as a 'good kind of liberal'.  Although he is from a Liberal State, he is from the most Conservative of districts there.

Jeff Merkley- There will surely be a rush to grab Bernie supporters, and this Oregon Senator will likely be one beneficiary.  Merkley was the only US Senator to support Bernie Sanders.  Merkley, in those "gradecard" scores of Liberalism consistently ranks with Sanders and Warren as the Bluest of the Blue.  he has a Universal Health care system he calls "Medicare for All" and  is a strong voice for education spending and infrastructure.  Merkley has been quietly active in Iowa, so expect to hear more out of him.

Cheri Bustos - Illinois congressman Bustos based out of Peoria is probably not looking at 2020, but is a rising star in the Democrat Party.  She was touted as a possible candidate for the vulnerable state house job held by Republican Bruce Rauner.  She isn't running, which probably makes sense since it is an already a crowded field, one with a Kennedy, and he's not even the favorite.  She was one of only eleven Representatives to win in a Trump-won district, and she won it in a landslide.  She is a Pro-Choice Catholic, limited on gun control, pro-pipeline, and called the ACA "imperfect"- a center-left politician that can fight off the "out of touch Coast Liberals" .  She is the only Midwesterner in the Democrat House Leadership and may have some Red State appeal that others don't.
perception.

Pete Buttigieg - Although only 35 and his highest held position is Governor of South Bend, Indiana, Buttigieg deserves some notice.  He sounds like something off a check list- a gay ex-Navy Harvard graduate who has won big in a Red State.  Buttigieg impresses wherever he goes and has favorable quotes from the likes of David Axelrod and Jeff Weaver, the chairman of Sanders 2016 campaign.  He ran for DNC chair which put him on the radar, and is a voice for the millennials.  It seems unlikely a mayor of such a relatively small town would make the Big Run, but he has been in Iowa enough that he is definitely up to something.

Grace Meng- Unlike the other six, Meng did not attend the Steak Fry, but deserves mention as she was in the State during the same time, hosting a Women's Event as DNC Vice Chair.  Like Bustos, the article thinks Meng is likely looking further down the calendar than 2020.  As a congresswoman representing Queens, she is the highest ranking Asian American in New York City.  Her talking points have been building up a new coalition, criticizing Debra Wasserman Schultz' s tenure and saying the only way the Democrats can get back to winning is to bring in minority groups like Asians, Latinos, and African Americans.