2016 Campaign Starts Now: Only one Poll matters

After the talk of polls in yesterday's post. I figured it was once again time to break out the Al Bedsitter Bumper Sticker poll.

I introduced this in 2012 for the general election and predicted Obama's victory which means I have been 100% accurate.

Of course, it's flawed, and I gave some of the reasons here. 

I believe in the veracity of the poll because of the simple fact that only the most dedicated voters will choose to represent themselves by applying a bumper sticker to their car.  Fads come and go, but loyalty is a sticker (I also made the choice to include yard signs as well).  

I do have to allow myself that I have to drive safely first of all, and so if I am uncertain of a sticker it won't count (This year has been particularly rough, and so when I see a sticker that says simply "Bernie" or the only word I can make out is "Rand", I only assume that it's for those candidates.

In any case, I stand by doing my best.  I consider myself in prime position- in Des Moines in the most purplish of states- or on Interstate 80 the road that goes from San Francisco to New Jersey.

Ok, so it's caucus time, so I am hesitant to say that this is a "can't miss" predictor.  However, I do stand by it as some sort of indicator.  It does show the devotion that follows certain candidates (even when pundits say Bernie Sanders has no chance).  Also, conventional wisdom suggests an establishment candidate like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush will win the nomination.  Or when someone says Donald Trump's support isn't for real (it does exist). How can that be when no one loves them enough to affix their name to their SUV.

Anyway, let's get to the results, shall we:

Bernie Sanders 7
Ben Carson 7
Donald Trump 5
Hillary Clinton 3
Rand Paul 2
Ted Cruz 2
Bobby Jindal 1

Others getting votes

Barack Obama 8
Ron Paul 1
Mitt Romney 1

Yes, even now, I would say no one could beat Obama.

Will Carson and Sanders win the nomination (or even Iowa).  I am not sure, though to be fair, they were leading various polls during the last three months while I was conducting mine.

In terms of percentage, things look like this:

Bernie 70%
Hillary 30%

Carson 41%
Trump 29%
Cruz 12%
Paul 12%
Jindal 6%

There's been a lot of talk about neither Carson or Trump being able to finish.  Maybe Cruz indeed is the strongest challenger.  Indeed, maybe there is a base of support for Paul or Jindal. 

I have been keeping track since Labor Day or maybe before.  I will reset everything and  maybe post again when we get closer.  We are in the final 100 day count before the caucus in Iowa.  Perhaps, you got a glimpse of what is to come right here