![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
2016 Election Begins now: The Big 1
Dec. 8th, 2013 11:12 amI did a post on the ten Republicans who are most poised for a run for President based on actions in Iowa.
It never occurred to me to do the same on the Democrat side.
There is clearly one name and everyone else (even when you throw Biden in the mix).
Maybe it is because Chuck Schumer was here last month and is already telling Iowans to vote for Hillary in 2016.
Still, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't consider other potential candidates for 2016.
Martin O'Malley (Governor of Maryland) would seem to be the person making the most obvious moves toward courting Iowans. I also count Joe Biden for reasons I have posted about before, and would be more surprised if he doesn't run than if he does.
Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has been making comments like he wants to visit all 99 counties of Iowa, which seems an unlikely vacation dream even if you live in Montana.
Missouri Senator Claire McKaskill is one of the people spearheading the "Madame President" project by Emily's List which strives to put a woman in the White House. One wonders if like Cheney's hunt for a Vice President, if McKaskill will find herself tasked with leading the charge.
Still, it all comes down to Hill Rod, and there's plenty of people (perhaps you, dear reader) who find this academic.
James Strohman's excellent article in the local indie newspaper gives some quick and hard facts you have probably forgotten in why HilRod is not a shoo-in.
They include:
-Hillary finished third in 2008. We remember she lost in Iowa to Obama, but we forget she was also eclipsed by John Edwards She carried 29% of the vote- Obama took 38% and Edwards took 30%.
-Bill Clinton did not take an active role in the 1992 caucus. No one did. Iowa favorite son Tom Harkin ran for President and everyone else took a pass, thus he never had to build a group of supporters in the Hawkeye State.
-The Obama vs Hillary race was brutal. Obama voters never really forgave Hillary for the things she said about Obama in that 2008 race. Hillary called Obama 'too divisive' and 'unelectable' among other things. If you weren't here in 2008, you have likely forgotten and forgiven, but it was clearly a 'us vs them' mentality that has stayed.
-As much time as we spend talking about how the Iowa GOP race is beholden to the far Right, the Dems are equally dictated by the Left. Would Hillary's moderate views find her votes.
-Strohman postulates that Biden would be unbeatable as well as suggesting the Emily's List movement would find a viable candidate in Elizabeth Warren or someone similar. Bad news for Hillary
-HillRod hasn't spent much time in Iowa like Biden or O'Malley. Iowans like to be courted. Even then, one suspects Hillary wouldn't want to do the footwork to make up that ground either. Clearly, even if she was willing, 2008 showed that she was not good at running that ground game, which was something Obama excelled at. Bypassing Iowa would not be a smart option either as it has been a momentum loss for the likes of Giuliani, McCain, and Huntsman to name a few.
-The best news for Hillary are the national polls where she crushes Christie, Paul, Rubio, and the rest of the GOP field. Unfortunately, the same polls in 2008 said the same thing
It all leads to a less clear 2016 picture than many across the nation have already arrived at.
It never occurred to me to do the same on the Democrat side.
There is clearly one name and everyone else (even when you throw Biden in the mix).
Maybe it is because Chuck Schumer was here last month and is already telling Iowans to vote for Hillary in 2016.
Still, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't consider other potential candidates for 2016.
Martin O'Malley (Governor of Maryland) would seem to be the person making the most obvious moves toward courting Iowans. I also count Joe Biden for reasons I have posted about before, and would be more surprised if he doesn't run than if he does.
Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer has been making comments like he wants to visit all 99 counties of Iowa, which seems an unlikely vacation dream even if you live in Montana.
Missouri Senator Claire McKaskill is one of the people spearheading the "Madame President" project by Emily's List which strives to put a woman in the White House. One wonders if like Cheney's hunt for a Vice President, if McKaskill will find herself tasked with leading the charge.
Still, it all comes down to Hill Rod, and there's plenty of people (perhaps you, dear reader) who find this academic.
James Strohman's excellent article in the local indie newspaper gives some quick and hard facts you have probably forgotten in why HilRod is not a shoo-in.
They include:
-Hillary finished third in 2008. We remember she lost in Iowa to Obama, but we forget she was also eclipsed by John Edwards She carried 29% of the vote- Obama took 38% and Edwards took 30%.
-Bill Clinton did not take an active role in the 1992 caucus. No one did. Iowa favorite son Tom Harkin ran for President and everyone else took a pass, thus he never had to build a group of supporters in the Hawkeye State.
-The Obama vs Hillary race was brutal. Obama voters never really forgave Hillary for the things she said about Obama in that 2008 race. Hillary called Obama 'too divisive' and 'unelectable' among other things. If you weren't here in 2008, you have likely forgotten and forgiven, but it was clearly a 'us vs them' mentality that has stayed.
-As much time as we spend talking about how the Iowa GOP race is beholden to the far Right, the Dems are equally dictated by the Left. Would Hillary's moderate views find her votes.
-Strohman postulates that Biden would be unbeatable as well as suggesting the Emily's List movement would find a viable candidate in Elizabeth Warren or someone similar. Bad news for Hillary
-HillRod hasn't spent much time in Iowa like Biden or O'Malley. Iowans like to be courted. Even then, one suspects Hillary wouldn't want to do the footwork to make up that ground either. Clearly, even if she was willing, 2008 showed that she was not good at running that ground game, which was something Obama excelled at. Bypassing Iowa would not be a smart option either as it has been a momentum loss for the likes of Giuliani, McCain, and Huntsman to name a few.
-The best news for Hillary are the national polls where she crushes Christie, Paul, Rubio, and the rest of the GOP field. Unfortunately, the same polls in 2008 said the same thing
It all leads to a less clear 2016 picture than many across the nation have already arrived at.
