![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
The big news over the weekend was the Des Moines Register poll results. There are other polls, sure, but The Register gets credit for being one of the important one.
Little surprise, it showed Herman Cain winning.
Cain 23%
Romney 22%
Paul 12%
Bachmann 8%
Gingrich 7%
Perry 7%
Santorum 5%
Huntsman 1%
Not Sure 15%
Okay, so obviously, it is too close to call between the two top runners, but this is a caucus, so as important as a preference is, a second choice is equally important.
When you add percentage of first and second choices, you get something like this:
Cain 42%
Romney 33%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 20%
Bachmann 16%
Perry 16%
Santorum 9%
Huntsman 3%
No big news from the poll, which was four months removed from the last Register poll. Romney literally has not moved since June (23% then). Cain appeared to flip positions completely with Bachmann (He had 10% in June. Chely had 22%). Ron Paul gained 5 points. Newt stayed at 7%. Santorum moved one point, despite trying really, really hard.
Of course, we know today's headlines weren't "That Herman Cain is charismatic, and helluva campaigner" or "Let's take an in-depth look at Herman Cain's financial policy and why it is caught fire".
No, it was "Herman Cain sexually harassed women, and then bought their silence".
What does this mean for Cain? I have to admit I have no idea.
On would assume, he would drop a few points, but I am not completely convinced. Republicans like a good 'persecution by liberal media' story and I guess I won't believe his numbers drop until I see it, or more story details come out.
Cain is already reaping the benefits of his recent lead; namely that he doesn't have to go to Iowa anymore.
The swap with Bachmann's place has been a confusing one for me. I am not surprised that it happened, but I figured it would be from a gaffe from Michele. Instead, it was more of an inexplicable 'we fell out of love' feeling that happened when Rick Perry joined the race.
Some clue might come from this telling poll question:
What is most important to you:
Experience in Business 71%
Held Elective Office 22%
Also, telling is that Iowans really weren't that in love with Chely after all, and they're likely to turn on Cain, too.
Is your mind made up?:
Could be persuaded to change: 59%
Mind Made Up: 25%
No First Choice yet: 15%
I don't think Michele is quite in 'It's so terrible even the tea party wants her to drop out' territory, but she is probably getting close to that.
Poor Rick Perry looks to be done, even as he bombards Iowa with his ads promising he would lead us to 7.5% percent unemployment.
Ron Paul is in attack mode advising while it's cool to hate on the government, he's been hating government for 20 years. I think it's pretty effective except that whole part where you realize Ron Paul was old 20 years ago.
I am not convinced that this all means Newt Gingrich becomes the nominee, but he was arguably the best speaker at the recent Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition forum, and the Register's poll says if Cain's supporters would desert him, 23% would go the Gingrich camp.
Newt also does well in the 'Person we like the least' polling.
Cain 3%
Santorum 5%
Gingrich 9%
Huntsman 9%
Perry 11%
Paul 12%
Romney 14%
Bachmann 16%
There are plenty of other fun findings.
Tea Party Favorite
Cain 27%
Romney 15%
Paul 13%
Bachmann 10%
Among Men
Cain 26%
Romney 18%
Among women
Romney 27%
Cain 17%
Among under-35's
Romney 27%
Cain 21%
Paul 15%
Among Seniors
Romney 33%
Cain 15%
Among Born Again Christians
Cain 26%
Bachmann 11%
Romney 9%
Santorum 9%
Perry 7%
Definitely going to caucus
Cain 27%
Romney 10%
