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2016 Election Begins now: The Big 10
Nov. 24th, 2013 10:59 amJennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register wrote an article this week about the ten people who have spent time in Iowa and made significant public appearances and media stops while in the state.
I give you the 'ten that are likely in'.
Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Scott Brown
Each man has appeared in crowds of 450-800 with the exception of Santorum and Brown. Santorum, of course won the caucus by starting off in much the same way, so you can't count him out (especially if Huckabee and Palin move out of the way). Brown is a prime example of why you can't predict these things too far ahead. He was a golden boy who lost his national spotlight. Pundits like Brown, though. They say he's smart and he was named "Sexiest Man Alive" by Cosmo in 1982 (really), so never count out 'good looking politician'.
Palin drew a crowd of over 1000, although the article suggests at this point she is probably more a fundraiser star than an actual candidate. I have to think that's true. It would all be downhill for her if she was actually elected. Barry Obama told her that.
I saw Palin's appearance on local press and she actually called Obama a "Silly Goose" (of course, she did) which suggests to me at this point, Palin is playing Tuna Fey playing Palin. Palin also told the Iowa crowds that Obamacare was like slavery. No, that's okay, because she prefaced it by saying "This isn't racist, but..."
It sounds like Huckabee is more likely to run that he looked four years ago, which means he was smart not to run against an incumbent. Walker has made comments that no one will vote for a member of Congress (playing the outsider/Governor card). Cruz and Paul (and Marco Rubio, for that matter) are first term Senators (which was what Obama was when he first announced in 2007) which may not be a good thing..
Jacobs calls Cruz the one with the most buzz, and maybe that it is true. Cruz seems to be the one acting most like a candidate. I don't know what that translates into. I see him a bit as a Tim Pawlenty- the guy who is trying too hard to court the prettiest girl in the room. Pawlenty spent and spent and visited every weekend, and the GOPers were just sick of him. Cruz may end up like that.
Jacobs makes no mention of Chris Christie, which is fine. The one thing I have learned from living through 3 election cycles in Iowa is that the 'National' candidate doesn't automatically get any support. Rudy Giuliani is the best example of that, but look at those who should have won. Kerry over Dean. Obama over Hillary. Huckabee over McCain. Santorum over Romney. None of those results should have went that way, but in each case, the candidate with better ground support was triumphant.
Lastly, I can't finish a post on 2016 without a nod to the documentary film Caucus which is getting some buzz. The best story is of how Michele Bachmann tried too hard, and the bizarre behavior of her husband. One can't just zoom through Iowa's 99 counties and assume that is enough.
As the campaign goes on, Bachmann's husband Marcus becomes part of the story. During the final month before the caucuses, the Bachmanns stormed through all of Iowa's 99 counties in 11 days, turning their campaign into a perpetual blur of exits from the massive bus, hurried handshakes and a hasty retreat back into the vehicle. I personally remember watching Marcus Bachmann literally pushing Michele out the front door of a café one of those days with a smile plastered to his face, trying to give the appearance of engaging a voter in conversation.
I give you the 'ten that are likely in'.
Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Scott Brown
Each man has appeared in crowds of 450-800 with the exception of Santorum and Brown. Santorum, of course won the caucus by starting off in much the same way, so you can't count him out (especially if Huckabee and Palin move out of the way). Brown is a prime example of why you can't predict these things too far ahead. He was a golden boy who lost his national spotlight. Pundits like Brown, though. They say he's smart and he was named "Sexiest Man Alive" by Cosmo in 1982 (really), so never count out 'good looking politician'.
Palin drew a crowd of over 1000, although the article suggests at this point she is probably more a fundraiser star than an actual candidate. I have to think that's true. It would all be downhill for her if she was actually elected. Barry Obama told her that.
I saw Palin's appearance on local press and she actually called Obama a "Silly Goose" (of course, she did) which suggests to me at this point, Palin is playing Tuna Fey playing Palin. Palin also told the Iowa crowds that Obamacare was like slavery. No, that's okay, because she prefaced it by saying "This isn't racist, but..."
It sounds like Huckabee is more likely to run that he looked four years ago, which means he was smart not to run against an incumbent. Walker has made comments that no one will vote for a member of Congress (playing the outsider/Governor card). Cruz and Paul (and Marco Rubio, for that matter) are first term Senators (which was what Obama was when he first announced in 2007) which may not be a good thing..
Jacobs calls Cruz the one with the most buzz, and maybe that it is true. Cruz seems to be the one acting most like a candidate. I don't know what that translates into. I see him a bit as a Tim Pawlenty- the guy who is trying too hard to court the prettiest girl in the room. Pawlenty spent and spent and visited every weekend, and the GOPers were just sick of him. Cruz may end up like that.
Jacobs makes no mention of Chris Christie, which is fine. The one thing I have learned from living through 3 election cycles in Iowa is that the 'National' candidate doesn't automatically get any support. Rudy Giuliani is the best example of that, but look at those who should have won. Kerry over Dean. Obama over Hillary. Huckabee over McCain. Santorum over Romney. None of those results should have went that way, but in each case, the candidate with better ground support was triumphant.
Lastly, I can't finish a post on 2016 without a nod to the documentary film Caucus which is getting some buzz. The best story is of how Michele Bachmann tried too hard, and the bizarre behavior of her husband. One can't just zoom through Iowa's 99 counties and assume that is enough.
As the campaign goes on, Bachmann's husband Marcus becomes part of the story. During the final month before the caucuses, the Bachmanns stormed through all of Iowa's 99 counties in 11 days, turning their campaign into a perpetual blur of exits from the massive bus, hurried handshakes and a hasty retreat back into the vehicle. I personally remember watching Marcus Bachmann literally pushing Michele out the front door of a café one of those days with a smile plastered to his face, trying to give the appearance of engaging a voter in conversation.
The constant travel and lack of sleep turned Marcus punch-drunk. One of the most amazing moments in the film is when Marcus tries to convince a middle-aged man to vote for his wife as Michele talks at ear-splitting levels about gas prices. He takes the man's hand, and begins to try to thumb wrestle him. The man laughs, but withdraws his hand, and Marcus picks it back up, saying, "One more time and it's Michele, ok?"
"I don't know what that is," the man says.
"It's thumb wrestling. It's thumb wrestling," Marcus offers.
"I don't have a thumb," the man responds. "They took the bone out of there."
Marcus turns away to a man across the table, and tries to get him to thumb wrestle. The man just shakes his head.
