Caucus Update: "Is it better to have run and lost than to never have run at all"

It is beginning to look a lot like a Willard nomination for the GOP.  He had a rough week, despite winning decisively in Florida.  He has had a rough time of overcoming his "Let them eat cake" vibe with his "Corporations are People" quote and his $10,000 bet offer to Rick Perry.

This week he had a "Mitt Romney doesn't care about poor people" moment.

Like his "corporations are people" quote, I think Willard is honest that he didn't mean it.  Essentially, he meant to reach out to the middle class.  On one hand, he has been campaigning for President for ablout five years now; but I do feel sorry for anyone who has to do live so much of their life on camera.

Mitt had just bounced back from the admission that he pays less than 15 percent for his taxes.  that was good fun.  The Conservatives blowhards were outraged, despite spending the last few years begging to make it so the rich's tax burden was equal or less to everyone else's.  13.9%?  Isn't that the way it is supposed to be so Mitt can be out there spreading wealth around?

Mitt may have a hard time reaching out to the plebians.  Paul Begala and others have commented that Romney fails the "Have a Beer with" test.  Of course, as a Mormon, the point is moot; but even if he had the occasional Coors, you have to admit he comes across more John Kerry than Dubya.

Probably not helping is Romney's endorsement by Donald Trump.  We heard all week that Trump was going to introduce Newt, but there it was, The Donald throwing his lot in with Willard as the guy who could beat Obama.  I have been waiting for the Trump independent run, and like Brett Favre, I'm not going to believe any different until I actually get to Election Day.

In any case, I am not sure that Trump will still be on the Romney bandwagon in November, or this relationship will go the way of so many pro wrestling tag teams- the dreaded doublecross.

It's hard to say that Willard wouldn't have won the whole thing (assuming Newt doesn't) in a different scenario.  Mitch Daniels gave the Republican response to the State of the Union- a mountain of a task and did well.  he has been on all sorts of media, and is a really likeable guy whether he is making fun of Trump or hanging with Classic Rock Morning Radio personalities.  Daniels of course was scared off by the Far Right in Iowa (rightfully, Santorum won) and of course, is in a better spot now than if he had run (Boy, do I know that is right!).

the most intriguing proposition is the one that is spouted by our local Conservative loudmouth (the afternoon drive one, not to be confused with the mid-morning local Conservative loudmouth or the late-night local Conservative loudmouth).

Sarah Palin in September headlined a Tea Party rally in Indianola, a month after the Ames Straw Poll, when Rick Perry had thrown his hat in the ring, and things were just taking off.

The aforementioned loudmouth introduced Palin to the Tea party masses (so he should know) and said the speech sounded like everything a Campaign Announcement Speech would be except for that last "So today, I'm announcing my campaign.." sentence at the end.

Simon Conway (aforementioned radio host) doesn't speculate on why she pulled the plug, but said on his show, that it sounded like it was written to kickstart a campaign.

Hard to say why Palin decided not to run (if she so surely did- and let's face it, she spent too much time in Iowa this fall.  The Machine Shed restaurant has excellent food, but c'mon..).  Perhaps, she was scared of the Perry juggernaut, which seemed impossible to beat.

Even harder to determine how Palin would have done.  On her best days, she could poll only between 10 and 15%, and was usually fourth of fifth in order of preference.  It's also tempting (but next to impossible) to compare Palin to Bachmann.  It is unlikely that Palin would have ever put in as much groundwork as Michele did.  In all matters of fact, I would say Bachmann was a stronger candidate, and an inference can be made that Palin would not have done any better in her run.  On the other hand, the things that eventually killed any shot Bachmann ever had (a strong National presence, and thus electability) is something Palin would not have struggled with.  Perhaps even the Far Right in Iowa would have gotten behind Palin and not Santorum.  

It's too late now, of course.  By that I mean, it is mathematically too late.  Still, you wonder if Our Sarah isn't kicking herself.

Caucus Update : "Math is Hard" edition

This week, Matt Strawn stepped down as the head of the Iowa Republican Party. 

While the Iowa GOP is arguably stronger than when Strawn took over (as he says it is), Strawn's legacy will be the clusterf*ck known as the 2012 caucus.

To review, the timeline went something like this:  On Caucus night, Strawn announces Romney has won the caucus by eight votes.  Two days later, a Ron Paul supporter says he saw a discrepancy between what was reported to the state GOP and what he wrote down to post on his Facebook.  So, we were told to wait until the votes were certified. 

When the votes were certified, the totals indicated that Santorum had won by 34 votes, but Strawn announced that Santorum could not be declared the winner, essentially naming Romney the winner of an election in which he got the second most votes.  Strawn gave in to pressure (as there would be) to name Santorum  the actual winner.  It was during this time, that we found out eight precincts in five counties had not gotten their forms in (Not that it made much difference, they would have actually increased Santorum's lead to 69 votes).

That will be Strawn's legacy.  I don't think it will cause Iowa to lose it's first in the nation status.  However, it's a solid red mark against the Hawkeye State and it's misunderstood-as-it-is process.

The Des Moines Register broke down what happened in the four counties.

Emmet County- 1 precinct-28 votes- The County chairman's uncle passed away and so she had a volunteer mail the paperwork in, while she left town.  The county chairman suggests taking a picture of the Form E and e-mailing it.  She also suggests that this incident will scare away potential workers- the caucus is dependent on volunteers in the first place.

Pocahontas County- 1 precint 17 votes- Santorum and Perry campaign representatives oversaw the voting.  However, at the end of the night, the chairman didn't get one of the forms back.  He wouldn't name who was the precinct committee-person who didn't get the form back.

Franklin County-  1precinct 19 votes- the Chairwoman swore she sent all the forms in, but she didn't doublecheck.  She admits the state could have lost it, but she takes full responsibility.

Cerro Gordo County-   1 precinct 22 votes- The chairman said he double checked everything, saved copies, and it's likely that a page slipped out when the State GOP opened it.

Lee County- 4 precincts, 182 votes- The chairman doesn't know what happens, refusing to blame the volunteers who are people he "go(es) to church with and go(e) fishing with."  A college poli-sci class watched over the night.  The chairman did discover the form was missing on caucus night, but found it dishonest to write something up himself.

A solution for 2016 has been found.  You see everything that gets filled out on Caucus night is filled out in triplicate (with carbon copies).  Everything that is, except for the actual sheet where you write down the votes.  That sheet is just a white piece of paper- not yellow or pink or anything out of the ordinary.  Make the Form E to be filled in triplicate.  Problem solved.

Then again, why not make the whole thing electronic.  The Ames Straw Poll does that, and it counted 17,000 votes in less than a hour.  The Iowa caucus total votes are ten times bigger, but totals weren't tallied into way into the early morning of the next day.