**AL BEDSITTER EXCLUSIVE: EITHER OBAMA OR A REPUBLICAN WILL BE PRESIDENT IN 2013: 100% GUARANTEED**
It was controversial sure, but let's look at the facts.
From September 3 through September 28, every major pol had Obama ahead of Romney (CNN had 50-46, NBC had 51-44 to name, but two).
On September 25 my findings came out putting Romney ahead of Obama. The first major poll to put Willard ahead.
...but not the last.
On October 4, Investors Business Daily, PPP, Zogby, and Rasmussen (four major, independent pollers) all declared Romney ahead of Obama by two to four points (a fifth poll released that day, Gallup had the two candidates locked in a tie at 49% each).
So, not am I just correct, I am quicker to gathering the pulse.
This week, I did something slightly different. I walked the local neighborhood looking at the yardsigns. Besides, not everyone is going to vote, but one hopes that those motivated enough to put up a sign will.
I have talked about my precinct before. In 2004, it went for Dubya, and in 2008, flipped Blue to Obama. If one could predict where these neighbors' heads are at, then one could probably call the election over and done.
So?
Obama 10
Romney 8
There was also one Ron Paul for President sign. I am not really sure what do with that bit of info. Is that person going to write in Paul (likely), hold their nose and vote Romney, or pull the level for Gary Johnson.
I would guess that first option. I have mentioned here numerous times that more Ron Paul signs were in view this Spring than there ever were before the Caucuses (like you know, when that stuff mattered).
Let's put it like this:
Obama 52.6%
Romney 47.4%
Gary Johnson (?) .2%
It is an interesting development that there are so many Obama signs out now. The Blue and White classic looking Obama-Biden signs sprouted quickly, and though I reported awhile back that Romney signs outnumbered Barry;s 3-1 across the Des Moines metro area (which was true at the time), the Dems have been busy.
Indeed, although I don't have numbers (like I got from my walk), Barack surely has the lead.
Still, that Ron Paul sign started to bug me.
You see, plenty of people put up signs, but sometimes they don't post that Presidential one. All politics are local, and there are at least four races around here that are closely contested.
Surely, if you are voting for say, Kevin Koester, Republican candidate for state house, you would also vote for the corresponding party at the top of the ballot, right?
So, let's look at those numbers.
Houses with Republican candidate yard signs: 16
Houses with Democrat candidate yard signs: 12
That pollwould indicate a Republican preference of 57%-43%.
One house had both a sign for Koester and his opponent John Phoenix, which either means that a Republican and a Democrat live there, the house is empty, or the Homeowner will put up any sign that anybody asks him to.
Of course, I feel that even these numbers are a bit inconclusive, as a good chunk of the GOP signs belonged to the Republican candidate for Sheriff. We do have a close race for Sheriff, but in that race, voters are not voting for the Party or the Platform, they are voting for the individual. in local races, a candidate for Sheriff could be a neighbor, a friend, or someone who shares a church or school.
That of course, doesn't take in account people who are independent and vote all different ways on their ballots, or Republicans who unhappy with Romney, might cast a vote for Johnson or Virgil Goode.
I am happy with both of my polls above. i absolutely, positively guarantee that one of them is right.